I have been saying this for a couple of months, so I might as well write it down. Here is my prediction for the 2012 presidential election: Barack Obama will win unless two things happen. First, Barack Obama is perceived as having failed (or is perceived as failing) during the 2012 election. Second, the Republicans nominate a really good candidate.
Consider the two times in recent history when an incumbent president lost, 1992 and 1980. By the time of the 1992 election, George H.W. Bush was perceived as failing, in spite of our victory in the Gulf War, because the economy was seen as doing bad. (I don’t agree that George H.W. Bush was failing, nor do I think the economy was in that bad of shape by November of 1992; in fact, it was just getting ready to turn around. But the voters thought President Bush was failing.) And the Democrats nominated a really good candidate: Bill Clinton. The result: George H.W. Bush lost.
In 1980, Jimmy Carter was perceived as failing, what with the poor economy, the Iran hostage crisis, the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, etc. (In this case I agree with the perception.) And the Republicans had a really good candidate: Ronald Reagan. The result: Jimmy Carter lost.
Consider what may be a counter-example, 2004. There were certainly many people who thought George W. Bush was failing. Whether it was enough for him to lose the election we do not know – because the Democrats nominated John Kerry, who was, most definitely, not a really good candidate.
So, once again, my prediction for 2012: Barack Obama will be re-elected president unless, in the fall of 2012, he is perceived as failing as president and the Republicans nominate a really good candidate.
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