This time last year (and the year before, and the year before that; actually this time every year since the Ricketts bought the team), people started talking about who the Cubs would be trading away. Finally, it looks like this year may be different (though I shouldn’t get ahead of myself; you can never tell whether we will swoon in June).
Still, if we can avoid having to sell in July, should we be aggressive buyers? I say no. I understand the Cubs have lots of prospects in the minors. Some people will ask: Why don’t we trade some of those prospects to get what we need to win now? It is a legitimate question, but I wouldn’t do it. Here’s one example:
At the beginning of July last year, the Oakland A’s were in first place in the AL West. Billy Beane, however, felt the A’s needed more starting pitchers to do well in the playoffs. So, who did he come to? The Cubs, course. The Cubs were in their normal selling mode. The Cubs had traded two starting pitchers in 2012 and again in 2013. They were ready to do it again.
Not only that, but neither Samardzija nor Hammel stayed in Oakland. Jeff went to the White Sox, and Jason Hammel is back with the Cubs. Also, Addison Russell is now the Cubs’ starting second baseman, and Billy McKinney did so well at High A Myrtle Beach that he got promoted to AA Tennessee, where he is batting over ,300.
The Cubs can’t gloat, though. Tampa Bay Rays’ ace Chris Archer is a former Cubs prospect we traded for Matt Garza in January of 2011. And American League All Star third baseman Josh Donaldson? The Cubs traded him, and others, for Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in 2008. We did make the playoffs that year, but we didn’t win a game in them, and I don’t think Messrs. Harden and Gaudin made the difference in us getting there
One other example. In 1989, Damon Berryhill went down with an injury in late August, while the Cubs were in the race for the NL East. Who did the Cubs have to catch? Joe Girardi (at that point just a rookie) and Rick Wrona. But instead of trading for a veteran catcher, the Cubs stuck with the kids and still won the division.
The point is that the Cubs have a lot of good prospects, but you never know which prospects will turn out, so you need a lot of prospects in order to get a few good players at the major league level. Also, sometimes, the people you trade for don’t work out either. Jason Hammel, for example, was great for us last year (and is again this year), but he was horrible for the A’s. Finally, many times the kids work out.
If we can get somebody good in July, especially a relief pitcher, I would be happy to do it – but only if we don’t have to give up the future. Because the future looks too good to give up.
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