The View from Right Field

Roots Tours

Ever since Alex Haley’s famous book and miniseries “Roots,” people have said they were going on their own “Roots tour.”¹  Not just African-Americans going to Africa, but people going to Italy or England or countries in Scandinavia.  They want to see where their ancestors came from.  Sometimes they try to find long-lost relatives who stayed behind in the “old country.”  They look for customs or approaches to life from those countries.  For a while, it was “hygge” from Denmark.  Now, some people are talking about “lagom” from Sweden.

We have never gone on a trip like that.²  In fact, when people say they are going on a Roots tour, I respond that we have gone on a Roots tour – to Cooperstown.  To the Hall of Fame.  While that is a bit of a joke, it is also sort of true.³ 

The Hall of Fame – And My Favorite Cub

With the announcement yesterday of Derek Jeter’s election to the Hall of Fame on his first try, my thoughts went to other players elected to the Hall on the first ballot.  While recently elections to the Hall on the first ballot have not been unusual (there were twelve in the 2010s and ten each in the ‘00s, ‘90s, and ‘80s), back in the day a first ballot election was pretty unusual.  In fact, after the first election in 1936,¹ nobody was elected to the Hall of Fame on the first ballot until 1962.  If you wonder about who might have missed out on a first ballot election during that time period, let me mention one name: Joe DiMaggio.

But, as I said, in 1962, two players were elected on the first ballot: Bob Feller, with 93.8% of the votes, and Jackie Robinson, with 77.5%.²  Only two more players were elected on the first ballot in the 1960s, though: Ted Williams and Stan Musial.  And in the first seven years of the 1970s, only three were elected on the first ballot: Sandy Koufax, Warren Spahn, and Mickey Mantle.

35th Annual Cubs Convention – January 17-19, 2020

Here is my annual report on the Cubs Convention.  As in the past, I will talk about things that didn’t make the mainstream media.  First, though, and indicative of the tone of the Convention, here is my tweet from last Friday morning, before the Convention started:

“In 1998 the Cubs signed Rod Beck the first day of the Cubs Convention! At the 2011 Convention the Cubs brought back Kerry Wood! This year they traded Tony Kemp for Alfonso Rivas? @Cubs #CubsCon #WheresOurWheelbarrowsFullOfMoney”¹

One of the most interesting sessions was an interview they had with Miguel Montero.  Miggy, if you remember, hit that two-out, 0-2-count, bottom-of-the eighth-grand slam to win game one of the 2016 NLCS, as well as driving in the eighth run in Game 7 of the World Series.  But when Miggy was asked what his biggest memory of the 2016 postseason, he said another one was catching the bottom of the ninth in Game 7.  It was the first inning he had caught in the entire World Series.  The score was tied.  One run, and the game, and World Series, was over.  And his pitcher was crying (because of the bottom of the eighth).²  

Getting to Carbon-Free

Carbon-free.  That is the goal.  Companies, countries are setting a goal of becoming carbon-free.  Some are aiming at 2030.  Others 2040.  And others still 2050.  But regardless of the date, the goal is the same.  To become carbon-free.  To not only reduce the amount of carbon being put into the atmosphere each year, but to get to zero.

But how we get to carbon-free is important, too.   And that is where it gets tricky.  The point is that carbon in the atmosphere doesn’t go away (or at least not very fast).  While getting to carbon-free is important to minimize the effects of climate change, how much carbon we put into the atmosphere while we are getting to carbon-free is important, too. 

The Killing of Qassem Soleimani and the Dog That Didn’t Bark

“The Adventure of Sliver Blaze,” one of the most popular Sherlock Holmes stories, involves the theft of a famous race horse, Silver Blaze, and the killing of its trainer, just before an important racer.  In a conversation with a Scotland Yard detective, Sherlock Holmes explains a key clue:

“Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?
Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.
Gregory: The dog did nothing in the night-time.
Holmes: That was the curious incident.”

Youth Climate Activists Call for a Halt to Fossil Fuel Investment – Right Now

Greta Thunberg and twenty other youth climate activists have issued a letter in which they “demand” (their word) that, at the World Economic Forum meeting scheduled for later this month in Davos, Switzerland,

“all companies, banks, institutions and governments immediately halt all investments in fossil fuel exploration and extraction, immediately end all fossil fuel subsidies and immediately and completely divest from fossil fuels.”

And they want these things done “right now” (their emphasis).¹

While they go on to say that they understand “that the world is complicated and that what [they] are asking for may not be easy”, they don’t seem to care.  The climate crisis “is an emergency”, and it seems like nothing else matters.

Might It Have Been Possible to Oppose Donald Trump Without the Fury?

