The 1970 Russian Nuclear Sub Base in Cuba That Could Have Been an Example for President Obama

President Obama held a press conference on Friday before leaving for Hawaii for Christmas.¹  The big topic, of course, was the intelligence reports of Russian election hacking and the CIA conclusion that the Russian hacking was designed to help elect Donald Trump.  As for foreign hacking that could interfere with actual vote counting, I’ve already talked about how we can deal with that.

Trying to sound cool and calm, President Obama said:

“There have been folks out there who suggest somehow if we went out there and made big announcements and thumped our chests about a bunch of stuff, that somehow it would potentially spook the Russians.  I think it doesn’t read the thought process in Russia very well.”

Which is a good thought, except for the fact he did exactly what he said was a bad idea.  In the words of The New York Times, “Mr. Obama said he was committed to sending the Kremlin a message that ‘we can do stuff to you’.”  Also, President Obama said that he told President Putin in September “to cut it out, there were going to be serious consequences if he did not.”  All of which sounds to me just like the kind of “big announcements” and “chest thumping” that President Obama said “doesn’t read the thought process in Russia very well.”

If President Obama really wanted to see how to handle this situation properly, he could have looked back to how President Nixon handled the question of a Russian nuclear submarine base at Cienfuegos, Cuba, in 1970.  If your first thought is “I never heard about that,” that is exactly the point.

In September of 1970, U-2 flights over Cuba noticed new construction activity in Cienfuegos Bay, Cuba.  Further flights showed that construction was proceeding rapidly on what appeared to be a Soviet nuclear submarine base.  Obviously, this was unacceptable.  We didn’t go through the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 to get Soviet nuclear missiles out of Cuba and just turn around and allow Soviet subs carrying nuclear missiles to base in Cuba.

But instead of going public, President Nixon decided to proceed privately, “giving the Soviets an opportunity to pull out”² without turning it into a public crisis.  The President met with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin.  Private messages were sent to the Kremlin.  Eventually, after several weeks, and some face-saving delays, “the Soviets abandoned Cienfuegos.  Through strong but quiet diplomacy we have averted what would have been known as the Cuban Nuclear Submarine Crisis of 1970. … The Soviets had decided to take advantage of the maneuverability a low profile afforded.”

Prompt action³, private channels, respect for the other side⁴, and skillful diplomacy averted a crisis, and we achieved what we wanted.  It would have been a good example for President Obama.  And while I am not hopeful, it would be a good one for President Trump, too.
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¹ I note that President Obama always leaves for Hawaii, or wherever, before Christmas.  President George W. Bush didn’t go to his ranch until after Christmas Day.  (Note this article from the Los Angeles Times in 2002.  The Bushes left for Texas on Thursday, December 26.)  That way all of the Secret Service people (and the news reporters, etc.) could spend Christmas with their families.  I realize being president is exhausting, etc., but President Obama’s only got one month left.  Couldn’t he have waited just once?
² The quotes in this paragraph are from Richard Nixon, The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (1978), p. 488-89.  Perhaps not surprisingly, Henry Kissinger’s account of this matter in Henry Kissinger, White House Years (1979), p.632-652, makes Mr. Kissinger sound like the hero of the story.
³ The New York Times account indicates that President Obama’s conversation with Vladimir Putin did not occur until upwards of twelve months after the FBI first contacted the Democratic National Committee about a foreign government hacking its computer system.
⁴ Was it really necessary for President Obama to say, once again in the words of The New York Times, that “Russia [is] a smaller, weaker country that “‘doesn’t produce anything that anybody wants to buy, except oil and gas and arms.’”  How does disrespecting somebody, or some country, like that help relations?