The View from Right Field

Ukraine and the Brittleness of Autocracy, the Suddenness of Change

On January 24, I wrote a post I titled “Illinois in 2021 Reminds Us of the Suddenness of Change and the Brittleness of Autocracy.”  The post had two main points.  The first was: “[T]he suddenness of change: the unexpected never happens – until it does.  Things seem like they will never change – until they do.”  The second was: “Authoritarian regimes are often a lot more brittle than they seem.  They look strong, and they look like they are going to last for a long time.  Until all of a sudden, something happens.”

With respect to the second point, I talked about East Germany and Czechoslovakia in 1989.  I could have also talked about Argentina in 1982.  On April 2, 1982, the Argentine dictatorship under General Galtiera invaded and seized the Falklands from the United Kingdom.  I doubt they understood their opponent in British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.  On April 5, a British task force set sail.  On May 1, British forces landed in the Falklands (8,000 miles from Britain).  On June 14, Argentine forces surrendered.  In Argentina, the Galtiera dictatorship collapsed, and a democratic government was elected in 1983.  In other words, the brittleness of authoritarian regimes and the suddenness of change. 

Former National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (ret.) talked about the former on “Face the Nation” today (see beginning at 3:10):

Donald Trump Praises Vladimir Putin – As Putin Invades Ukraine

One would like to think that Donald Trump’s praise of Russian President Vladimir Putin at the very moment Russia is invading Ukraine would be enough to finally put enough Republicans off former President Trump, but I fear it may not.

Note: I will leave it to others to explain why former President Trump said these things.  I don’t know if there is a reason other than, for former President Trump, everything is always about him.  I doubt there is another reason, but if somebody can come up with one, more power to them.

Ukraine: It’s Not What You Say; It’s What You Do

Coming back from the Munich Security Conference last Wednesday, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said: “This is our moment. … This is a Sudetenland.”  But, as I said in the title of this post, it’s not what you say, it’s what you do.

Is Speaker Pelosi willing to spend a little less on social programs, so we can spend more on defense?  Is she willing to authorize more drilling on federal lands, get more gas pipelines built, and fast-track the construction of liquified natural gas terminals in the U.S., so U.S. LNG can help replace Russian natural gas in Europe?

That is what you do if “this is our moment”; if “this is a Sudetenland.”  Saying it and not doing anything is what you do if it’s just PR.

Is Putin Really Invading Ukraine Because NATO Expanded?

As Vladimir Putin continues Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,¹ we hear a number of people saying that it is the fault (or at least mostly the fault) of the United States and the West.  We promised the USSR in 1990, and then Russia later, that NATO would not expand eastward.  Even if the promise was not formally written, it was implied.  The expansion of NATO threatened Russia.  They felt surrounded.  Etc.

Which may sound plausible.  The question, however, is whether it really would have made any difference if NATO had not expanded.  If countries in eastern Europe had not started applying to NATO in the 1990s, would Russia’s economic reforms have worked?  Would Boris Yeltsin have been able to create a real democracy in Russia?  Would the oligarchs have not stolen the country blind?  Russia’s internal chaos in the 1990s was not caused by the expansion of NATO.  It was caused by Russian incompetence. 

Does ESG Investing Allow a Country to Defend Itself?

A friend was mentioning the other day this great little app she has on her phone that helps her make sure the mutual funds she is investing in don’t own stock in companies that make guns.  Apparently, you put in the names of the mutual funds and it tells you whether they own stock in companies making guns. 

This is part of the ESG investing trend.  “ESG” stands for “Environmental, Social, Governance.”  The idea is to have a set of criteria that socially conscious investors can use to screen their investments.  “Environmental” criteria cover how a company performs with respect to environmental and sustainability standards.  “Social” criteria grade how a company manages its relationships with employees, suppliers, customers, and the communities where it operates, i.e., its stakeholders.  “Governance” looks at things like a company’s leadership, executive pay, audits, internal controls, and shareholder rights.

Gail Halvorsen, the “Candy Bomber.” RIP

Gail Halvorsen, who was known as “Candy Bomber” for dropping candy and sweets to the children of West Berlin while flying the Berlin Airlift in 1948, has passed away at the age of 101.  The story of the Airlift is amazing (as I have said before):

“In 1948, the Soviet Union blocked the western land routes to Berlin.  In response, and just three years after the Allies had defeated the Germans in a war that lasted almost six years for the British, the U.S. and Britain operated an around-the-clock airlift to supply West Berlin with everything it needed to survive, from food to coal.  The Airlift lasted fifteen months and turned enemies into fast friends.  It may have been the biggest defeat the Soviets suffered in the Cold War until the Wall itself came down in 1989.”¹ 

The story of the “Candy Bomber” and “Operation Little Vittles” may be even more amazing.  You can read about it here.²  You can read more about Colonel Halvorsen here.

What Ukraine Tells Us About Defense Spending. Hint: It’s Something a Lot of People Don’t Want to Hear.

The Biden administration seems to be doing a pretty good job with respect to the crisis Vladimir Putin created in Ukraine.¹  NATO appears to be united, though that may be more President Putin’s doing than President Biden’s.²  President Biden did have a couple of hiccups early on, but he wouldn’t be Joe Biden if he didn’t.  Since then, things have gone fairly well.  That part of the Biden administration strategy of “deterring by disclosing” is particularly interesting.³  For example, see the statements the U.S. made warning that the Russians were planning to stage a fake attack on Russia and then use the fake attack as an excuse for invading Ukraine.⁴  In the past, countries would have learned about that kind of thing through their intelligence activities, but they would have waited until the other side actually did it before talking about it.  The Biden administration is doing it differently.  It will be interesting to see how it turns out.

However, even if President Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine, President Biden still has a problem with what comes next.  What President Putin’s little adventure has shown is that Russia is not going to sit idly by while the United States turns its attention to China.  President Biden has learned, I hope, that we can’t just deal with China and ignore the rest of the world.

How Worried Should We Be About the China-Russia “Alliance”?

The big news of the opening weekend of the Winter Olympics, other than the Olympics itself, which wasn’t all that big, was the meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia.  The presidents signed an oil-gas deal and issued a joint statement opposing the expansion of NATO (the first time China had ever done that), criticizing the AUKUS security pact signed last year between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and more.₁ 

But how big of a deal is this challenge really?  The answer to that question is probably dependent on how big of a power you think Russia is going to be in ten or twenty years.  Mitt Romney recently quoted John McCain as saying that Russia is a gas station parading as a country.  Unfortunately, a combination of the economic rebound from the pandemic and Joe Biden’s restrictions on fracking and drilling in the U.S., and other things, has pushed up the price of oil and gas, making Vladimir Putin’s gas station more valuable.

We Don’t Just Need New Leaders in Washington. We Need a New Generation of Leaders.

Back in November, I wrote a post I titled “Other Countries Can Get Competent Leaders. Why Can’t We?”  I wrote after listening to an interview with Sir John Key, former Prime Minister of New Zealand, on “Walking the path to the next global financial crisis.”  His comments were on point and he explained things so well, I was depressed looking at our president and his predecessor.

Then on Wednesday, I watched an interview with Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia: