1. Back in May, when General Stanley McChrystal was appointed commander in Afghanistan, I voiced some concern that General McChrystal had come out of Special Forces side of the Army as opposed to having a counterinsurgency background. I wondered if he would "emphasize [having] Special Forces target … enemy leaders and high value targets" as opposed to adopting "a counterinsurgency strategy more like what General Petraeus implemented in Iraq". I needn’t have been concerned. General McChrystal has made it clear that counterinsurgency is his first priority.
According to The New York Times on June 12, "Gen. McChrystal has indicated it [his campaign plan] will closely resemble the strategy used in Iraq by Gen. David Petraeus …. Gen. McChrystal said he will push soldiers farther out of their bases and among residents, to bring a sense of stability to the people and to better develop nationwide intelligence." According to the Chicago Tribune on July 29, General McChrystal
"said his strategy aims to separate insurgents from the public and boost confidence in the Afghan government.
He acknowledged there were areas where the Taliban can operate and U.S. and alliance forces cannot routinely enter.
Over time, McChrystal said, the command would ‘reduce’ those areas, but the first priority will to be to ensure populated areas are free of insurgent influence."
2. It appears that the U.S. will be decreasing its reliance on drone attacks. While drone have their uses, and at times have been very successful, they also have severe limitations. They can kill the enemy without risking American lives. They also create a sense of insecurity on the other side. But the minuses can be bigger. Too often drone attacks miss their targets and kill innocent civilians. Also, if they make the enemy insecure, they make everybody else insecure, too. The goal of a proper counterinsurgency strategy is population security. Drone attacks too often create insecurity. This insecurity can create recruits for the other side, as can attacks that miss their targets and hit innocent people. Gen. McChrystal’s cutting back on drone attacks is a good sign. (The New York Times, June 22, 2009.)
3. Those who think it is important for the U.S. to succeed in Afghanistan should, in one way, be glad Barack Obama is President. The New York Times last week had an article on the difficulty that the Obama administration is having in coming up with "metrics" on which our progress can be measured in Afghanistan. Personally, I think metrics can be useful – as long as they do not become a substitute for really understanding what is happening in Afghanistan. But what was most interesting in the article were the comments by leading Democrats in the House and Senate which indicated, under the surface, a doubt as to how much they really support what we are doing in Afghanistan. As Democrats, they will give President Obama some slack. If a Republican was President, they might already be calling for withdrawal.
An example of that has recently occurred in New Zealand. Last fall, the Labour Party lost the election, after having led the government for nine years. When Labour’s Helen Clark was Prime Minister, New Zealand sent a contingent of SAS combat forces to Afghanistan three times. Now that Ms. Clark is gone and Labour is in opposition, the new Labour leader opposes New Zealand sending SAS forces back to Afghanistan. Instead of combat forces, he wants to send trainers. Times have changed, he says. Right, Labour is out of power now.
4. The biggest concern in Afghanistan is whether we have enough troops there. Compared to Iraq, we have fewer troops in a bigger country. This is particularly concerning when you consider that we did not have as many forces in Iraq as standard counterinsurgency strategy called for. But in Iraq we were able to make up the deficit in manpower with Iraqis because of things such as the Anbar Awakening. I do not know whether President Obama will send enough troops to Afghanistan. It is a concern.
5. If you want a feel for what is really happening in Afghanistan, as opposed to what you may read in articles from Kabul or by reporters who make just a short trip into the countryside, please see Michael Yon’s reports here.
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