Just before the election, I wrote a post entitled “On Election Day, I’ll Be Voting for Estonia.”1 As I noted in that post, and others before that, Donald Trump has threatened to abandon our NATO allies.2 According to Mr. Trump, NATO is obsolete, and the United States is being taken advantage of. If a country isn’t spending NATO’s target of 2% of its GDP on defense, Mr. Trump threatened to ignore our commitment under Article 5 of the NATO agreement to defend them if they are attacked. I don’t know if President Trump would really do that (I hope not), but letting Vladimir Putin think he might is dangerous. It could encourage Mr. Putin to try things he would not otherwise do.
The other thing you have to worry is how much Mr. Trump would stick up for Estonia, and other NATO members, if our commitment to them came up in negotiations with Russia. Mr. Trump sees himself as a dealmaker. The problem is, if Vladimir Putin said that a deal with Russia had to include weakening support for Estonia, etc., what would Mr. Trump do? I know what other presidents would have done. I don’t know what Donald Trump would do.
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