It's Not Choking When You Lose to a Better Team

I missed the first round of the playoffs while I was on vacation. My daughter tells me I was lucky. Since coming back, I have read, and have had been told, that the Cubs "choked" in their series against the Diamondbacks.*

There is one problem with that theory: It is not choking when you lose to a better team. The Cubs had some good streaks after June 2, but for the season as a whole the Diamondbacks were the better team. They won five more games than the Cubs. And the difference was actually more than that because of the unbalanced schedule and the fact the Diamondbacks played in the best division in baseball, while the Cubs played in the worst division.

Let me explain. The average number of wins for a team in the NL West was 84.2. (The average in the AL West was 83.25 and the AL East was 81.6.) Because of the unbalanced schedule, the Diamondbacks played more of their games against good teams. The average number of wins in the NL Central was 76.5, more than four games worse than the next lowest division. The Cubs played more of their games against those teams.

Therefore, to really compare the Diamondbacks’ record and the Cubs’ record, do this quick comparison: Add the number of games above .500 for the average team in the NL West to the Diamondbacks’ total of 90 wins. That gives you an "adjusted wins" total of 93.2. For the Cubs subtract the number of games below .500 for the average team in the NL Central from the Cubs’ total of 85. That puts them at 80.5. That gives you a difference in the number of "adjusted wins" of 12.7 (93.2 minus 80.5). That does not sound like choking. That sounds like the Cubs were lucky to be there.

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* Why is it always fans and sportswriters, i.e., people who don’t play the game, who accuse teams and players of choking? Might it be that it is easier to talk about choking when you don’t have to do it yourself?

Comments

[Jennie]

Even though the Cubs did not technically choke, you were still lucky not to have to watch the games. I think most people will agree with me that it was a painful experience.