Is This the Afghanistan Bug-Out I Have Been Worried About?

While he was in Afghanistan for Thanksgiving last week, Donald Trump said that peace talks would resume with the Taliban.  But, as normal for President Trump, things about the resumption of talks are a little unclear.  According to The Wall Street Journal, President Trump said:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal – we’ll see if they make a deal.  If they do they do, and if they don’t they don’t.  That’s fine.”

The Washington Post quoted the President as saying:

“The Taliban wants to make a deal and we’re meeting with them and we’re saying it has to be a cease-fire and they didn’t want to do a cease-fire, and now they do want to do a cease-fire.  I believe it’ll probably work out that way.”

And “FP Security Brief” said this on Monday:

“Both the Taliban and the Afghan government appeared caught off guard by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement during a Thanksgiving Day visit to Afghanistan … that the Taliban was ready to agree to a cease-fire deal.  But the insurgent group responded quickly, with a spokesman saying on Friday that they were ‘ready to restart the talks.’¹ …

It’s not yet clear if the renewed discussions will lead to peace.  Key disputes still need to be resolved, including the Taliban’s refusal to talk directly with the Afghan government.  And, contrary to what Trump said last week, there are no signs the Taliban is ready for a cease-fire – a condition has long been a sticking point ….”

In other words, who knows what is going to happen – or what President Trump will agree to.  I would hope that any agreement would include a cease fire and direct talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government.  That seems right to me, but will we hold out for those provisions if the Taliban refuses and President Trump wants to get out?

I have written before about what I saw as the coming bug-out in Afghanistan, and it hasn’t happened – yet.²  Barack Obama tried to get out, but, ultimately, facts on the ground (persistent little things that they are) stopped him.  It is possible that President Trump won’t let facts, or obligations (whether legal or moral), stand in the way of his bugging out if he wants to.

Two questions:  First, what will Democrats do if President Trump decides to leave Afghanistan without a proper agreement, like he did with the Kurds in Syria?³  Will they care about the Afghans, like they claimed to care about the Kurds?⁴   

Second, what the Republicans will do?  If President Trump does a deal that abandons the Afghans, will they criticize the agreement, like they would if a Democrat did it (and like some of they did with the Kurds)?  Who knows.

Mostly, I’m just worried for the Afghans, especially those who helped us and went out on the limb for us.⁵  We abandoned a lot of Iraqis when we pulled out of Iraq in 2011.⁶  I don’t have a lot of confidence that we won’t do the same in Afghanistan.
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¹ Unless this is all part of a “diplomatic dance” agreed to by the parties. 
² See, among others, here and here.
³ After all, the Afghans were not at Normandy, either.
⁴ My best (cynical) guess is that their outrage vis-à-vis the Kurds was mainly because President Trump doing it, as opposed to President Obama.
⁵ Not to mention what will happen to the women.
⁶ Actually, we have done it in a lot of places to a lot of people.