The View from Right Field

Break

I will be taking a break until the end of October.  Obviously, I haven't been posting much lately, and things will be busy for the next few weeks, so I might as well make it formal.  By the end of October, I hope to be able to get back to posting more.  See you then.

Who Are the Stupid People in Illinois?

Yet another Illinois public official has been indicted for corruption, and once again it is somebody whose parent was a public official, too.¹  It is amazing to me that these kids, who have seen so many people, including friends of their parents, indicted and convicted of corruption, wind up being accused of doing the same things themselves.  It’s like they haven’t learned anything.  But when I said to my wife, “How stupid can these people be?”, she said maybe they’re not the stupid ones.  Maybe the stupid ones are the people of Illinois, who keep electing people like this.
------------
¹ In this case, it is State Senator Emil Jones III, son of former Illinois Senate President Emil Jones, Jr.
UPDATE (9/26/22 10:20 pm): A version of this post was published in the "Voice of the People" in today's Chicago Tribune.  See here.

Are the Sanctions Against Russia Working?

The Economist asked this question in its August 27 issue.  The answer was equivocal:

“On a three- to five-year horizon isolation from Western markets will cause havoc in Russia. …

The trouble is that the knockout blow has not materialised. Russia’s GDP will shrink by 6% in 2022, reckons the IMF, much less than the 15% drop many expected in March, or the slump in Venezuela. Energy sales will generate a current-account surplus of $265bn this year, the world’s second-largest after China. After a crunch, Russia’s financial system has stabilised ….

It turns out the sanctions weapon has flaws.” 

Winning Elections in the Age of Trump

In Friday’s Wall Street Journal, Kimberley Strassel wrote about elections across the country, from Washington State’s Senate to gubernatorial elections in Kansas and Florida where Republicans are pushing education issues.  In Washington, long-time incumbent Patty Murray is ahead of her Republican challenger by only three points with Seattle teachers having recently voted to go on strike.

Ms. Strassel says that that “[a]ny Republican who isn’t making criticism of failed Covid education decisions – and promises of school choice and parental involvement – a lead message is committing an election foul.”  The problem is that Donald Trump doesn’t agree.  Former President Trump tells us there is only one issue: the stolen election of 2020.  And far too many Republicans agree with him.

Queen Elizabeth II, RIP – and Duty

There will be articles about Queen Elizabeth II everywhere and by just about everybody.  I just had one comment about her; the thing that was, to me, most impressive about her: Her sense of duty and her performance of it. 

Queen Elizabeth II was born into a family and, upon the abdication of her uncle, into a job she never chose.  She didn’t ask to become queen.  She didn’t run for election to become queen.  It was just her duty because of who she was.  And she did not complain.  She just did her duty – and she did a magnificent job of it.

Any of us would be proud if, after we pass away, we are deemed to have done the duties in our lives even one-tenth as well as she did hers in her life.

Biden Is Forgiving Debt for Former Students. He Should Tell Colleges to Cut Tuition for Current Students.

President Biden gave former college students a $10,000 gift ($20,000 in certain cases) if they borrowed money for college and haven’t paid it back.  But he didn’t give anything to current college students, which doesn’t seem fair.  So here’s my idea: For current students, he should force colleges to cut their tuition by $2500/$5000 a year (which is $10,000/$20,000 over four years).  It wouldn’t be that hard for the colleges.  Purdue has kept its in-state tuition at $9,992 for ten years.¹  Colleges can cut their costs – if they want to.  They could reduce the number of administrators; they could get a few teachers to teach an extra class; they could figure out ways to reduce fees.  There’s lots of things they could do.

And if President Biden’s lawyers can come up with a way to claim he has the legal authority to forgive all that student debt, I am sure they can come up with a way he can force colleges, at least any college that gets money from the federal government, which is just about all of them (except, maybe Hillsdale College), to cut their tuition.  And that wouldn’t even cost the federal government $300 billion.
--------
Note: I hope readers understand this post is a bit of a joke – except for the idea that colleges could cut their tuition.  They could - if they wanted to.  That's not a joke
¹ See here and here.

Questions Re Joe Biden’s Student Loan Bribe

Obviously, President Biden’s student debt cancellation plan is a campaign bribe.  That’s not a question.  My question is: how is it supposed to work?  Is the idea that the people getting the bribe (i.e., getting some part of their student loan forgiven) will vote Democratic in November, as a thank you to the President, when they would have otherwise voted Republican/other?   Or is it that people will come out to vote, once again, as a thank you for the bribe, when they otherwise would not have voted?

