The View from Right Field

Nothing Is Better Than Too Much; Nothing Is Better Than Too Little

That is the essence of the dispute in Congress on a coronavirus relief bill.  Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans say that the plan proposed by the Democrats is too big and they won’t approve it.  Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats say that the plan proposed by the Senate Republicans is too small and they won’t approve it.  In other words, both of them are saying that doing nothing is better than passing the bill the other side wants.  And so, nothing is done.

Which sounds familiar to those of us in Illinois who remember the Governor Bruce Rauner/Speaker Michael Madigan disputes in 2015-17.¹
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¹ See here and here.

The Washington 180 – Once Again

With Joe Biden being elected President and the Republicans very possibly keeping a majority in the Senate,¹ we may have another “Washington 180” coming up next year. 

After the Republicans took the House in 2010, Barack Obama couldn’t get Congress to pass his agenda.  When Congress wouldn’t pass the laws he wanted, President Obama turned to what he called his “pen and phone.”²  Sometimes, departments and agencies followed the Administrative Procedure Act and adopted formal regulations.  Other times, they just issued new interpretations of laws or prior regulations.  Or they sent so-called “Dear Colleagues” letters to state and local governments setting out new rules, with an implied threat to cut off federal funding if they didn’t follow the new rules or standards.

Farewell to Theo

I need to say thanks to Theo Epstein as he leaves, but first I owe him a couple of apologies.  First, this post is late because I have been spending too much time reading about Donald Trump’s stupid effort to claim the presidential election was stolen from him.¹ 

Second, my initial thought was that Theo was bailing just when a lot of hard choices needed to be made.  A lot of guys are coming up on free agency, who knows how next season will be played and how much money will be available, the farm system isn’t that great, etc.  We almost need a rebuild, a rebuild while still contending, which is really hard, and he says, “I’m out of here.”  But then I realized I was wrong.  The Cubs probably do need a mini-rebuild, or at least a lot of changes, but if Theo isn’t going to stay for the whole thing, it wouldn’t be right for him to start it and then leave.  It’s more appropriate for him to leave now so Jed Hoyer can do it the way he thinks is right.

What Donald Trump Is Doing Doesn’t Have to Damage Our Democracy

Democrats and much of the mainstream media¹ are saying Donald Trump is damaging American democracy by his continuing refusal to accept defeat in the presidential election and to start the transition process for President-elect Biden.  I agree that what President Trump is doing is appalling and that it makes the United States look stupid around the world, but it’s not the first time President Trump has done that, and given that January 20 is still two months away, it may not be the last (unfortunately).  It is, after all, what President Trump does.  We all know that by now.  Why should we be surprised he continues to do it?

But, as for whether President Trump is causing lasting damage to American democracy, that’s up to us.  What he is doing doesn’t have to cause lasting damage to democracy – unless we let it.  We can agree that what President Trump is doing is wrong and that we will never do it ourselves.  We can make what President Trump is doing a one-time thing by agreeing that we will concede when our opponent gets more votes and that we won’t go around saying our opponent wasn’t really elected once the votes are counted. 

Covid-19 Leadership: Is Anybody Leading?

When it comes to Covid-19 leadership, Donald Trump has been a disaster.  Too often he said the virus wasn’t that bad.  Other times he suggested almost quack solutions.  And masks were seemingly verboten around the White House.¹  Clear, confident, national leadership could have made things less bad.  He didn’t provide it.

But too many of our governors and mayors haven’t been effective leaders, either.  I understand it is hard to lead when the national message isn’t clear.  But that doesn’t mean state and local leaders couldn’t have done a better job. 

@realDonaldTrump’s Legacy - Afghanistan and Iraq

For those who thought Donald Trump’s legacy, at least since November 3, would be most tarnished by his refusal to concede to President-Elect Joe Biden, I give you this:

“BREAKING: US Acting Defense Secretary Christopher Miller announces that the number of US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq will be reduced to 2,500 by January 15th, 2021.”

Acting Secretary Miller apparently refused to take questions after announcing the decision.  I have talked about this before (here and here, among others); there is no need to talk about it again.  It is a terrible decision, as so many of President Trump’s decisions have been.  The United States, Afghanistan, and the world will regret it.

Illinois Might Have an Emergency, But Don’t Expect the Legislature To Do Anything

The President of the Illinois State Senate, Don Harmon, a Democrat from Oak Park, was really excited about the election results.  Even with the defeat of the Fair Tax, he said, in a comment in our local newspaper, the Wednesday Journal, “We did it.”  Now, however, with Illinois facing a financial crisis because of the defeat of the Fair Tax and facing another coronavirus wave, Senator Harmon is saying, “We can’t do it”; i.e., the legislature can’t meet for its fall session.  It wouldn’t be safe, he says, with the virus surging in Springfield and around the state.

