Is Vladimir Putin Having Buyer’s Remorse?

The Democrats’ story of the 2016 presidential election has been that (i) Vladimir Putin hacked and otherwise interfered with the election to elect Donald Trump president or (ii) President Trump and his campaign colluded and conspired with the Russians – or maybe both.  Even The Washington Post says that the second is not proven (“yet” is the operative word for the Post), but it’s not stopping the Democrats from believing it. 

According to the Democrats, the Russians were trying to help Donald Trump because President Putin really disliked Hillary Clinton (for, inter alia, her comments, while Secretary of State, about Russia’s presidential election in 2012 and because of all the nice things Mr. Trump was saying about President Putin and Russia during the campaign.

Of course, if Vladimir Putin really thought Donald Trump had a good enough chance to get elected that it was worth Russia trying to help the process along, then President Putin was a more astute observer of the American political scene than most of the journalists and other media people in the United States who were following the election.  They were shocked when then-candidate Trump won.

My question here, however, is somewhat different.  Assuming Vladimir Putin and Russia did all these things to help Donald Trump get elected,¹ and assuming Russia’s help was the little extra that pushed Mr. Trump over the finishing line, you have to wonder how President Putin feels about his “investment” now.  Consider some of the things that have happened since President Trump took office:

• President Trump no longer says NATO is obsolete.
• NATO is increasing its forces in Poland and the Baltic states and stepping up its readiness exercises in eastern Europe.
• More and more Russian oligarchs are getting hit with U.S. trade sanctions.
• The new U.S. security overview specifically identifies Russia, and China, as the main potential enemies of the U.S.
• Last week, President Trump approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, something President Obama never did.  (The Trump administration previously approved the sale of anti-tank weapons to Georgia.)

If the Democrats’ theory is right, Vladimir Putin must be wondering why he went to so much effort to get Donald Trump elected.  After all, when Hillary Clinton was first appointed Secretary of State, she gave Russia a big red “Reset” button to show how much better U.S.-Russian relations would be with George W. Bush gone.  In 2012, Barack Obama told then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to tell Vladimir Putin that, once President Obama was reelected, he would have more flexibility in negotiations with Russia on ABM systems.¹

All in all, you have to wonder if Vladimir Putin is having buyer’s remorse.
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¹ As opposed to the Democrats and Hillary Clinton running a terrible campaign.
² As we can see with North Korea today, there was no reason to worry about or work on reliable ABM systems back then.