The View from Right Field

Government Subsidies – Programs That Never End

There is a saying that the only things certain in life are death and taxes.  And the only thing permanent is a government program.  The inability of the federal government, and state and local governments, to terminate programs that don’t work is proof of the latter.  Instead of getting rid of the old programs that don’t work, governments just set up a new program – again and again.  Which results in four or five (or more) programs all trying to solve the same problem, and none of them doing it well (if at all).

Overseas, the forever programs are often subsidies: for food, fuel, etc.  In theory, the subsidies are set up for good purposes: to help the poor.  (Of course, they are also set up to help politicians – get votes.)  The problem is that, over time, the subsidies become more and more expensive, as costs go up and prices don’t.  And corruption seeps in: subsidized fuel, for example, is sold to neighboring countries where prices are subsidized.

“Russia Might Decide Aggression Is Worth Risking”

Gideon Rachman wrote in Tuesday’s Financial Times about the future of the EU as a superpower, “a geopolitical force.”¹  He concluded: “The EU used to be called a peace project.  In the modern world, it is more of a power project – and rightly so.”  However, in arguing for the EU as a superpower, I thought Mr. Rachman understated the risk of Russia, as I wrote in this letter to the editor that was published in today’s Financial Times²:

“In his argument for the EU as a superpower (‘Europe rightly aspires to be a power project,’ October 8), Gideon Rachman admits that it ‘lacks the military muscle to back up its geopolitical ambitions’.  However, he says that, ‘even if the US pulled all its troops out of Europe, which is unlikely, it would still be a huge gamble for Russia (or anyone else) to risk military aggression against a collective with the size and wealth of the EU’.

@Cubs 2020 – Hiring A Manager to Follow a “Hall of Fame” Manager

Last week, at the Joe Maddon goodbye fest, Theo Epstein said, as he was firing Joe,¹ that Joe was a Hall of Fame manager.   But apparently a Hall of Fame manager wasn’t what Theo thought the Cubs needed in 2020, so it was “Goodbye Joe.  Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”  Which brings us to the question of “Who’s next?”

According to press reports, David Ross is being interviewed, as are one or more “internal” candidates; i.e., guys who were with the Cubs in 2019.  It seems to me, given the problems/concerns that Theo Epstein identified in his post-season press conference,² that Theo is saying the Cubs need a kick in the rear.  Can an internal candidate do that?  Can David Ross (who sounds more like a “lets-get-the-2016-gang-back-together-again” guy) do that?  Or do we need somebody from the outside to shake things up?

Why Should Anybody Trust Us? – Again

Donald Trump has announced, again, that the U.S. troops will leaving northeastern Syria (or at least parts of it) – and, in effect, we will basically give Turkey a free hand to do whatever they want to the Kurdish forces there.  And this time he may actually mean it.  He previously announced such a withdrawal in December of last year.  Then-Secretary of Defense James Mattis resigned because of the decision, as did Brett McGurk, who was Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS.  Last December/January, President Trump was apparently talked out of a complete withdrawal, and approximately 1,000 U.S. troops stayed.  But he now is saying, once again, that he is going to do it, so maybe we will.  Several comments (out of the many that could be made).

The Kurds helped have been a key ally in the fight against ISIS in Syria.  They lost thousands killed.  I realize it was to their benefit to do so, but it was to our benefit, too.  We were fighting together.  We were allies.  And now we have left them in the lurch.  That’s just wrong.  Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, said it well: “We must always have the backs of our allies, if we expect them to have our back.”

Sanders’s and Warren’s Wealth Taxes Aren’t Going to Just Cost the Super-Rich

I had been planning on writing about Elizabeth Warren’s tax-a-mega-millionaire program (actually, an annual 2% tax on net worths above $50 million and an additional 1% on amounts above $1 billion), but Bernie Sanders has come along with a bigger (and better-?) tax of his own.  Senator Sanders’s plan needs a chart (as with Senator Warren’s tax, Senator Sanders’s tax is assessed annually):

1% tax on wealth above $32 million;
2% tax on wealth between $50 to $250 million;
3% tax from $250 to $500 million;
4% tax from $500 million to $1 billion;
5% tax from $1 to $2.5 billion;
6% tax from $2.5 to $5 billion;
7% tax from $5 to $10 billion; and
8% tax above $10 billion.