As we enter the last year of either Donald Trump’s presidency or President Trump’s first term, it seems like an appropriate time to look back on the last three years.  First, in looking at my posts about President Trump, I see I started out complaining a lot about what he did and his style of doing it.  Just look at some of the titles of my posts in his first nine months:

• “Donald Trump at Seven Weeks. This Is Not Working.”
• “Donald Trump Meets Angela Merkel. Things Keep Getting Worse.”
• “Donald Trump: Will the Embarrassment Ever End?”
• “@realDonaldTrump: Such a Small, Small Man”¹

But eventually, I got tired.  It wasn’t making a difference (obviously), and I was saying the same thing over and over again.  I got bored writing it.  I can only imagine how bored people got reading it.

A Few Thoughts on the Killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani

1. It seems to me that, with a proper plan and an appropriate long-term strategy, the killing of Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Qassem Soleimani could work out well for the United States and other people and countries opposed to the theocratic and totalitarian policies of Iran’s government, especially their external aspects.  Whether the Trump administration has the people to come up with such a plan and strategy and whether Donald Trump has the experience, patience, and long-term commitment to follow through on such a plan and strategy is a real question and concern.¹

2. As for the criticisms about killing, or assassinating, a general of a country with which we are not at war, I would say that what constitutes “war” is a lot different today than what it was in even the first half of the twentieth century.  General Soleimani organized a lot of attacks on United States soldiers and our friends and allies.  He seemed to think he was at war with us.  In today’s world, that may be enough.

Illinois and Stein’s Law

Herbert Stein, economist and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Presidents Nixon and Ford, is probably best known by many people today as the father of Ben Stein (of “Ferris Buehler's Day Off” and “Win Ben Stein’s Money” fame).  But Herb Stein is also known for “Stein’s Law”: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Which is actually a lead-in to Illinois’s budget and unfunded pension liability mess.  Unless you believe that Illinois’s unfunded pension debt will never be a problem, because there will always be enough money in the fund to make current pension payments,¹ you would say that the present situation cannot go on forever; i.e., Illinois cannot continue to not properly fund its pension obligations.  But looking at the people we have in Springfield, you would despair of that ever happening.

Illinois Is Starting on the Next “Great Experiment”

On January 16, 1920, the Eighteenth Amendment came into effect, launching Prohibition across the country.  It was called, by some, the “Great Experiment.”  Needless to say, it did not work out as expected and, within fourteen years, it was repealed.

On Wednesday, Illinois began its own “Great Experiment,” though this one involves legalization, not prohibition, and it involves marijuana, not alcohol.  The question is how this new “Great Experiment” is going to turn out.

Inequality, Social Mobility, and a “Fair Go”

A new post on the New Zealand idea of a “fair go” is up on my other blog, “A Different New Zealand.”  You can find it here.

The 2010s In Review: At Least There Was One Night in Cleveland

With the 2010s coming to an end, the media is full of decade-in-review articles.  (Normally, December brings year-in-review or best-of-the-year articles, but once every ten years, you get an entire decade.)  And the articles about the 2010s have been pretty grim:  Syria.  Climate Change (i.e., everybody talks about it, but nobody actually does anything about it¹).  Populism.  North Korea.  Ukraine (i.e., Putin’s invasion; not just Trump’s telephone conversation).  ISIS.  Trump.  China (i.e., worsening economy and increasing repression).  Impeachment (since January 20, 2017).  Trade Wars.  Racism/Wokeism.  And more.

But as even The Wall Street Journal has noted, there was one moment in the 2010s when everything was wonderful and nothing else mattered.²  A moment when one hundred and eight years of waiting was finally rewarded.³  A moment that will last a lifetime for anybody who was watching or listening – and caring.  Because it finally happened: THE CHICAGO CUBS WON THE WORLD SERIES!

What Christmas Is All About

Things have been a little hectic lately (and I hope to get back to posting next week), but I don't want to miss my annual Christmas Eve post:

Charlie Brown:  "Isn’t there anyone who knows what Christmas is all about?"

Linus: "Sure, Charlie Brown, I can tell you what Christmas is all about.  Lights, please?

"And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.  And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them.  And they were sore afraid.  And the angel said unto them, ‘Fear not, for behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.  For unto you is born this day in the city of David a savior, which is Christ the Lord.  And this shall be a sign unto you.  Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.’  And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, ‘Glory to God in the highest, and on Earth peace, good will toward men.’

"That’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.”

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PS: "A Charlie Brown Christmas" is also to be treasured because it is one of the few places today where you can hear the story of our Savior's birth in the King James Version, which has a magnificence in its language that is timeless. 

Things have been a little hectic lately (and I hope to get back to posting next week), but I don't want to miss my annual Christmas Eve post:

Charlie Brown:  "Isn’t there anyone who knows what Christmas is all about?"

Linus: "Sure, Charlie Brown, I can tell you what Christmas is all about.  Lights, please?

Are the Cubs Really Going to Trade Kris Bryant?

