Megan McArdle writes that “America rarely chooses presidents from among its ranks of foreign policy experts.” I don’t disagree with her. Our last several presidents have been good examples of this.
However, we have, in recent memory (or at least in my memory), at least twice elected presidents who knew what they were doing in foreign policy and succeeded in it. First, Richard Nixon. He opened the door to China. He secured arms limitations agreements with the Soviet Union. And he just might have succeeded in Vietnam if his own failings in Watergate had not enabled those who wanted us out of Vietnam, regardless of what happened to our South Vietnamese allies, to get what they wanted.
Second, and even a better example: George H.W. Bush. He drew a line in the sand when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and he followed through on it. But he also knew when to stop, and he did.
More importantly, George H.W. Bush, along with people like Helmut Kohl, James Baker and Brent Scowcroft, helped achieve something that nobody expected or even seriously dreamed of before they did it. As Ms. McArdle notes:
“[B]ecause we usually don’t know where the next crisis will be, it’s hard to say exactly what sort of foreign-policy expert you want – who had ‘Afghanistan’ in the office presidential-zone-of-interest pool during the 2000 election? Or ‘Libya’ in 2008?”
In that regard, who had German reunification and dissolution of the Soviet Union in the office pool in 1988? Nobody, but George H.W. Bush had the experience, temperament, and ability to help accomplish something that could not have been believed even the year before: German unification in NATO. Freely-elected democratic governments throughout Eastern Europe. The dissolution of the Soviet Union and democratic governments established in parts of it. All without war. It was amazing. And an example of what the right president can do if he or she is in office at the right time.
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UPDATE (2/28/15 12:20 am): I deleted a sentence from the last paragraph that I didn't think added to my point.
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