Bidens in Ukraine – and Grifting in Illinois

In an article Peggy Noonan wrote last weekend about the President Trump/Ukraine story, she made a comment that seemed relevant to Illinois:

“In the end, in purely practical political terms, the one person who will be hurt by this story will be Joe Biden.  Every telling of this story necessitates pointing out that Mr. Biden’s son Hunter had cozy financial relationships with other countries, including Ukraine.  It’s real swamp stuff.  It looks bad, say the former vice president’s friends.  No, it is bad.

We Said Goodbye to Joe Maddon on Sunday. Now It’s Goodbye to Cleveland, 2016.

At the beginning of the 2019 season, the Cubs still had fourteen players on their roster from the 2016 World Series team.  Carl Edwards, Jr. and Mike Montgomery, the guys who pitched the bottom of the tenth inning of Game 7, left during the year, but even in September we could field a whole team, including DH, from the guys left from the World Series roster,¹ plus have two starters and a reliever.²  But with Ben Zobrist and Pedro Strop both being free agents and probably not coming back, and Albert Almora, Jr. and Addison Russell not playing all that regularly in 2019, the number of people from the World Series champs could be down a lot in 2020.³  And that doesn’t even include the possibility of one or more guys being traded (see below).

The problem the Cubs have, in addition to not being able to draft and develop their own pitchers, is that their payroll is high.  While MLB’s salary cap is not a hard one, the penalties increase every year if you keep going over it.  When Tom Ricketts said last winter there wasn’t any money for a closer, what he really meant was that the Cubs didn’t want to go over the salary cap, or at least not go over it too far.  (It’s too bad he could not have been a little more honest about it.)

“There Is No Planet B”. But What If You’re Poor on Planet A?

When I was having dinner at a local seafood restaurant recently, there was a little sign on the napkin holder that said “There is no Planet B.”  I don’t know if the restaurant was just trying to get me to use fewer paper napkins or if they were making a general comment on climate change, but I assume that it was mostly the latter and that the point of “There is no Planet B” is to get us to do more, and to push our government to do more, on climate change.

Which raises one of the conundrums with climate change.  It is easy for people who can afford to eat at an upscale restaurant in suburban Chicago to say the world needs to do more, and spend more, to fight climate change.  The problem is, however, if we are really going to do enough to stop climate change, it can’t be done just by rich people in rich countries.  Middle income and poorer countries have to do their part, too.  And that’s where it gets tricky.

Donald Trump and Impeachment. When – and How – Is It Going to End?

A few thoughts:

1. It shouldn’t be too big of a problem for the pro-impeachment forces to get the House of Representatives to impeach Donald Trump.  It only takes a majority, and there are 235 Democrats in the House compared to 197 Republicans.  (There are two vacancies and one independent.)  The Democrats can almost certainly pass an impeachment resolution if the House leadership wants to.

2. The Senate is a different story.  Because it takes a 2/3 vote to convict in the Senate, the pro-impeachment forces need to get 20 Republicans senators to vote to convict President Trump (assuming all 47 Democrats vote to convict).  In this regard, I think it is safe to say that President Trump has not built up much personal loyalty among Republican senators.  The key for them, instead, will be (i) the facts and (ii) how their pro-Trump constituents feel about impeachment.  If President Trump loses any significant portion of his base and/or those who  voted for him in 2016 because the alternative was worse, he could be in trouble.

Farewell to Joe Maddon. He’ll Do Fine. Will the @Cubs?

