The View from Right Field

Where Does the Republican Party Go After Donald Trump?

While Donald Trump has only been president for a little over a year and a half (it seems longer, doesn't it?), with the 2020 election starting in January of next year (assuming it hasn't started already), it is perhaps not too early to start looking at the question in the title this post, since it could happen in a little more than two years.¹

In an editorial (“What has become of the Republican Party?”) and a long article (“How the elephant got its Trump”) back in April, The Economist touched on this question.  One of the most interesting points in the article was that Trump supporters came to the Republican Party before President Trump did.  Donald Trump didn’t create the populist wing (or whatever you want to call it) of the Republican Party.  He merely took advantage of it.

John McCain, RIP

When I got to Wrigley Field today, I noticed the American flag, on top of the scoreboard, in centerfield, was flying at half-staff.  And before the National Anthem, there was a moment of silence.  Because the Cubs know a hero when they see one.

The “Boudreau Shift”: The Original Defensive Shift

With Bryce Harper having a bit of a down year in his free agent season, the question is whether his numbers this year are just a quirk, the kind of one-off bad season that stars sometimes have (see, for example, Ernie Banks in 1963 and Ron Santo in 1962), or are the result of something else, i.e., defensive shifts.  Baseball America had an article recently about how defensive shifts are especially hurting left-handed pull hitters.  Like Bryce Harper. 

When Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred was asked a couple of years ago about the effect shifts might have on the amount of offense in baseball, he said his expectation was that hitters would adjust.  Well, they haven’t.  You get the occasional single to left field or bunt down the third base line by a left-handed power hitter, but you are not seeing any significant amount of Wee Willie Keeler “hit-‘em-where-they-ain’t” hitting.  There are probably a couple of reasons for this.  First, the money isn’t in hitting singles to the opposite field.¹  Second, and perhaps more important, that’s not how these guys have hit their entire life.  They were taught to pull the ball.  They were brought up hitting the ball to right field.  It’s what they do.  You can’t change that overnight.

What’s Worse? Fake News or the Cure

I find the panic about “fake news” a little overdone.  I understand there are a lot of news stories out there that aren’t true, but it’s been that way for a long time.  The National Enquirer has been at my supermarket checkout lane for decades.  That’s pretty fake news. 

If by fake news, you mean lies, they’ve been around for a long time, too.  Hitler lied about the Jews.¹  Stalin lied about Katyn Forest.  Vladimir Putin lies all the time.  Crimea.  Ukraine.  The shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight 17.  Anybody who believes Vladimir Putin isn’t paying attention.²

It could be, with the Internet, fake news today travels a little faster and gets a broader distribution, but so does everything else. 

The Cubs in Late August: Winning Without Scoring – It’s Not Going to Work in the Postseason

For a team that is leading the National League in batting average and OPS and is third in total runs scored, the last four games have not been what we want: one run in each game, a solo home run.¹  The amazing thing is that the Cubs actually won two of the four games – and only lost another in the eleventh inning.

While it is great to win two out of four games when you only score one run a game, the pitching we wasted was depressing.  Look at the stats for the four games.  First, the relievers: collectively, they gave up one run in 16-2/3 innings.  That’s an ERA of 0.55.  The four starters were almost as good: four runs in 20 innings, for an ERA of 1.80.  And if you leave out Tyler Chatwood (and it would be nice if we could), they were better: one run in 18 innings.  Ex Chatwood, that’s an ERA of 0.50.

Another August 8 Anniversary: Georgia, 2008

I am referring, of course, to the Georgia of Tbilisi, not Atlanta.  Ten years ago today, during the Olympics in Beijing, Russia invaded Georgia.  Robert Kagan recalls what happened: 

“Vladimir Putin struck one of the first major blows [against the liberal world order] when he sent Russian forces into South Ossetia in neighboring Georgia in support of Russian-backed separatists.  The Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, fearing a full-blown invasion, ordered his troops to attack [i.e., attack the Russians who were in Georgia], thus springing Putin’s trap.  Using the Georgian attack as a pretext, Putin launched that full-blown invasion, with tens of thousands of troops, fighter aircraft and elements of the Black Sea Fleet all pre-positioned and ready to move the instant Saakashvili acted.”

The West pretty much ignored the Russian attack.  Even though Georgia had contributed more troops to the war in Iraq than any other non-NATO country, George W. Bush refused to provide military equipment.  We only provided humanitarian aid (like the Obama administration did in Ukraine).

August 8 Anniversaries: 1968 and 1988

August 8 this year brings up two significant anniversaries.  The first, which I have commented on before (and here), is the 30th anniversary of the first scheduled night game at Wrigley Field.  I say “scheduled” because, while the game started, it never finished.  It starting raining in the fourth inning and didn’t stop.  (Well, it eventually stopped, but not soon enough.)  And so, instead of a baseball game, we got Greg Maddux, et al, sliding on a rain-slickened tarp.  (You can just barely see it here, along with a really young Paul Sullivan.)  The first official night game was the next night.

The other is the 50th anniversary of Richard Nixon’s nomination for president by the Republican Party in 1968.  As we said back then, “Nixon’s the One.”

Uncertainty

I have talked before about how uncertainty can slow down the economy.  Businesses won’t invest if they are uncertain what the future holds.  During the Obama administration, uncertainty in regulatory matters, what the government was going to do, what new rules or costs the Administration might come up with, was a drag on the economy.  It seems like President Trump’s “trade wars” are probably a bit of the same today, and it could get worse.

But uncertainty is just as much of a problem, if not more, in foreign affairs.  Almost regardless of what your position is, it is better if other countries know what your position is and know that you will follow through on it than if they are uncertain.  Which brings me to Donald Trump.

What we have seen so far is President Trump saying, or tweeting, one thing and his administration saying something else.  President Trump denies (at least sometimes) that the Russians tried to interfere with the 2016 election.  People in his administration, such as Dan Coats, Director of National Intelligence, say the exact opposite.  President Trump rips on NATO.  Secretary of Defense James Mattis goes on trips trying to reassure our allies that our commitment is still strong.

What Can We Learn from the Financial Crisis – and Could It Have Been Handled Better?

As Harvard professor¹ Greg Mankiw says, the conventional wisdom is pretty clear on what caused the 2008 financial crisis:

“In the mid-2000s, the nation experienced a housing bubble.  A combination of stupidity, negligence and malfeasance led a bunch of Wall Street firms to make excessively risky bets that the bubble would go on forever. …

[W]hen the bubble burst, these new homeowners defaulted in record numbers, and the Wall Street firms headed toward insolvency. ...

Fortunately, policymakers came to the rescue.”

My Strategy for the 2020 Presidential Election

As the 2018 political campaign picks up speed (assuming it ever slowed down), Democratic presidential hopefuls are already planning for 2020.  I don’t know if Donald Trump is thinking about 2020 yet, but given that he normally doesn’t seem to think even a week ahead, let alone two years, it is perhaps doubtful.

In any case, I have come up with my strategy for the 2020 election – and it mirrors what worked so well in 2016.  First, the Cubs make the postseason.  Then, they win the NLDS and the NLCS.  Finally, the World Series goes the full seven games – and the Cubs win!  Then comes the victory parade.  And presto, by the time the parade is over, the election is the next week.

In 2016, that gave me a presidential campaign of about four days, which was more than enough.  With a little luck, the Cubs can do it again in 2020.  For that matter, it sounds like a good plan for this year, too.  Though it would be okay if the World Series didn’t go the full seven games – as long as the Cubs win.  I could handle a slightly longer campaign, if necessary.