The End State in Afghanistan

Lt. General H.R. McMaster (ret.) and Bradley Bowman wrote in today’s Wall Street Journal about “How to Avert Disaster in Afghanistan” (July 27), but I fear it may be too late.  Afghanistan is beginning to look like South Vietnam in 1975.  When the North Vietnamese attacked in 1975, South Vietnam couldn’t defend all of its territory because of U.S. aid cutbacks.  So President Thieu tried to withdraw to what could be defended.  But once the retreat started, it developed a momentum of its own.

This may be occurring in Afghanistan now.  The Taliban probably isn’t as strong as the North Vietnamese, but once people lose faith in their government to protect them, as happened in South Vietnam and appears to be happening in Afghanistan, it is hard to get it back.

Which is also the problem with Messrs. McMaster and Bowman’s suggestions.  Why would anybody believe us if we said we were going to stay and help?  Barack Obama wanted to leave Afghanistan, though ultimately he deferred to facts on the ground.  Donald Trump wanted to leave, but he couldn’t because he was incompetent at governing.  Now, with Joe Biden, the United States is leaving. 

At this point, anybody in Afghanistan who relies on the U.S. for help is foolish.  Afghans have to figure out for themselves how to survive the coming Taliban theocracy.  And people around the world have another example of the risk of relying on promises of the United States.
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UPDATE (8/2/21 10:40 pm): A lightly edited version of this post was published in the “Letters to the Editor” in The Wall Street Journal.  See here.