Doctors and nurses are working.  Police officers and firefighters are there for us.  And grocery stores and drug stores are open, and their workers are helping us with our food and medicine.  But the state legislature meeting to pass laws to deal with these crises?  It’s too dangerous.¹

Bridging the Divide

In today’s Financial Times, former Senator Heidi Heitkamp (D, ND) says that “an effective [virus] containment strategy and [economic] recovery plan requires votes from both sides of the political divide.”¹  She is absolutely right on that,  However, she is wrong in how to get such a plan.  She says “[w]hat we need is a series of open meetings” with “[a]ll stakeholders invited” and everything “should be transparent.”

While that sounds good, it won’t work.  As we have seen so often in Washington, public hearings mean public posturing.  Senators, representatives, etc., focus on sound bites and what they can put on Twitter and Facebook, pandering to their base, instead of trying to actually reach an agreement.

Hey, Springfield: We Don’t Trust You

There are lots of stories in this election, some of which have not yet been fully told.  But there is one thing we know in Illinois: Illinois voters don’t trust Springfield.  Governor Pritzker spent millions supporting an amendment to the Illinois constitution allowing a progressive income tax.  The supporters said, over and over, it would only affect the rich, just the top 3%.  But they failed.  

What is interesting is why they failed.  The opponents of the amendment did not argue the merits of a flat tax versus a graduated tax.  Rather, they just asked Illinoisans whether they could trust the politicians in Springfield to limit the “Fair Tax” to just the top 3%, as they promised. 

The Economics of Big-Time Professional Sports In a Pandemic

With Major League Baseball and the NBA completing their seasons and football moving along with its season, Ben Cohen and Louise Radnofsky came up with some lessons after sports’ first Covid-19 season in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal.  Among them is this:

“The past few months have taught sports that fans are important but not essential – at least for now.  The games can be played without them.  Being flexible and doing the unimaginable, whether it is a closed-door competition or shortening some baseball games to seven innings, paid off for the leagues.

Two Last Comments on Trump/Biden

1. In an interview in Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, Robert Chitester, the man who brought us Milton Friedman’s 1980 PBS series “Free to Choose,” said this about the presidential race this year:

“‘Voting for Trump for me is ‘hold your nose and vote,’ Mr. Chitester says – but that’s better than voting for a party whose platform was written with Mr. Sanders’s help.  ‘I try to explain to people that they must somehow overcome their dislike for the person and understand and evaluate what the two parties represent in terms of policy.’”

But he says this about the Winnie the Pooh necktie he wears:

Illinois Government: “Fair Tax” or Not, What Comes Next?

On Tuesday (or so), we will know the results on the Illinois “Fair Tax” proposal.  More interesting, however, will be what happens next year in Springfield.  Regardless of whether the Fair Tax passes or not, Illinois taxes will be going up.  The state has had billions of dollars of unpaid bills for a decade (don’t try this at home) and an unpaid pension deficit of either $137 billion or $240 billion (depending on whom you believe).

Governor J.B. Pritzker sent his Lieutenant Governor out last month to say (threaten-?) that if the Fair Tax was not passed, the flat rate state income state would go up from 4.95% to 5.95%, and the Governor said it would be the Republicans’ fault.  So, taxes are going up.  The real question is what happens after the increase.  Will the legislature and the governor use the extra money to finally pay the unpaid bills and pay down the unfunded pension liability?  Or will they all of a sudden say that Illinois has lots of unmet needs (besides paying its bills and funding its pension promises) and that the money needs to be used for new programs and expanded benefits?

Supreme Court or Supreme Election Board?

Three weeks ago, I asked “Will Courts Be Changing Voting Rules Right Up to Election Day?”  Since then, some of the more extreme examples I mentioned in that post have been walked back.  On Monday night, the Supreme Court upheld, by a 5 to 3 vote, a decision by the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals that overturned a federal district court decision in Wisconsin to extend the period for getting absentee ballots back to the election board until six days after Election Day.  (Wisconsin law provided that absentee ballots had to be received by Election Day.)   

What I wanted to talk about here are a couple of things Justice Elena Kagan said in her dissent in that decision.  Justice Kagan said: “As the COVID pandemic rages, the Court has failed to adequately protect the Nation's voters." and "[T]he Court's decision will disenfranchise large numbers of responsible voters in the midst of hazardous pandemic condition.”

Honesty In Taxes: We All Have to Pay

There is a trend in tax increase proposals around the world.  Voters in Illinois this November will vote on a “Fair Tax,” i.e., a constitutional amendment to allow the Illinois legislature to pass a progressive income tax.  The key selling point in the campaign for the amendment, other than the name that the PR people gave to it is that only 3% of the people in Illinois will pay a higher tax.  Everybody else will pay less.

