The View from Right Field

Unpredictability In a President: Good or Bad?

While the rest of the country is consumed by reports of what Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller has done so far and speculation as to what he might do next,¹ let me talk about a different subject: Donald Trump and predictability.  During the campaign last year, Donald Trump said that he would be unpredictable as president, which he has been, big time – and that he saw this as a plus:

“I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing – or thinking.  I like being unpredictable.  It keeps them off balance.”

Then-candidate Trump said that a business associate described his unpredictability “as one of my better qualities.”  Maybe unpredictability works in one-off business negotiations.  Maybe unpredictability gives you an advantage in a particular business deal.  But is unpredictability a good thing in government?  I wonder.

Martin Luther’s 500th Anniversary – And a Visit to a Country That No Longer Exists

“Martin Luther’s 500th Anniversary” refers, of course, to the 500th anniversary of Martin Luther nailing his 95 Theses to the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany, on October 31, 1517.  This date and this act are usually seen as the beginning of the Protestant Reformation. 

This 500th anniversary of Martin Luther brings to mind an earlier 500th anniversary of Martin Luther, the 500th anniversary of his birth, which was celebrated in 1983 (he was born on November 10, 1483).  The 500th anniversary of Luther’s birth was celebrated under somewhat different circumstances than the current celebration, however, because Wittenberg, as well as most of the other Luther sites, were in East Germany at the time.

When the Germany Democratic Republic was founded in 1949, Martin Luther was persona non grata for the East German communists.  Even in 1979, when we first visited East Germany, the Luther sites were open, but they weren’t promoted.  By 1983, however, things had changed.  The East German leadership was now seeing Martin Luther as the “initiator of a grand revolutionary movement,” in the words of Erich Honecker, the head of the East German Communist Party, and was promoting his legacy, at least as they interpreted it.¹  Whether this was to attract hard currency from Western tourists or gain support from Lutherans in East Germany, I don’t know.  Probably, both.

This reminded me of an article I wrote about our travels to East Germany in 1979 and 1982.  When I wrote the article in the summer of 1983, it was a sort of travelogue.  It is still a travelogue, but now it’s a travelogue to a country that no longer exists – for good reason. 

The Re-Election of Donald Trump: How It Could Happen

Most people think, maybe even assume, that Donald Trump will not be re-elected in 2020, assuming he is still in office at that point.  But then, most of the people who think Donald Trump can’t win re-election in 2020, didn’t think he could get elected in 2016.

Let me suggest the following scenario for President Trump’s re-election (obviously, this assumes we are able to avoid, among other things, nuclear war with North Korea in the next three years): The Republicans fail to pass any kind of respectable tax reform bill, and Trump steps up Twitter attacks on the Republican leadership in Congress.  More Republicans decide not to run for re-election in 2018, and they, like Senators Corker and Flake, get involved in Twitter wars with the President.  The Republican circular firing squad results in the Democrats winning the House and the Senate in 2018.

DNC and Clinton Campaign Paid for Russian Opposition Research on Trump

Based on reports in The Washington Post Tuesday evening, we now know that the Democratic National Committee and the Hillary Clinton campaign gave money to a law firm, who gave money to a political opposition research firm, who gave money to a former British spy, who was supposed to look for whatever information he could find about connections between Donald Trump and Russia, which most probably means the British spy gave money to a bunch of Russians to get “dirt” on Donald Trump.¹ 

The result of these payments was the famous (or infamous) dossier of, in the words of the Post, “salacious claims about connections between Donald J. Trump, his associates and Russia” that was published by Buzzfeed in January.  And which nobody in the mainstream media would publish before the election because they could not confirm the claims in it.

A Traditional Conservative in the Republican Party

In announcing his decision not to run for re-election today, Senator Jeff Flake (R, Ariz) said:

“It is clear at this moment that a traditional conservative who believes in limited government and free markets, who is devoted to free trade, and who is pro-immigration, has a narrower and narrower path to nomination in the Republican party – the party that for so long has defined itself by belief in those things.”

A narrower path to nomination and a narrower path to meaningful participation.

