Where Are the Syrian Refugees Going to Go?

While Joe Biden’s comeback on Super Tuesday and Covid-19 (aka Coronavirus) take up all of the available media space in the United States,¹ a serious problem is developing in Syria/Turkey/Greece.  As Syria, with Russia’s help, tries to regain the territory around Idlib (the last bit of Syria that the Syrian government doesn’t control), Syrians who have been displaced by the civil war in Syria and who have taken refuge in Idlib province have no place to go except Turkey.  But Turkey already has upwards of four million Syrian refugees, and they don’t want any more. 

I realize that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Turkish government are not nice people and that democracy/freedom is slowly disappearing in Turkey, but it’s hard not to appreciate, at least to some extent, Turkey’s position. Turkey already has millions of Syrian refugees.  How many more are they supposed to take?  In 2016, after the flood of Middle Eastern and other refugees into Europe, Turkey and the EU entered into an agreement whereby Turkey would limit the number of irregular immigrants and asylum seekers going into Greece and the EU would provide funding to care for the refugees.  In other words, the EU has been paying (bribing-?) Turkey to keep Syrian refugees in Turkey, instead of allowing them to pass through to Europe.

But now, because the attacks on Idlib are threatening to push even more Syrian refugees into Turkey, it looks like something is about to break.  President Erdogan has said that the EU is not taking its fair share of refugees (which it probably isn’t), so he is opening Turkey’s border with Greece.²  In response, Greece has increased its military presence along its border with Turkey, as well as suspending asylum-seeker registrations for a month, actions with the EU supports (even though suspension of asylum-seeker registrations apparently violates international treaties).

This is not an uncommon situation.  Countries in the West make high-minded statements about the rights of refugees and how international law protects them, but when it comes to where refugees actually wind up, it is usually a neighboring country which is just as poor as the country the refugees come from.  Sometimes the United Nations, etc., will help pay the costs of caring for the refugees, but when it comes to where the refugees are housed and who has to deal with them, it’s not rich western countries.  It’s other poor countries in the area.

In the Greece/Turkey/Syria situation, the EU may ultimately wind up paying Turkey more money, one way or the other, to keep the refugees in Turkey, though the EU won’t want to look like it is bribing Turkey (even if that is what it is doing).  To this point, it is my understanding that the EU has funneled its payments to third parties to take care of the refugees.³  It now appears Turkey wants at least some of that money to be paid directly to it.³  While the EU understandably worries whether money paid directly to Turkey would actually go to take care of the refugees, the EU also doesn’t want more refugees.  The ultimate resolution may depend on what it is more important to the EU: humanitarian concerns or keeping refugees out.

It’s something to keep in mind when countries make statements of great principle in difficult situations: are they on the front lines or are they just saying nice things that other countries have to actually do?
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¹ It seems like two big stories is pretty much the American public can handle at one time.
² Michael Peel and Kerin Hope, “Cyprus attacks Ankara’s refugee stance,” Financial Times, March 4, 2020.
³ Mehreen Khan and Sam Fleming, "Migration: Brussels' pact with Turkey on verge on collapse," Financial Times, March 3, 2020.
UPDATE (3/5/20 3:25 pm): Added footnote 3.