Ukraine. What’s Next?

I was glad to see that the United States and NATO did not give in to Russia on Ukraine in talks last week.  That was good – and important.  But we need to do more than just avoid ill-advised concessions.  We need to help Ukraine defend itself. 

There has been discussion as to what we would do if Russia attacks Ukraine.  I have a better idea: Instead of talking about the things we will and won’t do if Russia invades,¹ let’s start doing things now – so an invasion doesn’t happen.  First, let’s get lots more weapons to Ukraine.  Germany has objected to NATO providing certain weapons to Ukraine because it might provoke Russia.  Huh?  Russia has invaded Ukraine, annexed part of its territory, and now massed 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border, and Ukraine might provoke Russia?  If Germany stops NATO from providing weapons, let’s do it ourselves. 

This is one area where the Trump administration was better than the Obama administration.  The Obama administration would not provide things like anti-tank weapons to Ukraine; they worried about provoking Russia.  (See above.)  Trump administration delivered those kinds of weapons.  We need to continue to do things like this.  I understand that Ukraine’s government and system are not perfect, but they’re better than the alternative, and they’re not going to get better if Russia invades.

One thing I have never fully understood is the idea that we will provide/sell defensive weapons but not offensive weapons.  What is a defensive weapon?  One that will only shoot if it has been shot at?  Weapons are offensive or defensive less on what they do and more on how they are used.  For example, in North Africa in World War II, German general Erwin Rommel used 88mm anti-aircraft flak guns to take out British tanks.

One of the problems in getting NATO, or at least certain members of NATO, to agree to provide weapons to Ukraine is that they are so dependent on Russian supplies of natural gas.  Germany, for example, has almost deliberately made itself more dependent on Russian natural gas.  That might be understandable if Germany was replacing brown coal with Russian natural gas.  That would be good for the environment.  But Germany is shutting down nuclear power plants, which still have useful life, and substituting Russian natural gas.  Separate and apart from whether nuclear power is good for the future, what this has done for the present is to make Germany even more dependent on Russian natural gas.  It is hard to see how this doesn’t affect what a country can do from a foreign policy point of view. 

Ultimately, as I said above, if we cannot get agreement from all of NATO to provide help to Ukraine, we need to do it ourselves.  We should try to get agreement, but we can’t let one or two holdouts prevent us from doing what needs to be done.  The best way to respond to a Russian invasion of Ukraine is to provide Ukraine enough weapons so that it doesn’t happen.
----------
¹ The Biden administration has said we won’t send troops.  We’ll just impose even more sanctions.  Given European dependence on Russian gas (see the fifth paragraph), who knows what kind of sanctions could be agreed to.