Also, I wonder what the expected return is on the bribe.  In other words, what’s the cost of each additional vote, whether from somebody who would have otherwise voted Republican/other or somebody who wouldn’t have voted at all but for the bribe?  Given that the Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that the President’s plan could cost up to $300 billion, it would seem that these could be some pretty expensive votes.   

“US Politics Is a Road Paved in Gold for Consultants”

This is a letter to the editor published in the Financial Times on August 23.  The letter was slightly edited, mostly for the better, except in one case: At the end of the first sentence, instead of “the ignorant”, I would have preferred “those who sound ignorant to them” (or something like that).  Such wording much better reflects my point – and, I think, the point Edward Luce was making in his column.

“I agree with Edward Luce that there is ‘electoral gold’ for the right in the contempt America’s cultural elites show towards the ignorant.  (‘The truth that set Cheney free’, Opinion, August 18)  However, one should not ignore the regular gold.  There is money in electoral outrage, for both candidates and perhaps especially their consultants.

Helping Europe Stand Up to Putin’s Blackmail – Is Helping Us, Too

Chris Giles wrote in the Financial Times last Wednesday on how Europe could withstand a Russian cutoff of natural gas deliveries this winter.¹  Basically, it requires product substitution (products requiring lots of natural gas in their production should be made elsewhere), more coal needs to be used for power in the short run, Germany needs to not shut down their three remaining nuclear power plants, etc.  Starting in January, ships that can liquify liquid natural gas (LNG) for Germany will go online. 

Which got me thinking: What are we doing to help out in this situation?  If LNG can help, what are we doing to increase our exports of LNG?  Obviously, we should have already been doing things like this, but it’s not too late to start now.  We just need to hurry.  We need to not get caught up in permitting delays and environmentalist objections.  This is a war.  We need to do what is necessary to win it.  It won’t take that long.  Maybe a year or two.  We can still meet our environmental goals.  But right now, we need to not let Vladimir Putin get away with blackmail and intimidation – and war.²
--------
¹ Chris Giles. “Europe can withstand a winter recession,” Financial Times, August 10, 2022.  (Behind the FT paywall.)
² In any case, anybody who thinks Vladimir Putin cares about climate change is silly.

Pelosi, Biden, and Taiwan – Part 2

I wrote here about House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.  Among other things I asked whether Secretary Pelosi planned her trip without talking to President Biden, or at least to his people, first? Well, apparently she did – or at least that is what one of the panelists in the Chicago Council on Global Affairs’ “World Review with Ivo Daalder” said last Friday.¹  More specifically, they said that Speaker Pelosi (or her people) told President Biden (or his people) that she would not go to Taiwan if he asked her not to.  But here is the kicker: Speaker Pelosi also told the President that if she did not go to Taiwan at his request, she would have to publicly say why she wasn’t going. 

The panelists all sort of passed over this comment, but I think it is pretty big.  It seems to me that Speaker Pelosi was basically threatening the President: If you tell me not to go, you’re going to get all the blame and you are going to look weak to the American people.²

Nancy Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan – and Joe Biden

So, was House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan a good idea?  I don’t know,¹ though once the visit was leaked and China objected so vociferously, she had to go.  Still, the visit raises all kinds of questions.  Here is one I had: I find Joe Biden’s comments last month criticizing the trip and saying the Defense Department was worried about the trip, more than a little bizarre.  Speaker Pelosi and President Biden are both Democrats.  I am sure Speaker Pelosi knows how to reach President Biden when she wants to talk to him.  I am sure he picks up the phone when she calls.  Did this mean Secretary Pelosi planned her trip without talking to President Biden, or at least to his people, first?  That would truly be bizarre. 

Democrats for Trump

Back when they had campaign buttons, you would see buttons that said “Republicans for [Democrat]” or “Democrats for [Republican].  In fact, I think we still have some “Democrats for Nixon” buttons in our basement.

If they still had campaign buttons, a lot of Democrats, at least Democratic leaders and Democratic campaign advisers, would be wearing “Democrats for Trump” buttons – or at least they would if they were honest.  Because a lot of Democrats, and a lot of Democratic money, are trying to help pro-Trump Republicans win Republican primaries.  That is what happened here in Illinois.  The Democratic Governors Association kept sending me mail, the old-fashioned kind, via the Post Office, telling me that Darren Bailey was “too conservative” and that he liked Donald Trump too much.  Both of which were true, but both of which were designed to get pro-Trump Republicans to vote for Darren Bailey in the primary, instead of one of the other candidates who might have actually had a chance to beat our Democratic governor, who is running for re-election, in November.

Optimism for November?

