The United States will be deploying an advanced missile defense system to Guam in the next several weeks. The system is designed to protect against North Korea. It was originally scheduled for 2015, but it has been moved up because, in effect, the leader of North Korea is crazy. It’s great the missile defense system is being sent to Guam two years early, but you sort of wonder why it wasn’t planned for deployment this year, if not last. It’s not like the fact the leader of North Korea is crazy is any kind of surprise. It’s been obvious for a while. And it was obvious about his father before him.
North Korea has been developing short, medium, and even long range missiles for a long time, just as they have been working on nuclear weapons. Putting 2 and 2 together tells you we should have already had a missile defense system on Guam.
It’s also good that we are bolstering our defense against long-range ballistic missiles on the west coast. There are two concerns, though. First, it will take several years to get the system up and running, which is several years too long. Second, part of the system we are installing on the west coast to protect against the North Koreans had to be transferred from Europe where it was supposed to protect us (and Europe) against Iran (here and here). Which sounds like we are raising our guard against North Korea by lowering our guard against Iran. Maybe that is something we have to do in the present situation, but we need to increase our missile defense efforts so we are not in this same position three or four years from now.
The problem, of course, is that Democrats in general (or at least most of them), and President Obama in specific, don’t like missile defense systems. President Obama was, after all, talking about missile defense when he told then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, that he would have more flexibility after he won re-election and would not have to face the voters again.
It doesn’t seem like there has been any kind of urgency in the Obama administration when it comes to missile defense. Their timetable for deploying a missile defense system on Guam was, obviously, two years late. We don’t know whether their plan for protecting the west coast of the U.S. will be timely, but given that it is several years off, you have to worry. And who knows when we will have anything that will protect us (and Europe) against Iran. That is a real worry because, while Iran’s nuclear program may be behind North Korea’s, its missile program is ahead of North Korea’s.
And it’s not just the United States that we have to be worried about protecting. There are our allies, too. Before you say “phooey on them,” consider a couple of things. First, we have promised to protect our allies. And promises are supposed to mean something. Second, one of the key components of our nuclear nonproliferation efforts is our commitment to use our nuclear arsenal to protect our allies. It’s like this: If our allies trust us to protect them with our nuclear umbrella, then they won’t need to develop nuclear weapons themselves. It is that commitment by us that has convinced countries like Japan and South Korea that they don’t need to develop their own nuclear weapons. If our commitment is viewed as weakening (either because we aren’t as trustworthy as we used to be or because our technology isn’t keeping up), then other countries will want to, or will feel a need to, develop their own nuclear weapons.
A further thought: Missile defense has not been part of the United States’ nuclear guaranty in the past. Against the Soviet Union, it didn’t make sense. But things may be different now. Israel’s “Iron Dome” was a success in last year’s fighting in the Middle East. Also, when nuclear threats come from countries like North Korea and Iran, missile defense is a realistic possibility. Defending against thousands of Soviet missiles is one thing. Defending against two or three missiles from some rogue country is eminently doable – as long as you try.
But if the United States doesn’t try, other countries may see our nuclear umbrella as not providing them enough protection. If other countries think they can’t rely on us, and given that missile defense is harder than nuclear weapons, they may feel forced to develop their own nuclear weapons to provide at least some kind of mini-MAD protection against a rogue nation that tries to threaten them. (See, for example, here.)
The bottom line is that missile defense is important, both to protect us and, by protecting our allies, to support our non-proliferation efforts. We need to increase our efforts on missile defense now. Because if we wait until we need it, it will be too late.
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