(i) The National League West #WorldSeries and (ii) #Cubs Fans Know Baseball

First, so the National League West gets a World Series to itself and the American League gets left out.  Other than feeling bad for Starlin Castro, now of the Yankees (Starlin deserves to play in a World Series), that’s fine with me.  The American League is, after all, the “junior circuit”.  As for who I am be rooting for, I don’t care.  The main thing is that pitchers and catchers report in less than four months.

Second, a couple of comments on Cubs fans.  The difference between Cubs fans and fans in other cities was pretty clear in the postseason this year.  During the NLDS with the Nationals, Nats employees walked through the stands in Washington with signs telling the fans when to cheer or that there were two strikes on the opposing team’s batter.  Things were different in Chicago, as even the Nationals players noticed:

Whither the Cubs in 2018?

It probably speaks to how good the Cubs have become (who would have thought Cubs fans would ever be able to say that), that Thursday night’s game against the Dodgers felt so bad.  In 1998, the Cubs were swept in the NLDS by the Braves, but after an epic game 163 against the Giants¹ to win the wild card spot, Sammy’s 66 home runs, and Kerry Wood’s 20-strike game, it didn’t seem that bad.  In fact, after the Braves briefly celebrated their win, the Cubs came back on the field, to thank their fans, who had stayed around to thank the players in return.

And in 2015, when the Cubs were swept in the NLDS by the Mets (properly, “the Hated Mets”), the season didn’t feel like a failure, either.  We had the Jake Arrieta/Kyle Schwarber Wild Card game in Pittsburgh and the win in the NLDS over the Cardinals (whose fans, per Bill Murray, are “Satan’s messengers on Earth”) – and hope for the future.

Donald Trump and Calls to Families of Those in the Armed Forces Who Are Killed in Action

As those who read this blog probably know, I do not go around defending Donald Trump very often.  However, I am not going to pile on with respect to President Trump’s call to the widow of one of the soldiers who was killed in Niger a couple of weeks ago.  President Trump probably should have, as John Kelly recommended, not made the call.  As General Kelly (ret.) said, those are the toughest calls in the world to make.  And Donald Trump is not known for his artfulness with words.  It is also entirely possible that what General Joseph Dunford said to General Kelly, when General Kelly’s son was killed in Afghanistan, was not what somebody should have said to a young widow.  Still, President Trump tried, even if his reactions to the criticisms of his call would have been better not made.

On the other hand, one has to wonder about the Democratic congresswoman who decided to politicize this matter.  And one has to remember that, if not for her, this wouldn’t be the story it has become.  I have not read all the stories about his call (and I don’t intend to; there are more important issues out there), but did the congresswoman let President Trump know she was listening in when he made the call?  And was her publicizing what she heard on the call done to help the widow who had lost her husband or to “get” Donald Trump?

Separate and apart from his reaction to the criticisms of his call to this young widow, President Trump was trying, in his own inept way, to do the right thing when he made the call.  Can the same thing be said about the Democratic congresswoman?

@realDonaldTrump: Such a Small, Small Man

While controversies have risen regarding what Donald Trump said or didn’t say to parents on service members killed overseas, let me go back to something that happened earlier this week.  On Monday night, Senator John McCain talked of the good that comes from the United States playing a leading role in the world:

“‘To fear the world we have organized and led for three-quarters of a century, to abandon the ideals we have advanced around the globe, to refuse the obligations of international leadership and our duty to remain ‘the last best hope of earth’ for the sake of some half-baked, spurious nationalism cooked up by people who would rather find scapegoats than solve problems is as unpatriotic as an attachment to any other tired dogma of the past that Americans consigned to the ash heap of history.’”

#Cubs and the 2017 #NLCS. Per Yogi Berra: “It Ain’t Over Till It’s Over”

I was a little hesitant about quoting this Yogi-ism since it is from 1973 (which was actually a worse season than 1969 {and here} and Yogi was the manager of the Hated Mets that year).  But when it’s right, it’s right.

The only thing I would say is this: Joe, given how well the bullpen has done this postseason, stick with Kyle (Tuesday night) and Jake (Wednesday night) as long as you can – and then a little bit longer.  Because they’re better than the bullpen is going to be.  The more times you go to the ‘pen, the more likely it is going to fail.  So don’t go any more than you absolutely have to - and less than that, if possible.

Go Cubs Go!
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UPDATE (10/16/17 2:50 pm): Added a couple of links to the 1973 Cubs season.