The View from Right Field

Is This the Afghanistan Bug-Out I Have Been Worried About?

While he was in Afghanistan for Thanksgiving last week, Donald Trump said that peace talks would resume with the Taliban.  But, as normal for President Trump, things about the resumption of talks are a little unclear.  According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump said:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal – we’ll see if they make a deal.  If they do they do, and if they don’t they don’t.  That’s fine.”

The Washington Post quoted the President as saying:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal and we’re meeting with them and we’re saying it has to be a cease-fire and they didn’t want to do a cease-fire, and now they do want to do a cease-fire.  I believe it’ll probably work out that way.”

Climate Change: Getting It Done Versus Merely Adopting Plans

With the world meeting in Madrid for the annual U.N. Climate Change Conference, it’s time repeat something I said back in July (and alluded to in October): If we want to cut emissions, the key is not what we do in the United States.  It’s both what the United States does and what we help the rest of the world do.

The discussions in Madrid are about how everybody needs to have a plan to substantially reduce carbon emissions, or even go net carbon-free, by 2050 or sooner.  But what we need aren’t plans.  (Ask President Emanuel Macron of France how his plan to cut carbon emissions by, inter alia, raising gasoline taxes went.)  We need realistic actions, actions that will actually happen, to get emissions down.  And not just in the United States and Europe.

If “What’s the Matter with Kansas?”, Then What’s the Matter with Me?

In 2004, Thomas Frank wrote a book entitled What’s the Matter with Kansas?¹  The main idea of the book was that Republicans had used issues like abortion, school prayer, etc., to get working class and other Kansans to vote Republican, against their economic interests.

I thought about this book over the weekend when I did the monthly review of our 401(k)s.  I am lousy at investing, so we just own index mutual funds (some in stocks and some in bonds).  The thing I noted was how high the stock market is.  It is amazing to me, but the stock market has seemed to take off since Donald Trump was elected.  I don’t understand it, and I don’t know why it keeps going up,² but it has.³

Michael Bloomberg’s Race for President: As If People Needed Another Reason to Doubt the Mainstream Media

With Michael Bloomberg announcing he is going to run for president, the editorial and research wing of his mega-media company has a bit of a problem.  (I think it is fair to call it a “mega-media company” since its annual revenues are over $10 billion.  While most of that money comes from people who subscribe to Bloomberg LP’s business terminals, the editorial and research group has 2700 journalists and analysts.¹  That’s a mega-media company.)

Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement is a problem for Bloomberg LP because Mr. Bloomberg has a policy that journalists who work for his company can’t say anything bad about him.  Mr. Bloomberg explained it last year: “[Q]uite honestly, I don’t want the reporters I’m paying to write a bad story about me.”²  To show you how far Mr. Bloomberg’s definition of a “bad story” goes, the Bloomberg Billionaire List doesn’t include Mr. Bloomberg, even though Forbes says he the eighth richest man in the world.

Hong Kong: Freedom’s Light Still Shines

Three weeks ago, on the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, people were wondering what went wrong.  Democracy is on the decline in eastern Europe and elsewhere, while nasty populism is rising all over the world, including the United States.

But then, when things seem dark, a tiny ray of light shines, a delicate little flower blooms.  In 1977, it was Vaclav Havel and Charter ’77 in Communist East Europe.  In the 1970s, it was Spain, Portugal and Greece leaving dictatorships behind and becoming free.  Next were Taiwan and South Korea.  In 1994, it was Nelson Mandela in the South Africa of apartheid.

“For Laws and Lech, Basil and Borders Opened – Thanks!” – Joan Beck’s 1989 Thanksgiving Column

As I mentioned back in 2009 (and 2010 and 2011), each year at Thanksgiving, Joan Beck, a columnist for the Chicago Tribune (among other things), would write a special column of Thanks.  This year being the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, I thought it appropriate to reprint her column from Thanksgiving, 1989:

“As we gather together to count the Lord’s blessings, 368 years after the first Thanksgiving Day, we are grateful, O God, for perestroika if it works and glasnost if it’s real, for the liberating breaches in the Berlin Wall and the integrated beaches in South Africa, for summits and summers and sunrises and symphonies and for the innate yearning to be free that no regime can trample forever.

It’s Hard to Believe How Poorly MLB Treats the Minor Leagues – Except It’s Not

In an effort to show that it can make a World Series with record-low (or near-record-low) ratings plus a potential cheating scandal (at least it was the team that lost the World Series) not look so bad, Major League Baseball has decided to kill 42 minor league teams, out of 162 total (i.e., over 25% of minor team baseball teams).  All in an effort to save $20 million a year.  In other words, MLB as a whole would save less money per year than the Philadelphia Phillies are paying Bryce Harper.

Rob Manfred, head of MLB (and apparent head executioner of MiLB), said that the minor leagues had expanded in ways that

“produce[d] travel that is not acceptable for professional players. Bus rides, long, six, eight, 10 hours and trust me, in a lot of cases, it's not on a luxury cruise liner, it's on a school bus.”

