When Will Illinois Get a Budget? January?

Illinois has been without a budget for almost eight and one-half months now.  The Democrats in the state legislature passed an unbalanced budget back in late May, but Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner vetoed it (or at least most of it) because it provided for more spending than it raised in revenue.  Since then, not much has happened.  It is sort of bizarre, but apparently a lot of things can, or have to be, paid for even without being authorized by the state legislature – because of federal law, court decisions, etc.  Therefore, most things are getting done and getting paid for.  Also, Governor Rauner did not veto the appropriations for elementary and secondary schools.  Social services are hurting, as are the state colleges and universities, but the state is limping along and the pain for the average citizen isn’t that great – so far.

But still, one would think the State needs a budget sometime.  The problem is:

(i) The Democrats in the state legislature won’t pass a balanced budget if that means reducing spending to the levels allowed by the current revenue levels that Illinois has.

(ii) Governor Rauner won’t agree to a tax increase (which would fund spending at levels in the budget the Democrats passed {or at least close to it}) without at least some of the changes¹ that he considers essential to improving Illinois’ business climate: changes to workers compensation system; not requiring the state to pay union-level wages on construction projects; right-to-work laws in certain economically depressed areas; etc.

(iii) Democrats in the legislature won’t agree to any of the changes that Governor Rauner wants.  They say you shouldn’t mix Governor Rauner’s proposals with the budget (which would mean, of course, Governor Rauner’s changes wouldn’t happen.)

Which sounds like a stalemate.  Or at least it has been a stalemate because, while the Democrats have veto-proof majorities in both the House and Senate, the margin in the House is razor-thin.  The Democrats have exactly the number of votes they need in the House to override a veto by Governor Rauner.  And they have not been able to do it; in part, maybe particularly, because of one state representative from Chicago: a Democrat by the name of Ken Dunkin.  Representative Dunkin has voted against the overrides (or abstained, which is the same thing, because to override a governor’s veto you need 60% of the members elected to each house in the General Assembly, not 60% of those voting). 

This has made the Democrats more than a little upset (an understatement), and they are running an opponent against Representative Dunkin in the primary next Tuesday.  This is a big deal because supporting people in primaries against incumbents is not something Michael Madigan, Speaker of the House and chairman of the Illinois Democratic Party, normally does.  But he is doing it.  In fact, they have even gotten President Obama to record an endorsement for Representative Dunkin’s opponent.  In other words, it’s a “big f***in’ deal,” in the words of Joe Biden.

All of which is a long way round to wondering whether at least some Democrats in Illinois are thinking about putting off the solution to Illinois’ budget crisis until January of next year.  The theory would be this:  If the Democrats can beat Ken Dunkin in the primary and then retain all of the seats they currently hold in the November election (which seems very possible given the turmoil in the Republican Party – and seems almost likely if Donald Trump is the Republican presidential nominee), come January they could pass the budget they wanted – and override any veto by Bruce Rauner.  It would probably be an unbalanced budget (I am not sure the Democrats would have the votes to pass a tax increase over Governor Rauner’s veto), but it would be a budget.  And it would be passed.  And it would be theirs.²

It could be that the Democrats are not planning on waiting all the way until January.  Maybe they will just use Representative Dunkin’s defeat, assuming he loses, and the threat of overriding Governor Rauner’s vetoes next January, to increase the pressure on the Governor now.  I’m not sure.  But if the Governor won’t capitulate, it could be January.
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¹ I use the word “changes” instead of “reforms” to avoid arguments on how to characterize what Governor Rauner wants to do.

² If you want to be cynical, not only would that solve the budget crisis, it would teach the Governor that you don’t cross the Speaker.