Russia, Ukraine, and Why Is Vladimir Putin Doing All This?

Last week, Russia published another set of demands regarding United States and NATO activities in eastern Europe.  The new “red lines” go beyond those that Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously set.  Among the demands are: (i) neither Ukraine or any more former Soviet states may join NATO; (ii) United States and NATO forces may not be based in any former Soviet country (such as Poland or the Baltic states) and military activity in those countries must cease and (iii) the U.S. and Russia must not base any nuclear weapons outside their own territory.¹

We don’t know how strict these red lines are.  Barack Obama weakened the meaning of “red line,” at least for the U.S., when he failed to follow through on his own red line on Syrian use of chemical weapons against its own people.  We don’t know how firm President Putin will be with his red lines.

One would think that Vladimir Putin can do pretty much whatever he wants.  Yes and no.  He is an authoritarian, but public opinion matters some, even for authoritarians and even in Russia. 

Which gets to my concern: With President Putin having publicly established these red lines, at some point he needs to be able to show the Russian people either that he has enforced his red lines or that he has gotten some big trade-off for not following through on them.  In other words, he needs to be able to show the Russian people that he, and Russia, has won.  This may be especially important given how bad the domestic situation is in Russia.  President Putin may need to get public support through foreign affairs. 

Which leaves me with this: I don’t know why President Putin is doing what he is doing.  All I know what he is doing.  And the worry has to be that, by setting these red lines, President Putin may be boxing himself in² and, when/if U.S. and NATO cross his red lines, which they will do unless they decide to follow the example of Neville Chamberlain at Munich in 1938, he may find himself forced to take reckless risks just to keep some level of public support. 

The possibilities in such a situation for mistakes, miscalculations, or even honest misunderstandings are huge.  The costs could be even larger. 

As I said, I don’t know why President Putin is doing what he is doing, but he is playing a dangerous game, and it scares me.
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¹ See Max Seddon, Henry Foy, and Aime Williams, “Putin sets ‘red lines’ for US and Nato,” Financial Times, December 18, 2021; “Vladimir Putin Names His Price,” The Wall Street Journal, December 18, 2021; Foreign Policy Morning Brief, December 20, 2021.
² One interesting thought: Is Putin boxing himself in on purpose?  By making it harder for himself to retreat, is he trying to make it less likely that the West will push him to do so?  Who knows, but it does show the danger in whatever he is doing.