No, this is not some 2020 version of Abbott and Costello. It’s a question about how the World Health Organization, and China, are doing vis-à-vis the Covid-19 pandemic. The answer is not good – or at least not nearly as good as they should be.1 WHO ignored a report from Taiwan on December 31 that about person-to-person transmission of Covid-19 in Wuhan.2 WHO ignored the report because Beijing won’t allow WHO to include or listen to Taiwan. When President Trump imposed a partial travel ban on travel to China on January 31, WHO was saying that travel bans were a bad idea. WHO didn’t declare Covid-19 a pandemic until March 11, which was absurdly late.
So, what do we do with WHO – and more importantly China? President Trump is delaying U.S. contributions to WHO.3 I understand the frustration, but is that what we should be doing now? Is WHO the real problem or is it China? If it is China, what do we do about them?
For some good thoughts on the latter, look at these comments by former Secretary of State and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice, now a Fellow at the Hoover Institution:
“One of the unfortunate similarities [between Covid-19 and the 2003 SARS outbreak] is it is hard to get information out of China. With the SARS outbreak, we knew something had happened. it was very hard to get answers from China about what had happened, and that is, unfortunately, a recurring pattern this time around. It is probably the most troubling aspect of this crisis.
It is kind of in the nature of the Chinese system -- an authoritarian system where control of information is power, control of the narrative is power, so we shouldn't be surprised that when this outbreak happened in Wuhan, they silenced the young physicians and medical students who were trying to sound the alarm. …
[T]he Chinese did what authoritarians do, they silenced those who were trying to sound the alarm, and they wanted time to create the narrative that would be blessed by the Communist Party of China, which means it probably had to go to Beijing before you could say anything. …
There is a public part of [of a response to China] and a private part.
This is the public part, over the next months is to let it be known that China responded in the way that it did. Or, didn't respond, I should say. …
We have to have a really honest assessment about where this started, how it started, when it started, when the Communist Party knew, and why they didn't get on it, that's the public part.
The private part is: You have to go to the Chinese and say, ‘You can't keep doing this.’
You have to be a more responsible partner, a more responsible power, given your weight now in the international system. You're not just some little developing country that when something happens it doesn't have an impact. …
[QUESTION: Is jawboning enough …? Or do you have to couple it with sanctions or tariffs or limiting trade?]
I would certainly try the persuasion route first because I think if you keep the focus on how this started, and China's role in that, they will be embarrassed by that. If you let them shift the narrative to all they've done sending out PPE [personal protection equipment], you're probably not going to make progress.
I would go to the U.N. Security Council and I would call a meeting. They'll try to veto anything that comes out of it. But I'd call a meeting and say the U.S. is going to share the information, maybe this is where we can bring the Europeans and others along, we're going to share the information on how this started.
I would try that campaign first because … I don't think we want to shock the system more with more sanctions and more trade wars while the system is trying to recover. So I'd certainly try that method first, let's call it ‘Calling Names’ and send a message that what they did is unacceptable.”
This is, obviously, a great approach, but it is also an approach that President Trump can’t do. One, he’s already blown any credibility he might have to get other countries to work with the U.S. in such an approach. Why would anybody trust him to follow through on this and not turn around and change his mind? Plus, the public part of what former Secretary Rice is suggesting requires a patient, stepped approach. Following a plan over an extended period of time. I don’t see President Trump having the patience, maybe even self-control, to do that.
And on the private part? Is anything private with President Trump? In 2016, I wrote about how Richard Nixon handled evidence of the construction of a Russian nuclear submarine base in Cuba in 1970. When Richard Nixon got the reports, he didn’t go to the press or make a big speech. Instead, he proceeded quietly and privately, allowing the Soviets to abandon the sub base without a big public deal being made over it. As President Nixon said in his Memoirs, “The Soviets had decided to take advantage of the maneuverability a low profile afforded.”4 I can’t see President Trump being able to do something like this without bragging and Tweeting about it.
Which is sad because China, and WHO, do need to be held to account. It’s just that President Trump probably isn’t the person to do it.
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1 The fact that Donald Trump is doing a terrible job does not mean there are not other people and organizations doing bad jobs. There can be more than one person/group doing a terrible job. It’s not just President Trump; it’s not just China (PRC, not ROC); it’s not just WHO. There are a lot of people/governments/groups doing a bad job, if not worse.
2 "Taiwan says WHO failed to act on coronavirus transmission warning," Financial Times, March 19, 2020.
3 What does it say that WHO’s list of top voluntary contributors doesn’t include China, but does include the Gates Foundation, South Korea, and even New Zealand, a country with a population of 0.35% of China’s?
4 Richard Nixon, The Memoirs of Richard Nixon (1978), p. 488-89.
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