The View from Right Field

“How Do You Solve a Problem Like Korea” (to tune of “Maria” from “The Sound of Music”)

Except, of course, I am referring just to North Korea, not all of Korea; and except that, while North Korea is a problem, it is not Maria.  There was a solution for Maria: sending her to be governess at Captain von Trapp’s house.  As for North Korea, consider the situation.

1.  North Korea is an economic disaster. Earlier this month, Kim Jong Un compared the country’s worsening economic situation to the 1990s famine that resulted in hundreds of thousands of deaths. Floods last summer and US sanctions contributed to the problems, as has North Korea’s closing of its borders with the world, including even China, because of Covid-19.  But mostly, it’s the system, both economic and dictatorial.  Several weeks ago, there was a picture of people from the Russian embassy using a handcar to leave the country.

Spending Lots; Doing a Little Good

Nancy Pelosi famously¹ said of Obamacare that you had to pass it to see what was in it.  It appears that was true of Joe Biden’s first big Covid relief bill, too.  In January, I said this about President Biden’s proposed plan in a post entitled “Covid-19 Relief Ought to Be More Than Just Throwing Money Around Randomly”:

“A properly-targeted pandemic relief program wouldn’t waste money by giving it to people who don’t need help.  If we target the help where it is needed, there will be more money for the people who actually need help.  It’s not a matter of cutting costs; it’s a matter of having enough money to help those who really need it.”

Retaking Congress – Or Not

Karl Rove wrote in Thursday’s Wall Street Journal about how the left may be damaging the Democrats’ chances of keeping control of Congress in November, 2022.  While Mr. Rove made some good points about how the “left-wing loonies” could hurt the Democrats, he doesn’t mention what the “right-wing crazies” could do to the Republicans. 

After all, Democrats control the Senate because of Donald Trump.  Instead of going to Georgia and urging Republicans and independents to vote for Republicans David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler, so the Democrats wouldn’t control the Senate, former President Trump spent his time in Georgia doing his normal “it’s all about me” thing, complaining about how the election was stolen from him and the Republican governor and secretary of state in Georgia didn’t care.  Not surprisingly, turnout in Republican areas in the special senate run-off election went down; why vote, if the election will get stolen and your vote won’t count.  And so, Mitch McConnell is Senate Minority Leader, instead of Senate Majority Leader.  If President Trump had cared more about the cause than himself, that might not have happened.

Cutting Carbon Now

New York is shutting down the Indian Point nuclear power plant, which in the past has supplied upwards of 25% of the electricity for New York City and Westchester County.  So where is the electricity going to come from, especially since New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has blocked the construction of pipelines that would bring natural gas to New York City?  Governor Cuomo has proposed building 9,000 megawatts of offshore wind power and a 250-mile transmission line from upstate New York to bring in renewable energy, but they aren’t ready yet - obviously.  Also, given the opposition there will be to such proposals, who knows when they will be built, if ever.  After all, the Biden administration has already withdrawn proposals for offshore wind power developments off certain parts of Long Island because ….  Well, there are always good reasons for not building such things in one’s own backyard.  (Here.)

But, don’t worry about power blackouts in New York because, even if there is a shortage of natural gas, gas-powered plants can switch to oil.  Huh?  We’re trying to cut carbon emissions, so the solution is to: (i) shut down an existing nuclear plant, which supplies, by definition, at least once it is built, carbon-free power; (ii) block natural gas pipelines because natural gas emits carbon and we want to be carbon-zero; and (iii) use oil, the most carbon-intensive of all three, as the back-up power source until we can get wind farms and transmission lines for renewable energy built.

Models, Calculators, and Certainty

Last weekend, The Wall Street Journal had an interview with Steven Koonin, who was chief scientist for the Energy Department under Barack Obama.  In the course of the interview, Dr. Koonin said some things about models and how they are used that resonated with me (probably because I have some of the same concerns.

Dr. Koonin said, of younger scientists today: “They have grown up with the models.  They don’t have the kind of mathematical or physical intuition you get when you have to do things by pencil and paper.”

Why Shouldn’t We Take Care of Ourselves Instead of the World?

[See Note below]

With Russia massing tens of thousands of troops on Ukraine’s border and China increasing its aggressive behavior against Taiwan, maybe now is a good time to consider what the purpose of U.S. foreign policy should be and what our national interests are in connection with either or both of those situations.  Actually, the real question is what our national interests are in general. 

We hear talk about supporting a rules-based international order.  But is that really what we should be doing?  Is it our goal to support other countries or do we need to worry about ourselves?  Some would say that we have lots of problems in the United States; there are lots of things we need to do for our people.  The Biden administration is proposing spending trillions of dollars on important domestic priorities.  Given all of this, do we really have the money – or the time or energy – to deal with Ukraine or Taiwan – or the Uighurs or Alexei Navalny?     

Leaving Afghanistan

I have predicted several times that we would be leaving Afghanistan.  It now looks like this will happen and we will be gone by September 11, 2021.  Five comments:

First, I’m not surprised.  Joe Biden was always going to leave.  And he will get it done because his people want to leave, too,¹ and because we are putting no conditions on what the Taliban, etc., have to done before we leave.

Cubs: The First Game of the Second 100 – 45 Years Ago Yesterday

I missed the anniversary of the “First Game of the Second 100”; i.e., the 1976 home opener for the Chicago Cubs in 1976.  The Cubs started in the National League in 1876 (and they are the only team from the start who is still in the same town), so the home opener in 1976 was the first home game in the second 100 years.  The anniversary was yesterday: April 13.  It was my second Opening Day (the first was the prior year, which, in true Chicago fashion, was postponed two days because of snow) and Susan’s first.  I made a mistake and didn’t buy tickets ahead of time, but we got in because they sold 8,000+ standing room tickets.  So we stood.  But at least it was good weather.  In the 60s.

It was an even better game.  As part of the celebration, a granddaughter of Cap Anson threw out a first pitch.  (Obviously, that wouldn’t happen today.)  Ernie was there, too.  Jerry Morales hit two-run homers in the first and the sixth (Bill Madlock was on base ahead of him each time).  The Mets got three runs in the fourth to chase Rick Reuschel, but brother Paul came in the stop the damage.  The stupid Mets tied the score on a home run in the eighth.

Baseball Doesn’t Need to be Shorter; It Needs to be Brisker

Baseball games are too long, which is something everybody knows.  Except, it’s not really true.  Baseball games aren’t too long; they’re too slow.  The great baseball writer, Roger Angell explained it in an interview in The Wall Street Journal last September on his 100th birthday.  Mr. Angell was discussing the changes they instituted last year because of the pandemic:

“I can understand this business of putting a batter on second base, but it goes against every baseball instinct that I have, because the heart of the game is that you have to earn every base, and suddenly that’s been abrogated.  Seven inning games, I guess I understand, but seven is a very different game than nine.”

The US Economy Is On a Path To Do Fine – As Long As

Per an article in yesterday’s Financial Times¹:

“Most advanced countries will emerge from the coronavirus crisis with little lasting damage, thanks to relatively rapid rollout of vaccines and a willingness to increase sharply spending and borrowing, according to the I[nternational] M[onetary] [F]und. …

The fund was bullish about prospects of a rapid US recovery without inflationary pressures.  [IMF chief economist Gita] Gopinath said: ‘The US is really the only large economy whose {economic output} for 2022 is projected to exceed what it would have been in the absence of this pandemic.’”