Last October I wrote a four-part series on the 2010 season and the then-upcoming 2011 season. This year I had going to be hard-pressed to do one decent-length post – for a couple of reasons. One, the Cubs stunk in 2011. Two, Cubs fans don’t have much reason to think 2012 will be all that much better. But first, for those of you who do not follow me on Twitter (@PatAllen_VfRF), a comment on the NLCS: As between a team whose drunk fans cursed my wife while we were just walking down the street (and the Cubs weren’t even in town) versus a team whose drunk fans spilled beer on my wife (and didn’t apologize or even seem to care), there isn’t much to choose.
As the Cubs look to 2012, it is easier to identify where they don’t have holes than to talk about where they do. There are probably three positions set with really good players for 2012: (i) shortstop; (ii) left-handed set-up (and alternate closer); and (iii) one starting pitcher. In other words, Starlin Castro, Sean Marshall*, and Matt Garza. Beyond that, every position is either a hole or filled with somebody who could be upgraded.
Obviously, some positions are “emptier” than others. Third base and right field are real holes, along with a couple of spots in the starting rotation. Other spots, like center field, catcher and one or two starting pitchers are positions that good teams would try to upgrade, but the Cubs will probably just go with what they have because other problems are worse.
Let’s look at what we have. Starting pitching-wise, there is Matt Garza. Ryan Dempster is a nice guy, but his ERA has gotten worse every year since 2008. Still, Ryan will be back because there are still three other starting spots to fill with Randy Wells, Rodrigo Lopez (if he’s back), Casey Coleman, Andrew Cashner (if his arm is okay), Jeff Samardzija (which creates a hole in the bullpen), and whoever there is in the minors.
The bullpen will consist of: (i) Sean Marshall; (ii) a closer who had a really bad year and who I am not sure knows how to get his groove back; and (iii) whoever else might be available. The only good news (and I’m not trying to be mean) is that John Grabow won’t be back.
Marlon Byrd might be adequate in center if you had good outfielders on the corners, but we don’t. Right field is a huge hole. Tyler Colvin was never able to come back after getting the bat splinter in the chest in September of 2010. I hope he can turn it around, but you can’t count on it. There is nothing that can be said about left field. Eventually, the Cubs will have to eat most of the rest of his salary. Will it be in 2012? I don’t know.
There is a huge hole at third, and I am not sure whether either Josh Vitters or D.J. LeMahieu is ready now. Maybe by 2013 or even the end of 2012, but not spring 2012. Darwin Barney did a fine job at second base, though he didn’t do as well in the second half as the first. Is that because the league figured him out or was it because of the knee he sprained beating the Brewers on June 13? I don’t know, but we have bigger problems than second base.
I expect Carlos Pena to be back at first. He is great defensively, and he gets his walks, but his batting average (.225) just isn’t good enough. I know he had a decent OBA (.357), but a walk is not as good as a hit for a middle-of-the-order guy. It doesn’t matter that much how a lead-off man gets on base, hit or walk. But when your number five batter is up with a runner on third and two outs, a walk is definitely not as good as a hit.
Catching is another weak spot that will probably be ignored because there are bigger problems. Still, Geovany Soto has to lose some weight to get back to where he was in 2008. Koyie Hill did his best, but it’s not that good.
Coming off the bench, Tony Campana is one of the most exciting players around. When he gets on first base, things happen. He is fun to watch. The question is whether he can get on base enough. The Cubs did have a Baseball America minor league All Star in Bryan LaHair. The only problem is that he was an All Star at DH, and the Cubs are in the National League.
I suppose the Cubs could do a 180o in 2012. What it would take, however, is for Brett Jackson to be ready next spring to take one of the outfield spots, Josh Vitters or D.J. LeMahieu to take over at third base, Darwin Barney to play like he did the first half for the whole season, Geo to play like 2008 (or 2010), Dempster to turn it around, Randy Wells and Casey Coleman to pitch like they have occasionally, and Carlos Marmol to get his touch back. In other words, 1989. It could happen, but I wouldn’t count on it.
So what do the Cubs do in the meantime? They are doing two things. One I am excited about. The other I am not. The one I am excited about is that they spent a lot of money in the amateur draft. In 2009 and 2010, the Cubs were near the bottom of the major leagues in paying bonuses to kids they drafted. This year they were fourth. That means they were able to draft the best players available, not just the kids who would sign cheap. They were even able to draft and sign a kid who was ranked in Baseball’s America top 50 prospects in the fourteenth round by giving him enough money to get him to bypass college. I have been saying that the Cubs need to build from within. This is doing it. This is exciting.
On the other hand, the Cubs are apparently planning to sign a big name general manager. I’m not excited about that. I got tired of the big name managers who were supposed to be the answer (Don Baylor, Dusty Baker and Lou Piniella). They weren’t. I don’t see a superstar GM being any different. It’s like players who sign big contracts and then have a bad year because they put so much pressure on themselves to prove that they are worth the money they are getting paid. A big name GM is going to want to do something right away to prove he is worth it. This could all too easily lead to unintelligent risk-taking. That is not the way to go. We need to build, not gamble.
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* Here is one I got really wrong. In May of 2009, I said “Sean Marshall Is Not the Answer for a Decent Left-Handed Reliever”. Obviously, I was wrong. In fact, Sean Marshall is more than just “decent” and he is way more than one of those left-handers who only comes in to pitch to left-handed batters. He has been great.
Update (10/12/11 9:00 am): Added a link to the May 2009 post about Sean Marshall.
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