Crossing the “Great Trump Divide”

I have been somewhat negative on Donald Trump/President Trump over the last four years (how’s that for understatement).  However, the fact I don’t like President Trump doesn’t mean I don’t like people who like President Trump.  Which is an important distinction.

When I see signs around town that say, “Hate Has No Home Here,” I wonder if that extends to people who support President Trump.  I see churches that are “welcoming,” but I wonder if they are welcoming to people who voted for President Trump.  It sort of reminds me of the song Tom Lehrer sang back in the 1960s, “National Brotherhood Week,” which he introduced as follows:

South Korea. North Korea. Friends and Enemies. Or Is it Vice Versa?

Donald Trump’s policy on Korea continued in the normal way this past week: giving concessions to the North and making absurd demands on the South.  I assume the concessions to the North are because President Trump “loves” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and thinks that reaching an agreement with the North will cement his reputation as the greatest President ever – though I also assume President Trump already thinks he is.  The demands on the South are because President Trump always thinks somebody is ripping us [him] off and doesn’t understand that foreign policy, and peace, is not a real estate deal or casino contract.  More:

First, North Korea.  Earlier this week, the U.S. and South Korea postponed a major training exercise that was set to begin on Monday.  Defense Secretary Mark Esper said it was “an act of good will … and advancement of peace” but it was not a concession to the North.  As if anybody believes that.  The U.S.  and South Korea cancelled defense exercises last year and nothing happened.  Actually, that is not entirely true.  When we had denuclearization talks with North Korea in October, the first meeting in seven months, North Korea walked out, accusing the U.S. of not making enough concessions.  So, we postponed the military exercises this month.  But it wasn’t a concession.  (If you believe that, I’ve got a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.)  And, according to The Wall Street Journal, “A few hours after [Defense Secretary] Esper’s remarks, North Korea’s foreign ministry said the regime’s will to maintain diplomacy with the U.S. was shrinking.”  The art of the deal, huh?

Is There Any Program Illinois Politicians Can’t Find a Way to Corrupt?

Sixteen years ago the City of Chicago began installing red-light cameras.  The idea of red-light cameras is simple and sounds good: make sure cars stop before turning right on a red light.  But Chicago being Chicago, and Illinois being Illinois., once red-lights cameras arrived so did corruption involving red-light cameras. 

In 2016, a Chicago city worker and the CEO of a red-light camera company were convicted of participating in a kickback scheme involving the awarding of Chicago’s red-light camera contract.¹  Now, the Chicago Tribune reports that, according to testimony in a court case, SafeSpeed, a company with a number of red-light camera contracts in the Chicago suburbs, paid the police chief of Justice, Illinois (I know, “Justice, Illinois” is a contradiction in terms) a fee of 1% of the revenues it collected from other cities that the police chief was able to convince to sign a contract with SafeSpeed. 

A Few Thoughts on Impeachment – And Process

It’s hard to come up with things to write about with impeachment sucking all of the oxygen out of the news.  So, let me make a few comments on impeachment and the impeachment process.  Before I start, though, let me note, as readers of this blog know, I did not vote for Donald Trump in 2016 (I actually decided that in 2015), and I will not vote for him in 2020.  To my comments:

1. So far, President Trump has not done anything that has surprised me all that much.  Appalled me, yes.  Surprised me, no.

Scaredy-Cat Protestors – And the Role of the Press

With the Donald Trump impeachment hearings on the TV and all over the news, there is plenty of time to do other things.  But let me talk about something possibly related to the news on the impeachment of President Trump: the media and who to believe.  There was a brouhaha over the weekend at the student-run Daily Northwestern, in Evanston, Illinois.  The editorial staff at the paper ran an editorial apologizing for the harm they supposedly caused when the paper ran/tweeted photos of people protesting a speech by former Attorney General Jeff Sessions.  Apparently, some of the people in these photos felt they were harmed by the publication of the photos.  On Sunday, the paper apologized, saying in part:

“We recognize that we contributed to the harm students experienced, and we wanted to apologize for and address the mistakes that we made that night – along with how we plan to move forward.”

The Fall of the Berlin Wall: 30 Years On. #BerlinWall30

This Saturday is the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.  Readers of this blog will know that I have written about the Wall a lot.  You can find what I wrote on the 20th and 25th anniversaries of the fall of the Wall by clicking on “Berlin” in the list of Categories in the right margin.  The 25th anniversary, which we were lucky enough to be in Berlin for, was especially great.  But things seem to have changed since then.

Events are going the wrong direction in parts of eastern Europe and eastern Germany.  Viktor Orban is solidifying control in Hungary.  Law and Justice recently won re-election in Poland.  And in eastern Germany, the AfD increased its vote in state elections.  The populism that has come to the West is also increasing in eastern Europe.  

