The Obama administration is pushing hard to get Congress to wait on new, tougher sanctions on Iran. The Administration feels that its diplomatic efforts need time to see if they can work. The Administration is hopeful about its negotiations with new Iranian President Hasan Rouhani and argues that further sanction would undermine President Rouhani’s position vis-à-vis hardliners in Iran. President Rouhani is, in the Administration’s view, fighting hardline groups in Iran who want to continue Iran’s nuclear program and who are critical of any outreach to the West.
According to The Wall Street Journal:
“New sanctions in Iran, Obama administration officials believe, could only embolden the hard-liners to attack Mr. Rouhani. ‘We can always impose new sanctions later if the Iranians pull back from the talks,’ said a senior U.S. official.”
I understand the Administration’s position. What the Administration is missing, however, is a couple of things. First is trust. Lots of members of Congress don’t trust the Administration. Failed budget negotiations between the President and House John Boehner have eroded trust. Senator Marco Rubio says one of the reasons that immigration reform is going to have a hard time passing is because people in Congress don’t trust the Administration to follow through on its promises of enforcement if the law is passed.
When it comes to foreign policy, the President’s indecision on Syria make it hard for anyone, in Congress or elsewhere, to know what his final position will be on any matter. It’s like musical chairs – without knowing how many times the band is going to play.
More specifically on Iran, while the Administration touts the success of sanctions on Iran, what they don’t say is that many of the current sanctions were passed over the Administration’s objections. The Administration likes the results, but it opposed the policies in the first place.
This is where the Administration’s comment that “we can always impose new sanctions later” doesn’t work. Many in Congress don’t trust the Administration to do it. They are worried the Administration will always think that one more negotiation session will result in success; that one more delay will get the Iranians to agree. They don’t think that the Administration would ever admit negotiations had failed and support new sanctions or that they would do it too late.
Second, it’s not just a matter of the United States imposing new sanctions if talks with Iran fail. To the extent sanctions are working now, it is because lots of countries are imposing them. It hasn’t been easy to get some of those countries to agree to sanctions. If we back off now, other countries will, too. If talks fail, we not only have to impose new sanctions ourselves, we have to get other countries to impose them, too. Many countries don’t care about Iran’s nuclear program. They just want to buy oil. They just want to sell stuff. Re-imposing sanctions, after backing off on them, would be really hard, if not impossible.
I understand why the Administration thinks putting off additional sanctions on Iran (and probably even lessening up a little on current sanctions) would be good. The problem that many in Congress, and elsewhere, have is a lack of trust – in Iran and the Administration.
Comments