I had originally planned on doing my thoughts about 2011 in one post, but I think it will work better in two posts, one on the hopes for next year (and beyond) and another on the concerns. So, my season-in-review will be divided into four parts (like Germany and Austria after WW II) instead of three (like Gaul).
Here are some of the hopeful signs for 2011. While we traded away Ted Lilly, he probably would not have been back anyway since he was a free agent and was going to be expensive. But even without Teddy, the starting pitching looks pretty decent. First, you have Dempster and Zambrano (another view on Carlos in the Part 4). There are a bunch of options for three through five. Obviously, Randy Wells. You might be able to get something out of Carlos Silva, but maybe 2/3 of a season was all we could expect. In any case, Tom Gorzelanny seems competent as a bottom of the rotation starter. And you can add Casey Coleman and Jeff Samardzija to the list of possibles. Another possibility is Chris Archer, our minor league pitcher of the year, who was lights out in AA Tennessee after a good first half at High A Daytona. After the season Archer pitched for Team USA in the qualifying tournament for the 2011 Pan American Games. He pitched 10 innings in two games with a 2.70 ERA and 15 strikeouts. He might not be ready in April, but after a little time at Iowa, who knows.
Relief pitching may need some work at the bottom, but Marmol and Marshall look solid at the top. And if Andrew Cashner can develop, he has a possibility to give you three good end-of-the game pitchers. Obviously, you need some guys to get you to those two (or three), but hopefully the experience some of the rookies got this year will help them in 2011 (like 2006 helped 2007). And who knows, maybe Jon Grabow will come back.
The outfield is a concern for next year (see Part 4), but the future looks good. Hopefully, Tyler Colvin can build on a pretty decent 2010. Beyond that, we have a couple of really good outfield prospects who couild be ready in ‘12. Brandon Guyer had break-out year at AA Tennessee (.344 batting average, .398 OBP and .588 slugging percentage) and was the Cubs’ minor league player of the year. Brett Jackson, the Cubs’ first round draft pick on 2009, was a Baseball America Top Ten Prospect for both the High A Florida State League and AA Southern League, as well as playing for Team USA. And he is a centerfielder. (Chris Archer was also a Southern League Top Ten Prospect, per BA.)
The infield is probably the biggest concern. Starlin Castro is set at short (one hopes). If Blake DeWitt does not work out at second, Darwin Barney looks like he could do a nice job, so second seems to be okay. First and third are for Part 4.
Catcher will be okay if we get the 2008/2010 Soto, instead of the 2009 version, dude. If Koyie Hill is not back, we ought to be able to find a decent backup somewhere.
Perhaps the best sign, however, is the emphasis that Tom Ricketts put on player development in his letter to the Cubs’ season ticket holders: “It is my strong belief that, in the end, it is organizations with strong farm systems that win championships.” Ricketts even said that, while the overall baseball budget (scouting, player development and payroll) would be about the same in 2011 as 2010, he foresaw a possible shift of resources from major league payroll to scouting and player development. That is encouraging” – with one qualification. Andy MacPhail always talked about developing from within, too, but he was able to get the people under him to actually do it. Let’s hope the Rickettses can get the job done.
---------
* I was also encouraged by Tom Ricketts’ comment that Tim Wilken is one of the best scouting directors in baseball – because it is true. I am glad he recognizes it.
PS: Part 4, on my concerns for 2011, could be a couple weeks off.
Comments