The View from Right Field

Are We Bugging Out of Afghanistan?

According to news reports, United States and Taliban negotiators have agreed on two key points of a settlement in Afghanistan: (i) the United States will withdraw its forces from Afghanistan; and (ii) the Taliban will ensure that no international terrorist attacks are made from Afghanistan.  U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad told local media in Afghanistan said that the U.S. and the Taliban had agreed in principle on two important points, and Taliban sources said what the points were.  Still to come, though, are the details on these two points, as well as agreements on two other issues the United States has raised: (iii) direct negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government; and (iv) a comprehensive ceasefire, neither of which the Taliban has been willing to agree to. 

Predictably, observers such as David Rohde at The New Yorker were excited.  Mr. Rohde said:

“The news sparked surprise – and applause – from American diplomats who have tried and failed to negotiate with the Taliban in the past.  ‘I think this is the beginning of a credible process for the first time in ten years,’ Dan Feldman, who served as the Obama Administration’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, told me.

Yet Another Shutdown Post

The shutdown is getting to be silly.  But, as Janan Ganesh said in today’s Financial Times, it is continuing because “[n]either party values its own objective as much as it values the denial of the other side’s.” 

The problem, however, is not how long this shutdown will last, but how long the next one will last.  Because given the attitude of President Trump and his supporters on one side and Congressional Democrats and their supporters on the other side, there will be another one, if not more than one.  Perhaps September 30, when the federal government’s fiscal year ends.  Maybe some time before that if the national debt limit needs to be raised or if something needs to be done and one side or the other thinks it can turn it into a battle it can win.

The shutdowns will keep happening – until enough of us get mad enough at both sides that they finally understand we care more about government operating, and government employees getting paid, than we do stopping the other side from getting what it wants.  Unless we would rather the government shutdown and government employees not get paid if that is what it takes to stop the other side from getting what it wants.

“Investing” in Light Bulbs

I needed to buy some light bulbs last week, and when I went to the store, I had sticker shock.  I have noticed that light bulbs are costing more, but the price increase really hit me the other day at Menards.  Maybe Menards is not the cheapest place to buy light bulbs, and maybe the ones I bought weren’t the least expensive.  But still, four 100-watt equivalent light bulbs cost me $16.97 plus 10.5% sales tax – and that was only because I had a 15% off coupon.  Otherwise, they would have been $19.97 plus 10.5% sales tax.  That’s $5.52 per bulb.

I can afford to pay that much for light bulbs, and I understand that, over the long run I will save lots of money on my electric bill (the 100-watt equivalent bulbs only use 16 watts and the supposedly last for thirteen years), not to mention that they are better for the environment because I am using less electricity.

34th Annual Cubs Convention – January 18-20, 2019

Here is my annual report on the Cubs Convention.  As always, I will talk about some things that did not make the mainstream media.  The main stories were pretty much what was expected: The Cubs aren’t going to sign a big-name free agent (spelled B-R-Y-C-E  H-A-R-P-E-R) because they think the guys they have in-house are good enough¹ and because they don’t want to go too far over the salary cap.²  Joe Maddon needs to connect with millennials.³  The Cubs have yet to promote a Theo Epstein-era draft choice to the major league pitching staff.⁴  Kris Bryant thinks St. Louis is boring, though, as Paul Sullivan noted, Kris Bryant doesn’t drink, so maybe that is part of it, and some Cardinals players got upset.⁵  The Cubs don’t like the local alderman.⁶  The Cubs are going to have their own television network starting in 2020, with details to come – sometime.⁷  To the Convention:

Opening Ceremonies:

• They had an incredible number of players there, 31 current players and 41 alumni.  It is really great to see the alumni, some of whom are even older than me, though that number seems to be decreasing each year.
• They ended the 2018 video with Pedro Strop’s one-inning of scoreless relief.  As good a place as any.

