If I am right about the Republicans’ chances to win the presidency in 2008 (see here), then the most important consideration in picking a candidate for next year will not be who might have the best chance to win the presidency (because no Republican can win it), but who can minimize the losses Republicans will suffer for other offices and who can best start the rebuilding of the Republican Party. The Republican Party has been severely damaged by the incompetence (administrative and operational) and incoherence (political and philosophical) of the last four years of the Bush Administration. While Iraq was, and still is, the right thing to do, the Bush Administration has (at least until recently) done a terrible job there. The invasion went well, but we were not prepared for and did not adequately plan for what would come next. When things did not go as we expected (which in war should not be a surprise), the Bush Administration failed to adjust our strategy and tactics quickly enough to meet the new situation. We wasted so much time not facing up to the fact that things were not going as we had expected, that by the time we found a general and a plan that looks like it might really work, we might not have enough time for it to work. Domestically things have been bad, too. We did get tax cuts and an economy that is growing like topsy, but government spending has grown like topsy, too. Except for the tax cuts and the judicial appointments, Bush’s big government conservatism has not seemed all that different from the Democrats. Also, there has been a failure to communicate. The Bush Administration, including the President, has failed to explain and defend its programs. People may not agree, but they will respect an honest explanation. There has been some of that, but not nearly enough. We need to explain and communicate – and inspire. We have not been getting that from the Bush Administration. The Republicans in Congress, taken as a whole, have not been any better. Remember, the bridge to nowhere was proposed by a Republican. While the Democrats have not reformed earmarks since they took over in January, it was the Republicans who turned earmarking into almost an art form. Republicans were elected in 1994 to change Washington, but, as many others have said, Republicans let Washington change them. The problems and failings at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have left Republicans dispirited and in disarray. We must not just paper over the problems and try to muddle through the next election. We need to step back and figure how where we want to go and how to get there. The first thing we need to do is to re-establish a reason for voters to be Republican. We need to remind voters, and in some cases, ourselves, what it means to be a Republican, what the difference is between a Republican and a Democrat, and why it matters. 2008 needs to be not just about electing a President; it needs to be about rebuilding the Republican Party and re-establishing the Republican "brand." We have lost a lot of our credibility in the last eight years. We need to start getting it back, and the 2008 race for President is the place to start. Even if our candidate for President cannot win, he or she has an important, perhaps the most important, role to play in this rebuilding process. We need to get back to the basics of what we believe in: lower taxes; less spending; federalism; a strong defense; avoiding unnecessary governmental controls and regulations; and freedom, both political and economic – because it works and it lets people decide for themselves. In picking a candidate for President we need a candidate who can lead this rebuilding. The problem is that when it comes to identifying a candidate to do this, all of the current front runners seem to be lacking. Rudy Giuliani did a fine job as mayor of New York, both in fighting crime and leading the city in the 1990s and in leading the city, and serving as a symbol of New York for all of America, in the aftermath of September 11. In another year Rudy Giuliani could be great candidate. But I do not think he is right in 2008 for a couple of reasons. First, we need somebody who believes in Republican positions, and Rudy has a conflict on a couple of core issues. I would not want him to change, because he would then not be himself, but I am afraid he may not be the right person to start rebuilding the credibility of the Republican Party in 2008. Also, perhaps more importantly, I worry about Rudy’s experience. New York is a big city, but the problems of running a city, such as crime and schools, are not the main ones facing a president. I wonder whether Rudy has had enough exposure to the kinds of issues, other than the threat from Islamic totalitarianism, that a president must know about. John McCain has a personal story that should be honored by all. He fights for what he believes in and does not back down just because it might be temporarily unpopular. McCain was the only one of the Republicans running for President to support the now-failed immigration bill in Congress. Separate and apart from whether the bill was good or not (I don’t think it was), McCain stood his ground because of what he thought was right. That is important and too uncommon. Similarly, on Iraq, McCain is still there backing our role there. His stand is losing him support from all of those "friends" he had in the media, but he does not care. That is a great quality, and he adds a lot to the Republican Party. The problem is that I am afraid his positions on certain issues, especially campaign finance reform, are problems. (See here.) I supported John McCain in 2000 in spite of his position on campaign finance reform. After seeing what McCain-Feingold has done, I cannot do that again. Freedom of speech is too important of an issue. I do not think John McCain can be the man. Mitt Romney. It obviously takes something to get elected as a Republican in Massachusetts, but that is part of the problem. The views that get you elected in Massachusetts are not those that help get you nominated for President by Republicans. To the extent Mitt’s positions sound good now, there is a concern that in some cases this is a result of a shift in his positions. I understand people can have a change of heart, but I worry there has been too many in Mitt’s case. There is also a concern about the question of experience in Mitt’s case. Four years as governor is not much experience. Of course, a person can be ready to be president, can be prepared for the job, even with limited experience. Lincoln was prepared even though his experience in national office was limited. But Lincoln had wrestled for years with the important issues of his day. He effectively prepared himself to be president through his speeches and his debates with Stephen Douglas. I do not know about Mitt. There are other candidates, too, those who might be called the second tier candidates, I do not mean to insult any of them, but I just do not see any of them doing the job that I think needs to be done. (For those who wonder about Mike Huckabee, see here.) Which leaves Fred Thompson. It is not surprising that Fred looks good to a lot of people. They see the problems with the other candidates and think they might like Fred. I think some people see Thompson as a new Ronald Reagan, in part, perhaps, because he has been an actor in addition to being a politician and he seems to be able to communicate well. But that is unfair to President Reagan. He was a lot more than just an actor who could talk well. In fact, what many Republicans are probably looking for is Ronald Reagan. Well, he is not running, but let me see if I can, by remembering him, identify what Republicans should be looking for in their candidate. First, Reagan used to say that he was not a great communicator; he was communicating great ideas. He was wrong about the former, but he was right about the latter. He was communicating great ideas. Our candidate in 2008 needs to have, really have, great ideas. He needs to mean them and believe them. It is not just about the right positions; it is about really believing in those positions. Second, he or she needs to be able to communicate. It may be unfair to those who are not great speakers, but life is not always fair. We need somebody who can communicate our beliefs. Teddy Roosevelt said the presidency is a "bully pulpit." We need somebody with the skills to use that pulpit to communicate to and with the American people. We may not be able to convince everybody we are right, but we need somebody who can explain what we believe. Even if the people don’t agree, they might understand. Third, a key part of Reagan’s message was his optimism and hope and the way he spoke to the best in the American people. We need to appeal to the good in people, not the bad. Reagan was great at this. The Democrats are not. As Arthur Brooks said of the constant pounding by Democrats on the issue of inequality of incomes, he does not think it smart for a political party to base its policy on one of the seven deadly sins. Fourth, our beliefs and our candidate need to be genuine, not some media creation based on focus groups and opinion polling. The candidate needs to be a real person, not a PR mish-mash of whatever sounds good. Reagan had this. He was what you saw. He was himself. (Both Bushes are this way, too.) The voters do not want some make-believe phony. They want to believe not just in a candidate’s beliefs but also in their real-ness as a person. There you have it. We may not, we probably will not, win the Presidency in 2008, but we can start to rebuild the Republican Party. To do that our candidate for President needs (i) great beliefs, (ii) the ability to communicate, (iii) hope, optimism, and the ability to appeal to the best in the American people, and (iv) genuineness.
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