When Joe Maddon was not “re-hired” by the Cubs, the name that popped into my head was Joe McCarthy.  No, not the senator from Wisconsin,¹ but the Hall of Fame manager.  Because Joe McCarthy’s career with the Cubs mirrors that of Joe Maddon’s pretty well.  

Joe McCarthy managed the Cubs for five years, from 1926 to 1930.  The Cubs had winning records every one of those years.  While the Cubs did not get to the postseason four times under Joe McCarthy, like they did with Joe Maddon, back then you didn’t have five out of fifteen teams making the postseason every year.  If you finished first, you played in the World Series.  If you didn’t, you went home.

Thoughts on Ukraine, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden

The news articles are all about Donald Trump’s telephone call with the president of Ukraine and his request (suggestion, threat, whatever) that Ukraine investigate Joe Biden and/or his son Hunter Biden’s activities in or relating to Ukraine.  A few comments:

1.  Democrats claim they are shocked that President Trump would allegedly do this. I am not, but after the 2015-16 presidential campaign, nothing President Trump does either surprises or shocks me.

2. Some Democrats are calling for President Trump to be impeached. Really? It is less than fourteen months until the 2020 election.  Don’t impeach him.  Beat him.  Trying to impeach him is just going to get those people who supported President Trump in 2016 more motivated to vote for him again.  Republicans impeached Bill Clinton in 1998, and he got more popular.  If Democrats impeach President Trump on something like this, which is, as I mentioned in point #1, neither surprising nor shocking, they will just increase the chances he gets re-elected next year.

How Do You Know an Attack Is an Attack – And How to Respond to It?

Last weekend, oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked by missiles and drones in what was, in effect, an act of war.  Houthi forces in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attack, but they were not widely believed.  More likely suspects include Iran (or groups within Iran, if not the Iranian government itself) or Iranian-backed groups in Iraq.  The point of this post, however, is not that Saudi Arabia was attacked last weekend, but that a week later, people can’t agree as to who did it.  And even if a likely attacker is identified, they’ll just say they didn’t do it, and at least some people will believe them.  Or at least they will say we don’t know for sure, and we need to wait for further investigations before we do anything. 

I realize some people will say that Saudi Arabia is in the Middle East: How can we tell who is attacking whom in that part of the world?  Plus, they are all dictators or religious fanatics (or both), so who cares.

How’s a Person Who Cares About Foreign Policy Supposed to Vote Next November?

As I have written before, foreign policy may be the most important issue for me in November 2020 and it’s hard to know what to do.  Donald Trump is unacceptable.  The list of reasons why would go on for a long time, so I’ll just list one of the most recent: he apparently needed John Bolton to stop him from inviting Taliban leaders to Camp David just before the anniversary of 9/11.  But I had decided I wouldn’t vote for President Trump long before that, so while it is appalling, it doesn’t affect my decision.

The question is whether any of the Democrats are just barely acceptable.  Joe Biden is supposedly the most moderate, but former Defense Secretary¹ Robert Gates, who I respect, said of former Vice President Biden, in 2014: “I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”²  In other words, just because you are “moderate” doesn’t mean you can’t still be wrong.³

John Bolton Is Leaving. It is Too Bad.

I was very disappointed to see that National Security Advisor John Bolton either was fired or resigned.  Donald Trump’s tweets indicated it was the former (here and here).  Mr. Bolton’s tweet, at @AmbJohnBolton, indicated it was the latter.  I will leave it to you to decide who is more trustworthy.  I know who I believe.

I have not always agreed with John Bolton’s views on various foreign policy questions, but at least he knew about foreign policy and had an approach to foreign policy that he had thought through.  It is unclear to me if President Trump has either.

2019 @Cubs: What’s the Problem? Injuries or a Lack of Clutch Singles?

With Javy out, KB day-to-day (and not even close to his best), and now Addy, it doesn’t look good for the Cubs.  They entered the weekend 2½ games behind the Cardinals and ended it 4½ games back.  When your announcers start talking about the second Wild Card spot, you know it’s not looking good, especially when the teams behind you keep getting closer.

