There were, I think, three high points of the season for the 2021 Cubs. The first was their 19-8 record in May (the best in the NL). The second was the Davies-Tepera-Chafin-Kimbrel combined no-hitter against the Dodgers on June 24. Even with a not-so-stellar June, the Cubs were still tied for first place in the NL Central after that win. But then, disaster hit, in the form of an 11-game losing streak, ultimately resulting in the July 29-30 trade-o-rama. Which indirectly led to the third high point of the season: The seven-game winning streak by the “New Look” Cubs from August 31 to September 6: two against the Twins, a four-game sweep of the Pirates, and one against the Reds. Only the Reds were above .500, but seven straight is seven straight, and it was fun to see the guys who have never had a chance in the majors, get a chance to play – and win – at least for a while.1
But now that the season is over, it’s time to look to 2022. President of Baseball Operations Jed Hoyer says the Cubs will be “really active” in the free agent market “in a thoughtful and intelligent way,” whatever that means. And however much it will help.
Take a look at the projected line-up for next year. Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal give you hope at second and short – if they play up to expectations and if Nico can figure out how to avoid the muscle strains he had this year. Patrick Wisdom at third base had a good couple of months, but the league figured out his weak spots and now he has a batting average in the low .230s. Frank Schwindel didn’t come up until July 30. He has been great, but you have to ask what is going to happen when the league figures out his weak spots, too. Will he be able to adjust (as a friend asked) or will this just be his time in the sun?
In the outfield, Happ and Heyward both need to improve, but we’ve said that for a while. Is Rafael Ortega really a centerfielder on a top-notch team? Catching is pretty solid, but even Willson Contreras needs to get back to 2019 levels.
The pitching, especially starting pitching, could be the weakest part of the team. How many starters do we have? Is it going to be “Hendricks, Mills, and three days of rain”? Even Kyle had a down year, but he should recover. Plus Millsie needs to be get more consistent. And what is there after them? Alzolay, Steele, and Thompson? In other words, hopes and a lot of ifs.2 Which doesn’t even get to the bullpen.
Is adding two or three mid-level free agents really going to fill those gaps? You could sign three free agent starters and still not have enough pitching, while not having dealt with any of the other holes. And that assumes the free agents turn out okay, which they often don’t. For every John Lester or Ben Zobrist, there is a Jason Heyward and an Edwin Jackson.
Looking at 2022, you have a lot of hopes and ifs. Hope for Hoerner and Madigral. If Happ and Heyward get better. If we sign a third baseman. Hope that Schwindel continues to do well. If we sign some free agent,s who we hope will work out. And if/hope Brennen Davis comes up and plays great.
In other words, a team of hopes and ifs. The problem is that I have gone into a lot of off-seasons (and next seasons) with teams like that, and the number of times they have worked out is pretty small.
In any case, I doubt anything much will happen until the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is signed. The current agreement expires December 1, 2021. I don’t see any kind of significant moves, especially by the Cubs, until after an agreement is reached. If there is any delay in that, it could be a long and quiet off-season.
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1 The other baseball highlight was when UVa, the University of Virginia, won its super regional and made it to Omaha for the College World Series.
2 Even Jed Hoyer said Alzolay, Steele, and Thompson (sounds like a law firm) were just going to be a part of next year’s team, not a part of the starting rotation; i.e., they might just be relievers, who aren’t that hard to find.
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