Russia Invading Ukraine in 2014 versus Russia Invading Ukraine in 2022

I was thinking about the way Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 versus the way they are doing it now.  In 2014, Russia’s invasion of Crimea was by “little green men”; i.e., soldiers not wearing Russian uniforms and with no insignias.  Their vehicles had no markings.  When Russia went into the Donbas in 2014, it was much the same.  The Russians said it was just local people.  When Russian soldiers were sighted in the Donbas, the response was that they were just on vacation. 

But this year, the Russians haven’t tried to hide anything.  It’s Russian soldiers, Russian tanks, Russian planes.  It’s clear and obvious. 

So why the difference between 2014 and 2022?  It could be because it’s a bigger invasion this time.  Russia is trying to take over the whole country.  That would be hard to hide.  Also, it seems Vladimir Putin was planning on something fast and easy.  A quick capture of Kyiv.  Toppling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and putting in a Russian puppet.  Maybe the real question is: Why did the President Putin think he could get away with it?

Did the President Putin think that Russia was so much stronger this time he could just do it?  Or did he see the U.S. as so much weaker – because of Obama’s hesitancy, Trump’s incoherence, and Biden just being Biden – that he didn’t think that we would, or could, do anything to stop him? Or was it both?

I don’t know the answers to those questions, but it’s pretty clear we have a lot of work to do to re-establish our strength, reliability, and credibility – not just in Europe but around the world.  To do it will take both money and a willingness to make the kind of hard decisions we have been avoiding recently.¹  Vladimir Putin has given us a chance to do it.  Whether we do it is up to us.
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¹ As former Defense Secretary and former CIA Director Robert M. Gates said in The Washington Post: “Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has ended Americans’ 30-year holiday from history.”