Illinois Politics: The Gift That Keeps on Giving

As you may know, Chicago’s teachers’ strike ended last week.  (The teachers were only doing it for the children, of course.)  One of their demands was an elected school board.  (The mayor presently appoints the board.)  The union wants a 21-person elected board; all the better, I suppose, to ensure that the union will be able to help elect a majority of the board.  Which would mean that during the next contract negotiation, the teachers’ union would be on both sides of the table, negotiating with itself.  Which should make the negotiation easier – and increase business for one-way U-Haul rentals out of town.

Michael Madigan, Speaker-for-Life¹  of the Illinois House (sort of like Xi Jinping in China), has said he would support legislation creating an elected school board in Chicago.  However, given that the feds and the FBI seem to be investigating Springfield, as well as the Chicago City Council (wow, they must be busy), the possible problem for such legislation is whether Speaker Madigan will have a quorum by the time the legislative session starts in January.  On Friday, State Rep. Luis Arroyo, an assistant majority leader in Speaker Madigan’s House of Representatives, resigned after being charged with bribery last week.

The “Silent Majority” Speech: Fifty Years On

Fifty years ago today, Richard Nixon gave his “Silent Majority” speech, one of his most famous speeches and source of his, almost certainly, most famous phrase.  Unlike presidents today, and before, President Nixon wrote the “Silent Majority” speech himself and came up with the phrase, “the silent majority,” himself.

For the speech itself, see here:

Evan Thomas, former Newsweek editor and best-selling author, notes that President Nixon’s approval rating went up from 52% to 68% after the speech.  For Mr. Thomas’s comments on the speech and more about President Nixon, listen to this podcast from the Richard Nixon Foundation.

For more on the Silent Majority speech, see Pat Buchanan, Nixon aide and speechwriter, here and this article/video from the Nixon Library and Museum. 

Three Years Ago: A Day and Night to Remember

Trump, Kurds, and Political Principles: Another Question

While I think the U.S. effort in Syria is/was¹ a really good idea, I have wondered what the legal basis for it is.  My best guess is that, if people who understand that kind of question in the Trump administration were asked, they would point to the resolution adopted by Congress right after 9/11.  In other words, the resolution adopted eighteen years ago to go after Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.  While the resolution was obviously not worded that narrowly, the question still arises whether it really covers what the U.S. troops are/were doing in Syria.

Which got me to thinking.  Given the resounding vote in House of Representatives last week in favor of the resolution criticizing President Trump for withdrawing U.S. troops from Syria, maybe now is an appropriate time for Congress to pass a resolution authorizing and approving what we are/were doing in Syria.  And given the unanimous support among House Democrats for the resolution criticizing President Trump last week, I would expect no problem passing such a resolution this week or next.
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¹ I’m not really sure if it is over or not.  See here.
PS  I assume my sarcasm was obvious, but, in case it wasn’t, I wanted to make it clear.

General Electric and Illinois

General Electric has had problems over the last few years.  Management mistakes, etc., have been so bad that last year GE cut its quarterly dividend to one cent a share.  Then, earlier this month, Larry Culp, GE’s new CEO announced that, in an effort to cut debt and reduce liabilities, GE would freeze all of its remaining defined benefit pension plans.  The plans had already been closed to new participants in 2012, but now the participants would no longer accrue new benefits under the plan. 

According to the Wall Street Journal article on GE’s action, as of 2017, only sixteen Fortune 500 companies provided traditional defined-benefit plans to new hires, and 42% of Fortune 500 companies with defined benefit plans, whether open or closed, had frozen them in some way.

Is Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Going to Turn Out Good?

No, I don’t really think that President Trump’s foreign policy is going to work – or that it will turn out well.  Janan Ganesh, in the Financial Times, however, comes up with one way President Trump’s foreign policy may work out:

“The world resented American omnipresence before it complained about American dereliction.  Inadvertently, Donald Trump is forcing the end of this ambivalence.  The more the US president unwinds his country’s external commitments, the more other nations see the resultant damage to the global commons. … Countries with historic qualms about US power are going through a chastening education in life without it.

The perverse result: an America First president could bequeath his successor a world that is keener on US leadership than it was before. …

Trump, Kurds, and Political Principles

The House of Representatives voted 354 to 60 on Wednesday to oppose President Trump’s withdrawal from Syria and to call on the Administration to, I don’t know, do something about it (whatever that would involve).  The Democrats voted 225 to 0 to support the resolution, not surprisingly.  More interesting, perhaps, was the 129 to 60 vote among House Republicans in favor of the resolution.  (At least on this, Democrats will find it hard to complain that Republicans are not standing up to President Trump, though I am sure some will try.)

The most interesting question, however, is what would have happened in a reverse situation.  What if a President Warren (or Obama) abandoned allies in Syria (or elsewhere)?  Republicans would, I am sure, vote near-unanimously to criticize a Democratic president.  But how many Democrats would do the same?  Would they vote unanimously in favor of our abandoned allies, as they did with Donald Trump as president?  Would even 68% of the Democrats vote against a Democratic president, as House Republicans did here against a Republican president?

Principle is always easy to stand up for when you get to rip on your political opponents at the same time.  It is harder when it’s the other way around.