Unpredictability In a President: Good or Bad?

While the rest of the country is consumed by reports of what Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller has done so far and speculation as to what he might do next,¹ let me talk about a different subject: Donald Trump and predictability.  During the campaign last year, Donald Trump said that he would be unpredictable as president, which he has been, big time – and that he saw this as a plus:

“I don’t want people to know exactly what I’m doing – or thinking.  I like being unpredictable.  It keeps them off balance.”

Then-candidate Trump said that a business associate described his unpredictability “as one of my better qualities.”  Maybe unpredictability works in one-off business negotiations.  Maybe unpredictability gives you an advantage in a particular business deal.  But is unpredictability a good thing in government?  I wonder.

It seems to me that predictability, in the sense of reliability or trustworthiness, is very important for a president – and a country.  In fact, I see reliability and trustworthiness as a president’s, and a country’s, greatest asset: You want our friends and allies to know that when we say something, we mean it – and we will follow through on it.  We want them to trust us and feel that they can rely on the United States – and its leaders.

There can be situations in foreign affairs where a president doesn’t want our adversaries to know exactly what he or she is are going to do.  However, as a president, you do want other countries to know that, if you draw a red line or make a commitment, you will follow through on it.  You also want to make sure they know you will respond if they threaten our critical interests.

I might add that this is especially true with respect to nuclear weapons.  Surprise or unpredictability is not a good thing when you are dealing with nuclear weapons.  You do not want to get in a situation where the other side is surprised about when you use nuclear weapons or how you respond to their use of nuclear weapons.  You do not want to stumble into a war, any war, because the other side was surprised by what you did.  When it comes to nuclear weapons, or any weapons, for that matter, predictability is the rule.  Period.

This is true in politics, too.  If you want somebody to support you, you have to be there to support them.  If you are going to ask a Senator or Representative to go out on a limb for you, you can’t be sawing that limb off the next day. 

Reliability and trustworthiness are a politician’s most important assets.  You aren’t going to win tough votes or get people to agree to support you in difficult situations, unless they are confident you are going to be there for them, too.  If they agree to support you, you can’t be changing your mind the next day or going back on your word. 

In the military, your fellow soldiers will have your back because they know you will have theirs.  Because you are in it together.  And you all know you can trust each other.

It’s the same in politics, and this is a problem with President Trump.  I wonder how many of the people on Capitol Hill really believe that, if they support President Trump on tough issues, he will support them on others.  I wonder how many of them will risk supporting him when they know he might change his mind the next day.  In fact, I wonder how many of them would be surprised if, when the going gets tough, President Trump wouldn’t be there. 

There are times when surprise or a change of policy is appropriate.  Richard Nixon going to China is the prime example of that.²  But there is a difference between a policy change like that, and the kind of who-knows-what-he-is-going-to-do-next unpredictability that President Trump has been demonstrating.  Richard Nixon’s surprise was part of a carefully thought out strategic vision.  President Trump’s unpredictability seems to come from watching TV news shows.  In October of 1967, Richard Nixon wrote a long essay, “Asia After Viet Nam,” in Foreign Affairs Magazine.  On Sunday morning, President Trump sends out a series of 140-character tweets.³

It is one thing to change direction as a part of a carefully thought out change in policy.  It is another to be unpredictable because you really don’t have any firm beliefs.  The former increases your trustworthiness and reliability as a friend and ally because it shows you are thinking and smart.  The latter just makes people leery of trusting you or relying on you. 

People aren’t going to go out of their way or take risks for somebody they can’t rely on in return.  If you want me to have your back, I need to know you’ll have mine.  That’s the way politics and government works.  It’s the way with life, too.  I don’t know if President Trump realizes this – or if he will ever understand it.  Which is not good for the United States in the world or for the policies President Trump says he is trying to get passed in Washington.
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¹ Actually, it is not the whole country.  It is just that part of the country which is obsessed with government and politics – or that Donald Trump is President; i.e., not that many people.
² There is an old Vulcan proverb: Only Nixon could go to China.
³ Sometimes he will tie two or three tweets together to get up to 400 characters.