Illinois Has a Budget. Sort of. Maybe. Not Really.

Illinois has a budget.  Well, sort of.  Well, not really.  What Illinois has is a spending plan that gives enough money to schools so they can open in September (or August) and operate for the school year.  And a spending plan for the rest of the government (or at least most of it) for six months.  Of course, while they passed a spending plan, they didn’t pass anything about paying for it, other than borrowing money from special funds and other accounting tricks. 

It looks like Governor Rauner’s theory is to agree to this and then work to get some more Republicans elected to the state legislature in November.  That will increase his bargaining power vis-à-vis the Democrats in the legislature and hopefully get some of his turn-around ideas adopted.

Speaker Madigan’s theory seems to be to get more Democrats elected to the state legislature, so the Democrats can do whatever they want in terms of spending without worrying a gubernatorial veto.

The question with respect to Speaker Madigan’s plan, though, is not about spending.  The question is about taxes.  I think it is pretty clear Speaker Madigan wants to pass a spending plan without having to agree to any of the Governor’s turn-around plan.  But what about taxes?  Is the Speaker going to pass the necessary tax increases to pay for his spending plan with just Democratic votes?

The Speaker has generally not been willing to do that.  He has always demanded Republican votes, too, to raise taxes.  Even when there was a Democratic governor, and the combination of the Democrats in the legislature plus the Democratic governor was enough to pass things, he has never wanted to pass a tax increase without Republican votes.  Apparently, he was worried the Democrats would get blamed for raising taxes and then lose seats in the legislature.  And it seems like the one thing Michael Madigan is most wants to avoid is the Republicans getting control of the Illinois House, like they did after the 1994 election.

So here is my guess for what will happen next year if Speaker Madigan gets a few more Democrats elected to the Illinois House of Representatives in November.  He’ll pass his spending plan without regard to Governor Rauner or the Republicans.  But he won’t pass a tax increase to pay for his spending plan without Republican votes.  Because that might jeopardize his Democratic majority – and he acts like that is the most important thing to him.