In an Op-Ed in Friday’s Los Angeles Times, Rajan Menon talked about what he saw as China’s overreaction to two incidents recently. One involved a Chinese fishing boat that went into waters adjoining a group of islands that both Japan and China claim (but which Japan controls). The other was China’s outrage at the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo. In the latter case, the Chinese government threatened the Norwegian government (even though they don’t decide who gets the prize), and it started a campaign to get European governments to boycott the awards ceremony in December.
In speculating on why China reacted as they did in these situations, Professor Menon said this:
“Perhaps China's loss of poise is temporary. Perhaps its leaders are playing to nationalist galleries at home because socialism no longer stirs popular emotions. (But that is a dangerous game; they may be hard-pressed to de-escalate future crises of a more serious nature.) Who knows?”
Professor Menon’s reference to China “playing to nationalist galleries” reminded me of a conversation my wife and I had three years ago when we were visiting Slovenia. We were talking with a lawyer in Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia. He talked about the breakup of Yugoslavia, and I asked him why it had happened. This is from the notes I took of our conversation:
“He said that Communism was no longer working (either economically or politically) in the 1980’s. It was failing. Therefore, in order to stay in power, the politicians had to come up with something else to appeal to the voters. (The politicians no longer believed in Communism, either. They just believed in staying in power.) The Communists in Yugoslavia, i.e., Milosevic, et al, came up with nationalism.”
He continued:
“Yugoslavia did not have to split up. It was a result of a lack of good politicians. The politicians they had in Yugoslavia could not handle the situation. The politicians could not figure out a way to maintain unity. Better politicians could have held Yugoslavia together.”
Nobody expects what happened in Yugoslavia to happen in China, but the Slovenian lawyer made a good point, as does Professor Menon: appeals to nationalism can be dangerous. Once begun, they can take on a life of their own. Those who resort to them can lose control of what they started.*
It is both interesting, and a little scary, that China’s leaders are turning to nationalism. Maybe they don’t control things as completely, and securely, as they used to – or as they want to. Maybe the current leaders aren’t good as their predecessors and are, therefore, turning to nationalism to keep control.
I do not know what these appeals to Chinese nationalism mean, but I don’t think it can be good. There is, supposedly, an ancient Chinese proverb that says: “May you live interesting times.” But it is meant as more of a curse than a proverb. Today’s Chinese leaders may agree, finding the times they are living in more interesting than they would prefer. Depending on what happens in China, the rest of the world may find it agrees, too.
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* For a scenario of nationalism gone wrong, see “China’s ‘Assassin’s Mace,” in 7 Deadly Scenarios by Andrew F. Krepinevich.
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