David Broder recently looked at a new poll done for a group called the Third Way. The poll was done by a company that has worked for Obama campaigns in the past, and the report accompanying the poll suggested a way the Democrats could improve their chances in November: "Run against George Bush." Actually, that is not exactly what it said. If that is all it said, it wouldn’t be a big deal since the Democrats haven’t stopped blaming Bush for everything bad since even before he was inaugurated.
Rather, what the poll said was, in Mr. Broder’s words, this: "Obama's economic agenda is preferred over Bush's by 49 percent to 34 percent." Greg Sargent in The Washington Post’s "The Plum Line" quoted the polling company as then explaining:
"If Americans believe that conservatives are espousing a return to the same economic ideas as those of the former President, the dynamic of the debate turns on its head. … In two separate split sample questions, we tested President Obama's economic plan …. When President Bush was inserted in the question, the Obama agenda easily won.
In other words, Democrats not only need to blame President Bush, they also need to convince voters that voting for Republicans for Congress will result in a return to the policies of George W. Bush
But while the poll tells Democrats what they need to try to do, it also points the way for Republicans. According to Mr. Broder:
"Unprompted, only 25 percent of voters in this survey said they think that if Republicans regain a majority, it will signal a return to Bush's economic policies. By comparison, 65 percent say a Republican Congress would promote ‘a new economic agenda that is different’ from Bush's."
"[A] generic conservative approach, pitting a leader ‘who will start from scratch with new ideas to shrink government, cut taxes and grow the economy’ beats one committed to sticking with Obama's policies, 64 percent to 30 percent."
So while Democrats argue that voting Republican means a return to the President Bush’s policies, Republicans have to convince people it won’t.
Now, the easiest thing for Republicans to do in this election would be to sit back and wait for people to vote them because they aren’t Democrats. But even if that works in November, it’s not going to work after November
Republicans have been given an opportunity they probably don’t deserve. After the overspending and mismanagement of the George W. Bush years, both in the executive branch and in Congress, it would not have been surprising if voters had stayed away from the Republicans for years. But the Democrats have made so many mistakes that people are starting to look at the Republicans again.
But this is where the Democrats’ attempt to link today’s Republicans with the policies of George W. Bush is a danger. If the Republicans just say what they aren’t (i.e., they aren’t Democrats), as opposed to what they are, the Democratic strategy of tying Republicans to George W. Bush’s economic policies may work, at least with enough voters to make a difference in a number of close races. Which means the Republicans need to do more than just say, vote for us, we’re not Democrats. Republicans need a positive campaign of their own, a campaign that will explain why electing Republicans in November will not result in George W. Bush redux.
And as part of doing that, I think the Republicans could do a lot worse than to take the Domino’s Pizza approach. Domino’s came on TV and admitted their pizza wasn’t any good, but they promised to make it better. And they did.
Republicans need to do the same thing. They need admit that they made a lot of mistakes the last time they controlled Congress. They spent too much; they earmarked too much; they didn’t keep things under control. Republicans need to say they are sorry, and they need to promise not to let it happen again.
For some people, Republicans still have a "brand’ of lower spending and smaller government. But the George W. Bush presidency and the Republican congresses of the 2000s put that brand in jeopardy. The best way for the Republicans to reclaim that brand, to reclaim their historic principles, it is to be honest with the American people: Admit their mistakes and explain why they are not going to do it again.
The Third Way poll showed a majority for ideas that would "shrink government, cut taxes and grow the economy." Those are good Republican ideas (or they ought to be), but Republicans need to do more than just promise. They need to show they mean it. That means taking positions, even it they aren’t easy – and doing it now. Identify things that need to be cut. This may upset the special interests who will lose their spot at the public trough. But if Republicans aren’t willing to take positions like this now, why would anybody believe they will do it after the election?
Some people will say this is dangerous. That may be true, but the alternatives are worse: Either the Republicans lose the election because the Democrats are able to convince people that voting for Republicans is voting for a return to the economic policies of George W. Bush or they win the election and risk falling back into the bad habits of the George W. Bush Congresses because they didn’t establish the policies they were going to follow before they won. The former lets the Democrats keep the messing up the country. The latter could mean Republicans will mess up the country again – and lose their own future, too. Because if the Republicans in Congress do it like they did before, it could be a long time before the voters let them have another chance.
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