In most of the polls so far, President Obama has been beating every Republican in two-person races. But when the President runs against an unnamed or generic Republican, i.e., “Any Republican,” he often loses. Which means, I guess, that there is some number of independent voters (which varies from candidate to candidate) who would prefer to vote for somebody other than President Obama but can’t quite convince themselves to do so when faced with certain Republicans. Part of this, of course, is because each Republican candidate comes with his or her positions on issues. While a voter might prefer to vote against President Obama in general, a specific Republican might make President Obama look less bad. The hypothetical “Any Republican” doesn’t have these problems.
Another reason for this difference is that the Republican presidential field is not all that great. We had potential candidates who might have been good (you can’t be sure until they actually get out there), but they wouldn’t run. Very understandably, Mitch Daniels decided that the privacy rights of his family were more important than running for President, which is something that a lot of people, including many in the media and those who consider winning more important than principle and fair play, ought to be ashamed of.
Chris Christie seemed like he would have been a good candidate, but Daniel Henninger at The Wall Street Journal had a good point: Part of what makes Chris Christie so good is that he knows New Jersey.* Governor Christie probably wouldn’t know certain national issues as well as he knows New Jersey, at least at the start. (Governors, unlike private citizens – and unlike senators, have a job to do, and they can’t ignore everything else to focus on a campaign or getting ready to campaign.) With 24-7 news, would Governor Christie been able to get ready? He could have been ready by the time of the campaign against President Obama, but maybe not by the end of his first news conference as a presidential candidate. If this is why he decided not to run, that is another unfortunate comment on the system.
Others, like Paul Ryan, may like the detail work of legislation and real policy choices more than the giving speeches and broad generalities of running for president.
And so, with the first votes in New Hampshire (or wherever) just a few weeks away, the candidates the Republicans have are the choices the Republicans have.
(In this regard, it is too bad that Tim Pawlenty dropped out. As happened to McCain in 2007-08 and as we have seen in 2011, candidates can go up and down, or down and up. I understood, when Governor Pawlenty dropped out, after that idiot straw poll in Iowa last July, why he did so. But it is sad that he did. By now, after we have had a chance to get to know some of the other candidates, he might have looked pretty good. But he wasn’t getting the contributions, and he didn’t have enough personal money to finance his own campaign. It was too bad.)
The only thing you can say is that any plausible Republican candidate (which excludes Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, and hopefully Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann) would be better than our current president. It is just too bad that the process has, over the years, evolved in such a way that so many potentially good candidates are either excluded or exclude themselves.
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* Daniel Henninger, “Gov. Christie Rest His Case,” The Wall Street Journal, October 6, 2011.
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