After Brooks Conrad’s three-error game for the Atlanta Braves on Sunday in Game 3 of the Phillies-Braves series, The Wall Street Journal ran an article entitled “Buckner Revisited: When an Error Decides the Game.”* The article looked at various errors in the division series this year and calculated the fielder’s teams’ “win probability” before the error and its “win probability” after the error. Mr. Conrad’s third error cut the Braves’ win probability from 51.8% to 14.7%, a huge amount. Mr. Conrad’s first error cut the Braves’ win probability, at that point in the game, from 46.4% to 40.6%. His second error cut it from 39.8% to 35.3%. Adding those together (assuming you can do that), gives you an overall reduction of 47.5% for Mr. Conrad’s three errors. That actually could put him the same class with Bill Buckner.
While “Billy Buck” is always blamed for losing the 1986 World Series for the Red Sox, that is not true. While his error let the winning run score in game 6 of that World Series for the Red Sox, the Red Sox would not have necessarily won the game even if he had made the play. The score was tied at that point. If Mr. Buckner had made the play, the game would have gone on to the eleventh inning. There was no guarantee the Red Sox would have won. In fact, given that the Mets were the home team, there probably was slight probability in favor of the Mets winning the game even if Mr. Buckner had made the play.
In any case, thinking about a 37.1% drop in win probability (or a 47.5% drop in win probability) makes Cubs fans think of that game in 1998 when an error dropped their win probability by 100% – and it doesn’t get any higher than that. I am, of course, talking about the Brant Brown game in the last week of the 1998 season. The Cubs were in Milwaukee, at old County Stadium. Rod Beck was on the mound. The Cubs were up by two. There were two outs and the bases were loaded. Brant Brown had been put into the game for defensive purposes. (That by itself is interesting, since Brant Brown was mainly a first baseman. Left field was his second position. Which shows you how bad Henry Rodriguez’s defense was.) A fly ball was hit to left field. Brant Brown had to move some, but not a lot. The ball hit the heel of his glove, and three runs scored. The Cubs probability went from 100% to 0% on one play. (This was the play that gave us the quintessential Ron Santo call: “Ohhh nooooooo!”).
But that is where the similarity between Brant Brown and Brooks Conrad/Bill Buckner ends. Mr. Buckner’s error came in the sixth game, so there was a game seven. The Red Sox even took a 3 to 0 into the sixth inning of game seven, but the Red Sox couldn’t hold the lead, and the Mets won the World Series.
Mr. Conrad’s error was in the Game 3 of the Division Series. The victory gave the Giants a 2 to 1 game lead. The Braves could have come back but they didn’t. They lost Game 4 – and Bobby Cox’s career was over.
The Cubs, however, came back. The loss to the Brewers put the Cubs one-half game behind the Mets in the Wild Card race. But the Mets lost their next four games, while the Cubs won 1 and lost 2, which let the Cubs finish one game ahead of the Mets. (Greg Maddux, then of the Braves, beat the Mets in the last game of the season.) The Giants, who were also in the Wild Card race, lost their last game of the season (thank you Neifi Perez) to finish in a tie with the Cubs for the Wild Card. The Cubs beat the Giants the next day, 5 to 3, in the first ever Wild Card playoff game. (See here.) An interesting point: Dusty Baker has managed two, win-and-advance/lose-and-go-home games at Wrigley Field. He lost both of them.
One other difference between Brant Brown and Brooks Conrad: Perhaps understandably, Bobby Cox benched Mr. Conrad for Game 4 of the playoffs. Jim Riggleman started Brant Brown in left field in the Cubs’ next game.
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* The Wall Street Journal, October 12, 2010
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