A few comments on President Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal:
1. Nobody can say that President Trump didn’t tell us he was going to do this. The only surprise, I suppose, is it took him so long.
2. President Trump’s ability to withdraw the United States from this agreement is a result of the fact President Obama merely signed the agreement himself, instead of submitting it to the Senate for approval. The problem with the “I’ve got a pen, and I’ve got a phone”-way of doing things is that your successor has a pen and a phone, too. And they can use their pen to change whatever you did with your pen.
3. How is President Trump going to convince North Korea to enter into a nuclear agreement with us if he unilaterally withdraws from other nuclear agreements we have entered into, even ones that may not be all that great?
4. The Trump administration apparently thinks it can use the importance of our role, i.e., the role of U.S. banks and U.S. currency, in the international financial system to get other countries to, in effect, re-impose sanctions on Iran. The idea is, as I understand it, that we won’t let U.S. banks deal with Iran – or with any companies, anywhere in the world, that deal with Iran (with certain exceptions). Therefore, if companies, and countries, want to use our banks and our banking system, they can’t deal with Iran in ways we don’t want them to. And, as the international financial system is currently structured, it is very difficult to do international business without involving the U.S. banking system.
The thing about power like this, however, is you have to be careful about when and how often you use it. You can, in the right situations and a limited number of times, use this power to get other countries to do what you want. However, if you try to use it too often, and/or in cases that other countries really object to, other countries will eventually decide they need to come up with another way to do business that doesn’t involve the U.S. banking system. It won’t be easy, and it will take them time, but they will figure it out. There are countries, like China, who would be more than happy to help them set up a system that doesn’t involve the United States. Once that happens, you not only can’t ever use that power again. It also means you have less influence in regular situations, too.
This is the kind of third or fourth-level effect that I wouldn’t necessarily expect President Trump to think about. I would have hoped, however, that Secretary of State Pompeo or National Security Adviser Bolton would have thought of it. But maybe they did, and they decided this situation was important enough to take the risk – or maybe President Trump ignored them.
5. It would probably be better if President Trump’s language on this issue wasn’t so harsh and extreme. Things aren’t always the best or the worst, the greatest or the most horrible. Things are usually some of this and some of that. Shades of gray, as the song (definitely not the book) goes. But President Trump is what he is, and at least on this point, it is getting to the point that it doesn’t make sense to keep complaining about it.
Comments