The View from Right Field

Bailouts, Turnabouts, Fair Play – And a Progressive State Income Tax

In today’s Chicago Tribune, Eric Zorn supports Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker’s argument that Illinois should get a bail out from the federal government because, in Governor Pritzker’s words, “we pay more in federal taxes in Illinois than we get back from the federal government.”  Mr. Zorn acknowledges that federal spending is affected by things like higher poverty rates in other states, but eventually he comes back to the view that other states should bail out Illinois “[b]ecause we’ve been bailing them out for years.”

I wonder, though, why we should be looking at this on the basis of state boundaries.  Perhaps we should look at it on a county basis.  Maybe Cook County should get back from the federal government what it pays in. 

Preparing for the “Next” #Coronavirus – Whatever It Is. But Will We?

I was originally going to post about a book that Andrew Krepinevich wrote in 2009: 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century.  Chapter 3 of the book was entitled “Pandemic.”  While the cause of the pandemic in Mr. Krepinevich’s book was a variation on influenza, instead of a coronavirus, many of the effects were eerily the same:

“The summer movie season has been washed away by the government’s ban on public gatherings.  Meanwhile, baseball … is experiencing a ‘silent season.’  Major league baseball tried for a few days to play televised games in empty stadiums, then cancelled its schedule when several players came down with pandemic influenza ….”¹

“In many parts of the country hospitals are collapsing under the strain, as ever greater numbers of Americans succumb to the virus.”²

“[D]eveloping a vaccine to deal with a novel strain of influenza can take nearly a year.”³

Lots of People Are Working from Home. Why Not Congress?

Business people all over the country are working from home.  With phone calls, email, Zoom meetings, etc., business is being done from Tallahassee to Wenatchee, Austin to Boston.  So why is Congress shut down?  Leaders are passing bills by unanimous consent with just a few members on the floor (and nobody objecting).  What I don’t understand is why Congress can’t work electronically.  The Supreme Court is hearing arguments by phone.  Why can’t Congress do something like that?

Off-site voting may not be allowed under the current rules of the House and Senate, but if that’s so, they need to get together and change the rules – and then go home, if they want to,¹ and start working.  If off-site voting is not be something you want to do forever, then change the rules to allow it for six months, with the old rules coming back into force automatically at the end of the six-month period. 

#Cubs Convention Photos of Cubs Greats: Ferguson Jenkins

Fergie is one of the players that I have the most pictures of.  Here is a picture from the 1994 Convention:

Leaders Taking a Pay Cut Like the People They Lead. That’s Leadership.

I realize I write a lot about New Zealand, but when they get things right, why not.  Here’s another thing the leaders in New Zealand got right.  Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that she and the ministers in her government would take a 20% pay cut for the next six months in recognition of "New Zealanders who are reliant on wage subsidies, taking pay cuts and losing their jobs as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic."  Simon Bridges, the leader of the opposition National Party, said he would do the same.

It's not like these pay cuts are going to save lots of money for the government or pay for the extra spending the New Zealand government is doing.  Rather, it is a matter of leaders showing solidarity with the people: people who have lost jobs, have had their hours cut, or are just having a hard time during the pandemic.

It’s empathy.  It’s caring.  It’s not politics as usual.  I wish we could have some of that here.

The Fed Is Acting as Central Banker for the World. Why Isn’t President Trump Complaining?

At the end of March, the Federal Reserve announced it was establishing a temporary lending facility under which foreign central banks could borrow dollars by giving the Fed their Treasury securities.  Such repurchase agreements, or repos, allow borrowers to temporarily exchange Treasury securities for dollars.  By entering into a repo agreement, foreign central bank don‘t have to sell their Treasury securities in unstable markets in order to get dollars they need for transactions. 

This facility is in addition to other programs the Fed has already set up to lend dollars to fourteen other central banks in Europe, Canada, Mexico, Japan, Brazil, and Australia.

What’s With WHO? WHO’s With China?

No, this is not some 2020 version of Abbott and Costello.  It’s a question about how the World Health Organization, and China, are doing vis-à-vis the Covid-19 pandemic.  The answer is not good – or at least not nearly as good as they should be.¹  WHO ignored a report from Taiwan on December 31 that about person-to-person transmission of Covid-19 in Wuhan.²  WHO ignored the report because Beijing won’t allow WHO to include or listen to Taiwan.  When President Trump imposed a partial travel ban on travel to China on January 31, WHO was saying that travel bans were a bad idea.  WHO didn’t declare Covid-19 a pandemic until March 11, which was absurdly late.

So, what do we do with WHO – and more importantly China?  President Trump is delaying U.S. contributions to WHO.³  I understand the frustration, but is that what we should be doing now?  Is WHO the real problem or is it China?  If it is China, what do we do about them? 

For some good thoughts on the latter, look at these comments by former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, now a Fellow at the Hoover Institution:

As We Start to Reopen the Economy, We Must Be More Careful and More Responsible

Dr. Scott Gottlieb here and Megan McArdle here talk about what we need to have to be able to reopen the economy.  The main point from both of them is that reopening isn’t going to happen as soon as one would hope, as fast as one would hope, or as broadly as one would hope (“one” being, among others, Donald Trump).  The key to re-opening successfully, i.e., without a resurgence of the virus, is to do it slowly and carefully. 

The same rules on reopening aren’t going to be able to apply to all areas of the country at the same time because different areas are experiencing the virus differently.  Some things will be able to open faster in some areas.  Some businesses will need to remain closed in other areas.  Sheltering at home may need to be around longer in some places than others.  What we can do, as individuals, is accept these differences.  They may not seem fair, but Covid-19 isn’t fair.  What we need to remember is that the enemy isn’t each other; it’s the virus.  While we would like to open all areas right away, we can’t.  It’s not safe.  So, until we can open all areas safely, all we can do is to open those areas that can be safely opened.

Jim Frey, RIP.

The first Cubs manager in my lifetime to win any championship.  His 1986 baseball card:

Glenn Beckert, RIP. Some More Thoughts.

I posted some photos of Glenn from Cubs Conventions yesterday.  Today, I wanted to add a few thoughts.  Actually, there are lots of things I could write about Glenn, but I thought I would just mention three.  First, at a Convention back in the 1990s, when he was working as a trader on one of the various exchanges in Chicago, I said to him that it must be hard to be a trader.  He said no, facing Sandy Koufax was harder.

At another Convention, one of the earlier ones [see Update], Jennie, Ross, and I were walking out of the Hilton, when all of a sudden I did a double take.  Glenn Beckert was just sitting there in a big leather chair, watching people walk by.   He chuckled at my double take, but then signed autographs for us.