What’s Going to Happen In Venezuela?

Venezuela is starving.  Literally.  Aid is on its borders, but President Nicholas Maduro is refusing to let it in because the aid has been organized by opposition leader Juan Guaido (and countries supporting him).  Already, at least four people have been killed and hundreds injured, reportedly by Venezuelan security forces, including militia. 

What happens next?  Obviously, nobody knows, but 2019 is the 30th anniversary of two possible outcomes.  The first is Tiananmen Square.  In 1989, people in China were starting to demonstrate for more rights and liberties.  The protests reached a peak in Tiananmen Square in Beijing in early June.  The Army faced off with the protesters.  The Army won because it was willing to shoot the protesters until they disbanded and left.  Deng Xiaoping was willing to put his economic reforms on hold to maintain political power.

The other possible outcome happened later in 1989.  In the fall of 1989, the people of East Germany started to protest.  Marches in Leipzig on Monday night, after prayer meetings at St. Nicholas Church, were growing each week.  Erich Honecker, the General Secretary of the East Germany Communist Party, wanted to respond like the Chinese did.  The situation finally came to a head on Monday, October 9, 1989.  The Army and security forces were alerted, but ultimately, they never ordered to shoot.  In effect, the protesters won, and Erich Honecker was removed from office by the Politburo of the East Germany Communist Party nine days later.  The Wall came down the next month.

So what will happen in Venezuela?  As I said, nobody knows, but Venezuelan security forces are apparently killing protesters.  If that continues, if the Venezuelan Army is willing to shoot Venezuelan people, President Maduro will probably win.  On the other hand, if the Army and other government leaders decide to stand back, the opposition may prevail. 

The most important thing other countries can do to encourage the latter is to stand back themselves.  They can provide moral encouragement and whatever aid can help, but ultimately it is the Venezuelan people who have to free themselves.