The View from Right Field

Inflation Finally Hits the Fed’s Target. Is This a Good Thing?

One assumes the Federal Reserve is happy that inflation is up.  After falling below the Fed’s 2% target for six years, the Commerce Department has reported the CPI for personal consumption items, excluding food and energy, was up 2% on a year-to-year basis in May.  And the index including food and energy was up 2.3%. 

As an aside, it is interesting that the Fed apparently likes to look at the former, because it is less volatile, when consumers focus on the latter because that is what they pay.  To the extent that expectations regarding inflation matter, and many economists believe they do, one would think the latter might be of more relevance.

The Retirement of Anthony Kennedy – And What Might Have Been

It is interesting how things turn out.  With Justice Kennedy retiring, President Trump has a chance to nominate a replacement, assuming he can find one acceptable to all 50 Republican senators¹ and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can get the nomination through the Senate this fall.  How much better it might have been for the Democrats if, back in 1986, Teddy Kennedy had not “borked” the nomination of Robert Bork to replace Justice Lewis Powell, who was then retiring.  Robert Bork died in December of 2012, and if he had been on the Court (and not Justice Kennedy), President Obama would have been able to nominate a replacement.  Instead, President Reagan nominated Anthony Kennedy.  And now President Trump has the opportunity to nominate his replacement.
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¹ With John McCain being ill, the number of Republicans is effectively down to 50.

For America To Be Its Best, We First Need to Respect Each Other

Long before Ron Chernow’s new biography of Ulysses S. Grant came out, or even before the reconsideration of Grant by historians began twenty years, I have found Grant’s story an inspiring one. 

Grant graduated in the middle of his class at West Point, known mostly for his ability to handle horses.  He fought in the Mexican War, but spent more time than he wanted in the quartermaster corps (learning, in the process, much that would help him in the next war).  After the Mexican War, he was often separated from his beloved wife Julia, and eventually had to resign from the Army, probably for being drunk because of loneliness.

He tried numerous jobs after he left the Army.  He failed as a farmer.  He failed as a debt collector (he was too tenderhearted.)  Finally, he was forced to work for his father, and younger brother, in the family dry goods business in Galena, Illinois, which is where he was when the Civil War broke out.

70th Anniversary of the Berlin Airlift

I don’t have enough time to write a proper post on this subject, but I cannot ignore the 70th anniversary of the first flight of the Berlin Airlift, on June 26, 1948.  As I have said before, the story of the Airlift is amazing.  On June 24, 1948, the Soviet Union blocked the western land routes to Berlin.  Two days later, and just three years after the Allies had defeated the Germans in a war that lasted almost six years for the British, the U.S. and Britain started an around-the-clock airlift to supply West Berlin with everything it needed to survive, from food to coal.  The Airlift lasted fifteen months, and turned enemies into fast friends.  It may have been the biggest defeat the Soviets suffered in the Cold War until the Wall itself came down in 1989.

When Trump Meets Putin: Will He Agree NATO Should Not Have Expanded East?

It looks like Donald Trump may be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vienna before the NATO meeting in mid-July.  If they meet, I am sure President Putin will raise his complaint about Eastern European countries joining NATO.  Given that President Trump agreed with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that U.S.-South Korea military maneuvers constituted “war games” and were “very provocative,” the very terms that North Korea uses in its propaganda to criticize the maneuvers, it is entirely possible President Trump will agree with President Putin.  The fact President Trump thinks NATO members are ripping off the United States perhaps makes it even more likely he will agree with President Putin.

However, if President Trump does agree with Russia on this, then he will be wrong, very wrong.  The historical record is unclear as to what the United States and USSR agreed with respect to NATO expansion when Mikhail Gorbachev agreed to German unification and the right of a united Germany to stay in NATO.  While the official documents didn’t contain any promises about NATO expansion, it is possible the Soviets understood NATO wouldn’t expand as it did.  But regardless of what the Soviets, now Russians, understood back then, there is nothing wrong with the NATO expansion that occurred. 

Any Publicity Is Good – As Long As They Spell Your Name Right

My father-in-law used to say that, for politicians, any publicity was good publicity – as long as they spelled your name right.  It didn’t matter what the article said about you.  If they spelled your name right, it was good publicity.

While my father-in-law passed away long before Donald Trump became political, I think he may have gotten President Trump – and the media – exactly right.  Since President Trump entered the race for the Republican presidential nomination three years ago, the media has been “All Trump, All the Time.”  The media loved then-candidate Trump – especially the TV and cable networks – during the Republican primaries.  While other candidates were pretty much ignored, Donald Trump was covered 24-7.  Because people would watch and ratings mean money.

A Cashless Society Plus China’s Social Credit System Equals …

­In May, FT Weekend had a long article on the increase in the number of payments being made electronically and asked, “Does cash have a future?” The subheadline read: “Electronic payment is quick, convenient, germ-free and can deter crime, from tax evasion to terrorism.  So why are we so reluctant to give up on coins and notes.”¹

The pluses of cash-free transactions are many.  For businesses, more cash-free transactions mean lower costs.  There are fewer break-ins by people looking for money.  Not having to handle cash is cheaper: you don’t have to count it; and you don’t have to physically take it to the bank.

Donald Trump and a “Rogue Superpower”

Robert Kagan writes in The Washington Post about Donald Trump turning the United States into a “rogue superpower”:

“Since the end of the Cold War, it has widely been assumed that U.S. foreign policy would follow one of two courses: Either the United States would continue as primary defender of the international order it created after World War II, or it would pull back from overseas commitments, shed global responsibilities, turn inward and begin transitioning to a post- ­American world.  The second approach was where U.S. foreign policy seemed headed under President Barack Obama, and most saw the election of Donald Trump as another step toward withdrawal.

It turns out there was a third option: the United States as rogue superpower, neither isolationist nor internationalist, neither withdrawing nor in decline, but active, powerful and entirely out for itself. …

Pitching, Pitchers, and Baseball

In 1971, Ferguson Jenkins started 39 games and completed 30 of them.  In 1974, he started 41 games and finished 29.  In both of those seasons, he completed more than four times the number of complete games that any team had in 2017.  In fact, the 59 games he completed in those two seasons equals the number of complete games that all 30 major league teams had in 2017. 

To show that Fergie was not a one-off, Rick Reuschel, who pitched from 1972 to 1991, had 102 complete games in his career, including twelve in 1987, which was double the number of complete games that any team had in 2017, except the Indians, who had seven.

If Only Nixon Could Go To China, Can Only Donald Trump Solve North Korea?

If, as the old Vulcan proverb says, only Nixon could go to China, is it possible only Donald Trump can solve the problem of North Korea’s nuclear weapons?  In a joint statement with Kim Jong Un, President Trump has agreed, in exchange for North Korea’s promise to “work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” to suspend joint military exercises with South Korea.

If Barack Obama had agreed to that, which I don’t think he would have, I would have criticized him for naiveté in the extreme.  We have given up the right to conduct military exercises with South Korea, in exchange for a promise that North Korean leaders have made before – and broken every time.  Why is this time different?  Is it because President Trump has a special bond with Kim Jong Un?  Like he said he had with President Emmanuel Macron of France.