I understand the Cubs have had a lot of injuries this year, with Willy gone in August, Kyle Hendricks, Hamels, and Yu down at times, not to mention Kimbrell and others.  But has it really been the injuries?  Or has it been, once again, the Cubs not getting clutch hitting?  And one thing especially.  Not clutch hitting as a whole, but clutch singles.  How many people, other than Rizzo, have been getting clutch, two-out, two-strike singles this year?  Because, a lot of times, you don’t need a home run; you just need a single.  And a single should be a lot easier to get than a home run. 

Nasty Politics and Not Enough Economic Growth

Robert Samuelson, long-time economics writer at The Washington Post, asked earlier this week whether the U.S. economy had lost its economic dynamism.¹  Mr. Samuelson noted that “Americans have been conditioned to think that present economic disruptions are at, or near, historical highs.”²  However, he continued:

“But that's not what [a] study [by Joel Elvery of the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank] found. Instead, it concluded: ‘After 100 years of dramatic change, the mix of occupations has been more stable since 1970.’ …

A more likely possibility [for economic disruption and insecurity] is that, in many different ways, the U.S. economy is becoming less dynamic. …

Where Are the Cubs Going and For How Long?

Joe Maddon is generally a pretty upbeat guy.  And he doesn’t criticize his players in public.  In Tom Verducci’s book about the 2016 season, The Cubs Way, Verducci talked about Maddon saying that it wasn’t good criticize a player right after a game in which he made a mistake.  The player knew he made a mistake.  Criticizing at that point is just piling on.¹  Verducci also quoted Maddon as saying:

“‘I read once a really good line, “Praise publicly, criticize privately.” He said.  ‘I love that.  That’s exactly how you should do it. I think.  So I attempt to live by that.’” (p. 158) 

It is, therefore, interesting to see some of the things Maddon has been saying lately, in the last regular season month of his contract with the Cubs.

@BernieSanders’s “Green New Deal”. Is He Trying to Re-elect @realDonaldTrump?

Senator Bernie Sanders was an early supporter of the Green New Deal, and last week he issued his version of what that would mean.  Let’s just say his plan is big.  It would require lots of government and lots of money, though as to the latter, his plan says it’s all paid for with taxes on big energy, reduced military spending (because we can “scal[e] back military spending on maintaining global oil dependence”), taxes paid by all the people with new, good-paying jobs, and, of course, the rich “pay[ing] their fair share.”

Most of the news articles did not go into the details of Senator Sanders’ plan, though “Vox” did include some of them.  Perhaps the most comprehensive list was in The Wall Street Journal’s editorial this morning.  (Not surprisingly, the WSJ’s editorial page is not supportive.)  On the other hand, if you really want to see what’s in the plan, just go to berniesanders.com.  It’s there.

The Purpose of a Corporation. I’ll Go with Milton Friedman.

Last Monday, the Business Roundtable, a group of chief executive officers of big U.S. corporations, announced that it had changed its statement on the purpose of a corporation and had issued a new “Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation.”¹  This was a big deal:

“The leaders of some of America’s biggest companies are chipping away at the long-held notion that corporate decision-making should revolve around what is best for shareholders. …

No longer should decisions be based solely on whether they will yield higher profits for shareholders, the group said.  Rather, corporate leaders should take into account ‘all stakeholders’ – that is, employees, customers and society writ large. …

I Am So Tired of @realDonaldTrump

In the middle of his snit yesterday over trade and tariffs with China, President Trump tweeted, in part:

“Our great American companies are hereby ordered to immediately start looking for an alternative to China, including bringing your companies HOME and making your products in the USA.” (Here and here)

I just don’t know what to say.  Maybe Xi Jinping and Kim Jung Un, people President Trump calls his friends, can order their companies to do this.  But, President Trump, you can’t do this.  We are a free country, and you can’t order people or companies around like some Communist dictator.  And saying things like this is stupid.