2008 Election

With the terrible things occurring at Walter Reed Army Hospital and the Scooter Libby verdict yesterday, both following on the notable lack of success so far in Iraq, it would appear the 2008 Presidential race is half over. Actually, what I mean is that the Republican half of the 2008 Presidential race is over. The Republican half is over because the Republican candidate, whoever he or she may be, has no chance of winning. It is just a matter of which Democrat will win – and what the Republicans can do to minimize their losses in the House and Senate. And the Senate will be tough because 21 Republicans are up for reelection in 2008, as opposed to just twelve Democrats.

The problem with the Libby verdict and the mess at Walter Reed is that they cut at the heart of whatever strength Bush has left. The Libby verdict will be portrayed as proof that Bush misled us into the Iraq war with lies about weapons of mass destruction. That is not true, either about the trial (which was not about WMD in Iraq) or Bush lying about Saddam Hussein having MWD (in the sense of saying Saddam had MWD when Bush knew he did not), but it will be portrayed as such, and the lack of success in Iraq will make the claim seem plausible.

But as bad as the Libby verdict is, the situation at Walter Reed is worse. The last strength Bush had was that he really cared about the troops. Most Democrats do, too, but too many Democrats see support for the troops as a public relations ploy to be manipulated to get us out of Iraq (see here and here). But now, even that is gone. The Bush Administration will be seen, maybe appropriately, as failing the wounded troops, those who need our help and support the most.

It is hard to believe how bad George Bush has done. It is even harder to believe that the voters will let another Republican have a chance in 2008.

And that is too bad because it is going to give the Democrats a real chance, starting in 2009, to do what they want to do – which will not be good for the country. It is also too bad because there will be some good Republicans who are going to lose in 2008 for reasons totally outside of their control.

Finally, perhaps most importantly, it is too bad for the people of Iraq. It has taken Bush far too long to come up with the proper strategy in Iraq. Now that he has finally found it (in General Petraeus and the surge; see here), all of his other mistakes are going to reduce the chance this new strategy will have the time and support it needs in and from the United States to work. This may ultimately be Bush’s biggest failure; i.e., failing the people of Iraq and our troops who fought there by not getting it right until it was too late.