Leaving Afghanistan – This Time It’s Probably for Real

Last weekend, negotiators for the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement which, if implemented, will result in some US forces leaving Afghanistan this year and the rest next year.  I had a few comments, but instead of writing a long post on the agreement and whether it is good or not, etc., I’m just going to list those comments:

1. While some reports called this a “peace agreement,” peace seems unlikely.  The only way there is going to be “peace,” in the sense of no fighting, is if the Taliban wins – and that would not be a peace worth the name.

2. While Donald Trump said that “[i]f bad things happen, we’ll go back” with military firepower, I doubt we will.  I suppose it is possible.  You can never tell with President Trump.  But he wants to leave Afghanistan.  In 2016, he said that he would get us out of our endless wars, including, maybe particularly, Afghanistan.  The fact that we have not left before now probably says something about the arguments President Trump’s national security advisers have made for staying (more on that below).  But if we are going to get out before the election, we have to start now.  And whatever else you can say about President Trump, he does seem to try to keep his campaign promises.¹  So, I don’t see him going back in, almost no matter what the Taliban does (unless the Taliban are really stupid).  Especially since the Democratic candidate would throw President Trump’s promise in his face if we aren’t, by November, at least on a schedule to leave.

3. The media talks about Afghanistan being out “longest” war.  Well, the Cold War was a lot longer.  Also, even if Afghanistan lasted longer than Korea or Vietnam, we lost 2,200 service members in Afghanistan.  That is a lot of lives, but it’s not 36,000 (Korea) or 58,000 (Vietnam).  Years are one thing; lives are another – and a lot more important.  Plus, we’re still in Korea.

4. As I said in point two above, the fact President Trump has not already pulled our troops out of Afghanistan probably shows how his national security people felt about us leaving.  A relatively small presence, with a reasonably low number of deaths each year, may have looked like a good price for an insurance policy against what might happen if we leave.  The Taliban may promise they won’t allow people to attack the United States from Afghanistan if we leave, but why should we believe them?  And what can we do after we’re gone?

5. Finally, there is the question of the Afghans themselves.  The fact the Afghan government is not keen on the agreement may say something about what they think of it.  Of course, some people will say it is just the corrupt elites running Afghanistan who don’t want us to go.  They want us to stay so they can continue their graft, etc.

     But there are a number of regular Afghans are worried about us leaving us, too.  I imagine a lot of Afghan women don’t want the Taliban taking over, given what they have done in the past.  Not to mention Afghans of any gender who are not religious extremists and/or who believe people should be able to live and let live.

     In addition, during our time in Afghanistan, we made a lot of promises to a number of Afghans.  They worked for us or with us, and they went out on a limb to do so.  What is going to happen to them when we leave?  Even if it’s true that the Afghan government is corrupt and doesn’t deserve our support, these individual Afghans do.  We made promises to them.  We have an obligation to them.  If we can’t protect them in Afghanistan, we may need to take them with us, if that is what they want.  President Trump isn’t going to like hearing that.  The Democratic candidate for president won’t like it, either.  But we have an obligation to those people.  Too often in the past, we have just left places and forgotten our promises to the people who helped us.²  We left and we didn’t care.  All too often, it has been the American way.  Unfortunately, I wouldn’t be surprised if we do the same thing in Afghanistan.
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¹ I have noticed that many of the things President Trump does that I don’t like are promises he made during the campaign.  And he is doing them.  That is somewhat unusual in politicians, so we’re not always ready for it.
² It was the Kurds last year, but it has been a lot more than the Kurds over the years.  See here , and here, among others.