Yesterday President Obama warned Russia about threats it might make and actions it might take against countries that were either part of the Soviet Union or under effective Soviet control as members of the Warsaw Pact:
“With respect to the broader issue of states that are bordering Russia and what assurances do they have about future land grabs, as you put it, obviously some of those countries are NATO countries. And as NATO allies, we believe that the cornerstone of our security is making sure that all of us, including the United States, are abiding by Article 5 [of the NATO Treaty – see here] and the notion of collective defense. And what we are now doing is organizing even more intensively to make sure that we have contingency plans, and that every one of our NATO allies has assurances that we will act in their defense against any threats.”
I was glad to see President Obama making statements like this. But we need to do more than just make statements. I am not sure how impressed President Putin is by any verbal redlines the United States draws. It’s not what we say that is going to deter Russia; it’s what we do. And in terms of protecting our NATO allies, and stopping Russian aggression, what we need to do is to stop the cuts in defense spending. Instead of reducing the size of the Army and the Navy and the Air Force, we need to maintain their size.
In today’s Wall Street Journal, former Defense Secretary Robert Gates explained:
“The only way to counter Mr. Putin's aspirations on Russia's periphery is for the West also to play a strategic long game. That means to take actions that unambiguously demonstrate to Russians that his worldview and goals—and his means of achieving them—over time will dramatically weaken and isolate Russia.
Europe's reliance on Russian oil and gas must be reduced, and truly meaningful economic sanctions must be imposed, knowing there may be costs to the West as well. NATO allies bordering Russia must be militarily strengthened and reinforced with alliance forces; and the economic and cyber vulnerabilities of the Baltic states to Russian actions must be reduced (especially given the number of Russians and Russian-speakers in Estonia and Latvia).
Western investment in Russia should be curtailed; Russia should be expelled from the G-8 and other forums that offer respect and legitimacy; the U.S. defense budget should be restored to the level proposed in the Obama administration's 2014 budget a year ago, and the Pentagon directed to cut overhead drastically, with saved dollars going to enhanced capabilities, such as additional Navy ships; U.S. military withdrawals from Europe should be halted; and the EU should be urged to grant associate agreements with Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.”
Following on from what former Secretary Gates said, now is the time to make sure that the purpose of defense spending is defense, not congressional pork. Unnecessary military bases need to be closed. Weapons should be built where it is the most cost-effective to build them, not where some congressman wants them built to help a company in his or her district.
While I was glad to see President Obama reaffirm our NATO commitments, I do not think it was smart of him to dismiss President Putin and Russia as a mere “regional power”. What Russia does in Europe, affects the whole world. Former Secretary Gates again:
“Tacit acceptance of settling old revanchist scores by force is a formula for ongoing crises and potential armed conflict, whether in Europe, Asia or elsewhere. A China behaving with increasing aggressiveness in the East and South China seas, an Iran with nuclear aspirations and interventionist policies in the Middle East, and a volatile and unpredictable North Korea are all watching events in Europe. They have witnessed the fecklessness of the West in Syria. Similar division and weakness in responding to Russia's most recent aggression will, I fear, have dangerous consequences down the road.”
I understand that some Americans may see what is happening in Ukraine as “a quarrel in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing”. If that is true, then it is up to President Obama to not only warn President Putin and Russia, but to explain to the American people what needs to be done and to make sure they support our doing it.
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