Here’s Why Self-Driving Cars May Be a Long Way Off

A column in Wednesday’s Financial Times by Brooke Masters noted:

“Consolidation is sweeping through the self-driving cars sector like the last dance at a high school disco – everyone seems to be grabbing a partner or two for fear of being left out.”¹

Car companies are joining with each other and/or with technology companies in a race to get to the size necessary to compete in the self-driving race.  But I wonder how soon self-driving cars are really going to happen for one reason: lawsuits.

Currently, when there is a car accident, the driver of one car may sue the other driver.  Very seldom, however, is the car manufacturer sued.  Maybe, in an exceptional case, a plaintiff’s lawyer may try to find some way to sue the vehicle manufacturer.  And if the plaintiff(s) are sympathetic enough or have serious enough injuries, there might be a big verdict.

For self-driving cars, however, things will be different.  First, there aren’t any other drivers to sue in an accident.  There is just the car – and the company that made it.  While the level of damages in lawsuits between individual drivers might be manageable for a large car/technology company, it seems likely that, at least after a couple of accidents, some plaintiffs lawyers will start filing big lawsuits, maybe even class action cases, against the car/technology company(ies) whose cars were involved in the accidents.  And if, in the process of looking through the evidence in such a case, the plaintiffs lawyers find even a hint of something that might be viewed as showing a disregard for safety or an attempt to hide evidence, the possible jury verdicts will skyrocket. 

Look at the verdicts against Bayer/Monsanto in the cases involving Roundup pesticide.  Bayer has only lost three cases, but the damages are already in the billions of dollars.  How many accidents, and lost lawsuits like that, would it take to put a GM, or maybe even a Google, at risk?  And even if the lawsuits wouldn’t bankrupt one of these companies, would it be surprising if they decided that the possible gains aren’t worth the risk.  Is it really worth betting your company, or even a substantial part of it, on a product that may make you a lot of money – but could also very easily destroy the company in the process?

In the end, designing self-driving cars that are safe to drive may be easier than making self-driving cars that are safe to sell.
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¹ Brooke Masters, “Self-driving car groups collide with the reality of going it alone,” Financial Times, July 3, 2019.  Behind the FT paywall.