Illinois and Stein’s Law

Herbert Stein, economist and Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Presidents Nixon and Ford, is probably best known by many people today as the father of Ben Stein (of “Ferris Buehler's Day Off” and “Win Ben Stein’s Money” fame).  But Herb Stein is also known for “Stein’s Law”: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

Which is actually a lead-in to Illinois’s budget and unfunded pension liability mess.  Unless you believe that Illinois’s unfunded pension debt will never be a problem, because there will always be enough money in the fund to make current pension payments,¹ you would say that the present situation cannot go on forever; i.e., Illinois cannot continue to not properly fund its pension obligations.  But looking at the people we have in Springfield, you would despair of that ever happening.

Which is where Stein’s Law comes in.  If you believe that Illinois’s fiscal mess cannot go on forever, then Stein’s law reassures you: If it can’t go on forever, it will, at some point and in some way, stop.  We may not be able to imagine how it will stop.  We may not like how it stops or what happens when it does stop.  But Stein’s Law assures us it will stop.²  Which is a form of reassurance, I guess.
---------
¹ I addressed this idea in this post: “Will Illinois Ever Really Deal With Its Unfunded Pension Liability?”  One might compare this idea to Road Runner cartoons where, in chasing the Road runner, Wile E. Coyote runs off a cliff.  He keeps going and it’s not a problem – until he looks down.
² Under Stein’s Law, even Michael Madigan’s time as Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives will, at some time, stop.  Which may ultimately be connected with solving the pension funding problem, since solving the pension problem will require negotiations among people who don’t agree with each other and may even not like each other.  And negotiations like this don’t seem to be something that Speaker Madigan does all that well.  See, for example, this valedictory article on Senate President John Cullerton’s upcoming resignation.  While Senator Cullerton’s effort to break the budget impasse failed, at least he tried.  Speaker Madigan apparently felt it was better to not try.