The question around baseball, at least in the Chicago papers, has been whether the Cubs will trade Kris Bryant.  The idea, as I understand it, is that, with two years left before he becomes a free agent, trading Kris Bryant will get you a whole lot of prospects/up-and-coming players.  The current Cubs baseball management team wound up trading middle-range starting pitchers for prospects in 2012, 2013, and 2014.  And the results were great: Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Pedro Strop, Addison Russell, and more.¹  Of course, there were also players you never heard of again.  But, given that we were going nowhere in those years, it was a good move.

The difference is, hopefully we are not going nowhere in 2020.  There is no reason why the Cubs can’t get to the postseason in 2020.  In fact, they ought to get to the postseason, especially if Kris Bryant is playing for them.  And who do they need playing for them in the postseason?  Kris Bryant. 

The Effect of “Exit” and “Voice” on Financial Irresponsibility and Corruption in Illinois

“Exit” and “voice” are the two main ways that people can react to problems they have with business or government – or pretty much anything.  With “exit,” you just leave.  If you don’t like one cell phone company, you go to another.  If a food store doesn’t have the products you want or if the fruits and vegetables aren’t fresh enough, you go someplace else.

When it comes to government, the same theory applies, though it isn’t quite as easy.  Still if things are bad enough, you leave.  As Tim Harford noted in FT Weekend,¹ “[a] citizen of the US can move to a different state; a citizen of the EU can move to a different country.”  Venezuela is the current champion in this category.  Literally millions of people have left Venezuela because conditions are so bad there.

Is This the Afghanistan Bug-Out I Have Been Worried About?

While he was in Afghanistan for Thanksgiving last week, Donald Trump said that peace talks would resume with the Taliban.  But, as normal for President Trump, things about the resumption of talks are a little unclear.  According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump said:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal – we’ll see if they make a deal.  If they do they do, and if they don’t they don’t.  That’s fine.”

The Washington Post quoted the President as saying:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal and we’re meeting with them and we’re saying it has to be a cease-fire and they didn’t want to do a cease-fire, and now they do want to do a cease-fire.  I believe it’ll probably work out that way.”

Climate Change: Getting It Done Versus Merely Adopting Plans

With the world meeting in Madrid for the annual U.N. Climate Change Conference, it’s time repeat something I said back in July (and alluded to in October): If we want to cut emissions, the key is not what we do in the United States.  It’s both what the United States does and what we help the rest of the world do.

The discussions in Madrid are about how everybody needs to have a plan to substantially reduce carbon emissions, or even go net carbon-free, by 2050 or sooner.  But what we need aren’t plans.  (Ask President Emanuel Macron of France how his plan to cut carbon emissions by, inter alia, raising gasoline taxes went.)  We need realistic actions, actions that will actually happen, to get emissions down.  And not just in the United States and Europe.

If “What’s the Matter with Kansas?”, Then What’s the Matter with Me?

In 2004, Thomas Frank wrote a book entitled What’s the Matter with Kansas?¹  The main idea of the book was that Republicans had used issues like abortion, school prayer, etc., to get working class and other Kansans to vote Republican, against their economic interests.

I thought about this book over the weekend when I did the monthly review of our 401(k)s.  I am lousy at investing, so we just own index mutual funds (some in stocks and some in bonds).  The thing I noted was how high the stock market is.  It is amazing to me, but the stock market has seemed to take off since Donald Trump was elected.  I don’t understand it, and I don’t know why it keeps going up,² but it has.³

Michael Bloomberg’s Race for President: As If People Needed Another Reason to Doubt the Mainstream Media

With Michael Bloomberg announcing he is going to run for president, the editorial and research wing of his mega-media company has a bit of a problem.  (I think it is fair to call it a “mega-media company” since its annual revenues are over $10 billion.  While most of that money comes from people who subscribe to Bloomberg LP’s business terminals, the editorial and research group has 2700 journalists and analysts.¹  That’s a mega-media company.)

Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement is a problem for Bloomberg LP because Mr. Bloomberg has a policy that journalists who work for his company can’t say anything bad about him.  Mr. Bloomberg explained it last year: “[Q]uite honestly, I don’t want the reporters I’m paying to write a bad story about me.”²  To show you how far Mr. Bloomberg’s definition of a “bad story” goes, the Bloomberg Billionaire List doesn’t include Mr. Bloomberg, even though Forbes says he the eighth richest man in the world.

Hong Kong: Freedom’s Light Still Shines

Three weeks ago, on the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, people were wondering what went wrong.  Democracy is on the decline in eastern Europe and elsewhere, while nasty populism is rising all over the world, including the United States.

But then, when things seem dark, a tiny ray of light shines, a delicate little flower blooms.  In 1977, it was Vaclav Havel and Charter ’77 in Communist East Europe.  In the 1970s, it was Spain, Portugal and Greece leaving dictatorships behind and becoming free.  Next were Taiwan and South Korea.  In 1994, it was Nelson Mandela in the South Africa of apartheid.