When Stability Is Most Expected, Change Often Intrudes: Russia

There is a tendency in foreign affairs, as in life generally,¹ to assume that things will continue as they are.  Of course, this is not true, but people still get surprised when things change.  Examples of this are too numerous to mention, though I feel obligated to list a couple.  In December 1944, nobody expected a German offensive on the Western front.  Voila, the Battle of the Bulge.  The same could be said for the Tet Offensive in Vietnam in 1968, except for the fact that, when the Battle of the Bulge was over, we understood it was a German defeat.

A more recent example is the January 1989 statement by Erich Honecker, leader of East Germany, that the Berlin Wall would be around for another 50, or even 100, years.  Oops.

Which brings me to Russia and China.  Last week, Vladimir Putin “won” reelection, for another six years, as President of Russia.  In China last year, Xi Jinping was reelected to a second five-year term as president, and this year he has gotten the Chinese constitution amended to eliminate the limit on the number of terms he can serve.  Which would seem to indicate there will be stability in both countries for quite a while.  I wonder.

While President Putin was elected to another six-year term (and one should not disregard the possibility that he, like President Xi, might change the constitution so he can serve longer), Russia is a country on the decline, both demographically and economically.  With what it is doing in Ukraine and the Middle East and with its meddling in other peoples’ elections,² it may seem like Russia is on a roll.  But Russia is basically just an exporter of raw materials, i.e., oil and gas.  Its main hope for the future is for energy prices to go up – and stay there.  If prices go down or if the amounts of oil and gas Russia can sell go down, Russia is in trouble. 

It is this possibility, this weakness, that is the worry.  It may lead President Putin to take risks.  Like a gambler – or an investor – trying to recoup losses, President Putin may see Russia’s best, and only, chance as upping the stakes and hoping the other side folds.  He may convince himself that Brexit or Donald Trump gives him the opening to take a chance. 

Vladimir Putin may see the red line we didn’t enforce in Syria or President Trump’s tirades against NATO members who don’t pay their fair share towards defense as giving him a final chance to break apart NATO.  And he might decide he needs to act now because Russia will only be weaker in the future. 

Instead of Vladimir Putin’s reelection being a sign of strength, it may be a last gasp of a Russia that wants to reclaim its role as a world power.  Which is dangerous.  One should never assume that an American president, and the American people, won’t fight back if pushed too far.  Kim Il Sung thought he could invade South Korea.  Nikita Khrushchev thought he could install nuclear missiles in Cuba.  Osama Bin Laden, looking at Vietnam and Lebanon, thought we would just slink away after 9/11.  But in his desperation, President Putin may miscalculate.

The best way to make sure President Putin doesn’t miscalculate is to be strong and be clear, and to work with our allies, to insure he understands that we aren’t going to back down and that, while Russia has the right to do what it wants internally,³ it doesn’t have the right to control other countries or tell them what to do.  And that, while we in the West may disagree among ourselves on specific policies, he can’t break us apart when it comes to the underlying principles of freedom, justice, and democracy.

NEXT TIME: CHINA
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¹ Including, especially, investing.
² The effects of Russia’s meddling in our elections have been magnified by those who can’t seem to accept the fact the Democratic Party nominated for president in 2016 just about the only person who could actually lose to Donald Trump.
³ Subject, of course, to applicable rules of international agreements and standards.