John C. Bogle, RIP

John Bogle, the man who essentially invented the idea of index fund investing for individual investors, passed away yesterday at the age of 89.¹

In 1976, the Vanguard Group, the company which was formed by Mr. Bogle in 1974, established First Index Investment Trust, the first index mutual fund for individual investors.  The fund only collected $11 million during its initial underwriting, but today, the fund, now known as Vanguard 500 Index Fund, has more than $400 billion in assets. 

Illinois Faces Hard Choices – But the Solution Is Simple

In his inaugural speech, new Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker said that Illinois must make “hard choices” and that “[o]ur abdication of responsibility must end.”  I agree.  But while the problems Illinois faces may be hard, the solution to those problems is quite simple.  As I have said before, for too many years (many more than just four), Illinois has spent more money and promised more money to its employees in pensions than it was willing to collect in taxes.  What Illinois now must do is tax more than it spends – until it catches up.

While the solution is simple, the politics is hard.  Are Governor Pritzker and the members of the legislature willing to tax more than they spend, by increasing taxes and/or cutting spending, until Illinois pays its bills and fund its pensions?  And are they willing to explain to the people of Illinois that cutting spending will hurt and that increased taxes can’t just come from somebody else; that everybody is going to have to pay more?

More importantly, though, are the citizens of Illinois willing to support politicians who are willing to tell them truth and do what is necessary to make Illinois something other than a national joke for financial mismanagement?
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UPDATE (1/23/19 9:35 pm): A version of this post was published as a letter to the editor in the Wednesday Journal of Oak Park and River Forest on January 23, 2019.  See here.

A Few More Comments on the Stupid Shutdown

A few comments on the federal government shutdown, though I am not sure they add all that much to what I wrote back on January 3.  In any case, it is all the news, so here goes.

1. As I understand the shutdown, it boils down to this:  President Trump thinks that it is better to have a government shutdown than it is to not build the wall he wants to build.  The Democrats in Congress, on the other hand, think it is better to have a government shutdown than it is to let President Trump build the wall he wants to build.  Or, at least, that is how they are acting.

Illinois Gets a New Governor. And Keeps the Same Legislative Leaders.

Last week I asked who would cause Illinois Governor-elect J.B. Pritzker more problems, his supporters or his opponents.  My guess was that it would be his supporters.  Well, Governor-elect Pritzker takes office on Monday, and he will find out over the next few months.  In any case, this week, the new legislature was sworn in, and the same old legislative leaders were re-elected.  In the Senate, Senate President John Cullerton had some nice things to say to outgoing Republican Governor Bruce Rauner:

“We may have had our differences, from time to time, but you took on a challenge when others merely complain from the sidelines.  Thank you, and I wish you and your family the best.”

Standard Chicago Political Practice Gets Indicted – Again

The big story in Chicago, other than the Bears (until yesterday, unfortunately, is the indictment of long-time Chicago alderman Edward Burke,¹ chairman of the City Council Finance Committee (he has now said he will step down as chairman), among other things.²  Alderman Burke was charged with attempted extortion for using his position as alderman to get business for his private law firm from a company wanting to renovate a Burger King restaurant in his ward and needing permits, etc.  A few comments:

1. If Alderman Burke did what is alleged, that is just stupid.  The company involved here apparently owns 100+ Burger King franchises.  This is a big company that very possibly has obligations under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.³  If it is covered, it will have policies and controls in place to comply with it.  Trying to extort money from companies like that is dumb.

Comments on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Investigation

A few comments on Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, not in any particular order.

1.  First, I have no idea when Mr. Mueller will be completing his investigation and/or issuing a report. While there have been reports in the press that it might be soon, nobody knows – or at least nobody who is talking about it in the media knows.

2.  While the original impetus for Mr. Mueller’s investigation was the alleged collusion between Russia, or Russians of one sort or another, and the Trump campaign,1 what has come out of the investigation so far does not have anything to do with that question. Obviously, nobody knows what might be coming or will be in the final report, but while we have seen some things involving Russia/Russians, we haven’t seen anything about collusion between Russia/Russians and the Trump campaign.