In New Zealand, which had an election last weekend, the Green Party proposed a wealth tax, but said it would only apply to the top 6% of people.  The center-left Labour Party rejected the wealth tax idea, but they did propose increasing the tax on income above NZ$180,000, which includes about 2% of taxpayers, from 33% to 39%.

What the Fair Tax Needs Is New Politicians in Springfield

We are told that the solution to the problems in Springfield is the “Fair Tax.”  I would suggest that what we need more than a new tax is new politicians.  Illinois’s main problem isn’t that the state doesn’t have enough money.  It’s that the people in Springfield don’t know how to use the money they already have – and haven’t known how to use it for years.  Which is why we are in the mess we are in.

Giving more money to the politicians we have now will not result in better programs and more things done well.  It will, rather, result in more of what we already have: Poorly-run government that spends too much and accomplishes too little.

Two Pandemic What-Ifs: Getting Through This One; Getting Ready for the Next One

First, the economy.  Most of the projections of where the economy is going and how long it will take to get back to where we were before the pandemic started are based on things going reasonably well in the future.  But what happens if there is a really bad wave this winter?  Can we afford to shut down¹ again?  Can we afford to not to?

People need to be safe, but how long can people get enough money to buy food and pay rent and utilities if they don’t have a job?  Some businesses won’t be able to continue – or reopen if they have to shut down again.

President Trump Can Tweet But Can He Actually Do Things?

There is so much going on that it is sometimes hard to comment on things on a timely basis.  For example, I only yesterday read that President Trump tweeted, the day before the Vice Presidential debate:

“We should have the small remaining number of our BRAVE Men and Women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas!”

Wow.  That would be a big deal – if it happens.  Which is the thing, of course.  VOA (i.e., Voice of America) reported the next day that “[s]pokespersons for Defense Secretary Mark Esper, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Mark Milley and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees military operations in the Middle East, declined to comment and referred VOA to the White House.”  Also, Secretary Esper did not answer questions about a speeded-up withdrawal from Afghanistan during a press conference the day after the President’s tweet.  In fact, per VOA, “[o]ne military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told VOA the president’s tweet was the “first word” anyone had seen about an accelerated withdrawal timeline in Afghanistan ….” 

Do Uighur Lives Matter? – Part Two: Do We Care?

In an earlier post I talked about why I thought saying “Uighur Lives Matter” could be problematic.  But beyond that, I don’t think “Uighurs Lives Matter” would carry the day in the United States, even if saying it wasn’t problematic.  Let me mention a couple of reasons.  First, a number of Americans just don’t care about what is going on elsewhere in the world.  It is part of their America First approach.  They feel we need to make economic deals with China.  We have to take care of ourselves; we can’t worry about the Uighurs.  This is certainly what former National Security Adviser John Bolton says that President Trump told President Xi Jinping. 

Second, lots of individual Americans and American companies are intimidated by China.  They see over a billion Chinese and decide sales and profits are more important than principles and doing what is right.

Hunter Biden and Ukraine: Old News – And Still Wrong

There is a big brouhaha about Twitter and Facebook not allowing the re-tweeting or posting (or whatever the proper verb is) of reports in the New York Post about what Hunter Biden allegedly did for the Ukrainian energy company he got a job with when his father was Vice President under Barack Obama.  Apparently, Twitter and Facebook did this because there wasn’t proper sourcing for the reports in the Post, it was based on hacked materials, etc.  (See here and here.)  If Twitter and Facebook really start enforcing a policy requiring stories to be properly sourced, there’s going to be a lot less traffic on those sites.

But back to the Bidens and Ukraine.  If Twitter and Facebook wanted to cut down on posts, etc., about Hunter Biden and Ukraine and his father, a better explanation than a lack of proper sourcing would have been “It’s old news.”  I wrote about this in May of 2014 when reports first came out about Hunter Biden taking the job.  Hunter Biden getting paid by a Ukrainian energy company when his father was Vice President didn’t become wrong because he made an introduction to his father or something else.  It was wrong from the beginning, and it was whether he made the introduction or not.

So, Hunter Biden, Ukraine, Vice President Biden.  Old news.  And still not enough of a reason to vote for Donald Trump.

Probably Not the Best Lincoln Quote for Right Now

The Abraham Lincoln Presidential Library and Museum¹ in Springfield had a quote from Abraham Lincoln at the top of an E-News email I received from them today, along with references to two websites, “CoronaVirus.Illinois.gov” and “PresidentLincoln.Illinois.gov”.  It’s this quote, which I am sure is intended to refer to the pandemic:

“Let us confidently hope that all will yet be well.”

It is a great quote, but given that the date and context of the quote, i.e., it was from Lincoln’s Farewell Address to Springfield on February 11, 1861, I am not sure it is the best quote for right now.
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¹ A great place to visit, though you might want to wait until the virus settles down a little