Daniel Henninger wrote in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal about “The Conservative Case for Optimism.”  I wish I could be as hopeful as Mr. Henninger with respect to the Republicans’ chances in November.  Unfortunately, the Republicans’ ability to shoot themselves in the foot gives me pause.  When Barack Obama was president, it took the Republicans until 2014 to take the Senate, even though they won the House in 2010, largely because they nominated some terrible candidates in 2010 and 2012.  And they did it even without Donald Trump.

With former President Trump around, the Republicans’ chances to throw away victory in November are even greater.  As always, former President Trump is focused on himself, and his grievances about the “stolen” election of 2020, instead of party or policy – or country. 

Willy’s Not Coming Back, Whether He’s Traded or Not

Yesterday I tweeted:

“The worst way for a company to handle a RIF [i.e., a reduction in force] is to announce it and then tell people that the list of who is being let go will be disclosed in two weeks. Welcome to the  @Cubs at the @MLB #TradeDeadline.”

Yesterday, Willson Contreras said, with respect to today’s off-day and tomorrow’s 5 pm trade deadline: "It's going to be a long day. It's been long, long, long, long week, long, long, month for me. But I'm ready for this to be over, to be honest."

Let’s Use the Defense Production Act – To Produce Stuff for Defense

The Defense Production Act was passed in September of 1950 to enable the President, by executive order, to order businesses to accept and prioritize contracts deemed necessary for our national defense.  Recently, President Trump used the DPA to, among other things, order General Motors to make ventilators for Covid.  (At the time, the experts said we needed more ventilators.  We wound up needing fewer than the experts thought would be necessary, but that happens sometimes.)

President Biden has used the DPA for numerous things, too, including fire hose and baby formula.

Solving Gun Violence – Without a Time Machine

I totally understand the calls for new gun control legislation.  What is happening is horrific.  The problem is that most of the proposals involve a time machine.  Let me explain.  Too many of the calls for gun control assume we can go back in time and get rid of the Second Amendment (which would involve going back to the early 1790s).  Or that we can, at least, go back to before the Heller decision in 2008, and get the Supreme Court to issue a different decision in that case (which might require going back before 2008 and getting at least a couple different justices on the Supreme Court). 

Many of them also assume we can go back to a time when we did not have upwards of 400 million guns in the United States. 

Overturning Roe v. Wade – And a Call for the Great Middle of America to Take the Issue Back

In September of 2018, I wrote a post about Roe v. Wade and the possibility that it might be overturned.  (It was the time of the confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh.)  At that time, I said this:

“What people don’t understand in the debate over a woman’s right to choose is that we are not evenly divided between those who support a woman’s right to choose and those who oppose abortion.  Actually, views on abortion are divided among four groups: (i) those who oppose a woman’s right to choose under virtually any circumstances; (ii) those who want abortion available virtually without restriction; (iii) those who would allow it in some situations; and (iv) those who allow it in many circumstances. 

Do Kirkland & Ellis and the Biden Administration Have the Solution to Crime?

With Roe v. Wade getting overturned today, this post is probably a day late and a dollar short.  But here it is anyway:

Paul Clement and Erin Murphy, who won the case in the Supreme Court against New York state’s relatively strict handgun law,  New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, have announced that they are leaving the law firm they were at, Kirkland & Ellis.  According to them, Kirkland & Ellis told them that the firm would no longer take firearms cases and that they needed to stop representing clients such as the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association or leave the firm.  Not surprisingly, Clement and Murphy are leaving K&E.¹  In any case, the lesson is clear: K&E doesn’t want to provide legal representation to unpopular clients – or at least certain unpopular clients.

Two Nations, One Country, Talking Past Each Other

I watched parts of a couple of Sunday morning news shows this morning (for the first time in I don’t know how long).  Among the stories were (i) the January 6 committee hearing last week in prime time and (ii) the protests outside Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s house and the guy arrested and charged with his attempted murder.

With respect to the January 6 committee, I don’t know if I learned much new.  For me, January 6, and the events leading up to it, told me all I needed to know about Donald Trump.  He lost the election, he tried to overturn the results on specious grounds, and he should not be considered any kind of candidate for any kind of office ever again.  The committee hearings may tell me a little more about January 6, but it will only make him look worse, and the prior sentence is still true. 

If You Want People to Follow Covid Rules, They Need to Make Sense

I don’t know what is going to happen with Covid.  I don’t think anybody, at least anybody who is being honest, does.  Among the problems (out of many) of the last two years has been the false certainty of so many people.  There has not been enough humility and honest uncertainty.

In that regard, let me just complain about one rule that, while it made sense when it was adopted, doesn’t make sense any more but stays in place because nobody seems to think about it.