It’s an old joke: Dogs are always chasing buses (among other things). But do they have any idea what they would do if they actually caught it?
Which is what happened to Republicans on both Obamacare and Roe v. Wade.1 After Obamacare passed, the Republicans had a clear position on what they would do if they got back in power: Repeal it. It was simple, and the House, which flipped to the Republicans in the 2010 election, voted to repeal Obamacare a number of times. Of course, it was easy to do. Until the 2014 election, the Democrats still controlled the Senate, so no repeal passed by the House would ever become law and it didn’t matter much about the details.
The problem came when the Republicans actually caught the bus in November 2016. Not only did the Republicans kept control of the House and Senate, but also Donald Trump won the presidency. Now, the Republicans really could repeal Obamacare. But now, it also mattered what they were going to put in place of Obamacare. Ultimately, they couldn’t agree, so Obamacare stayed in place.
The same thing has happened since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. For years, Republicans called for Roe to be overturned. Some Republicans said the Supreme Court shouldn’t be deciding these issues; the states should. Others wanted to prohibit all abortion (with maybe a few exceptions). But they never had to do the hard work of coming up with the actual details of a program that they could sell to the American public. All they had to do was just call for Roe to be overturned.
But then came the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe. Once again, the Republicans had caught the bus. Once again, they had to come up with real legislation. They could no longer just shout slogans. They had to really think about abortion: Should it be prohibited? Should there be exceptions? What should the exceptions be? Should abortion be allowed for some period of time? If so, how long; how many weeks? Should different rules apply to minors? These were the kinds of questions that didn’t matter before Roe was overturned, but mattered a lot once it was overturned.
It was easy to say “Overturn Roe”. It is hard to figure out what to pass now that Roe is gone. You have to deal with all kinds of difficult questions and you have to make tough decisions. Just like trying to get rid of Obamacare, with Roe gone, you have to actually come up with a law that answers the difficult questions and is acceptable to a majority of the people. That is hard work. It is not just political posturing; it’s real legislating. And Republicans haven’t seemed like they were willing – or able – to do it.
With the election in Tuesday, it looks like the Republicans may have caught the bus again. It looks like they will eventually win the House, and with a run-off in Georgia probably deciding who controls the Senate, they may win that, too.2 In other words, they may actually have some power. Or at least a chance to show the voters what they believe in and what they would do if they win the presidency, too, in 2024. But will they? That is the question I asked in my post of November 5. As I said there, I have some doubts about whether they will look to the future or just complain about the past.
In any case, the bottom line is that the Republicans may have caught the bus yet again. The question is whether they will, this time, know what to do with it.
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1 I am sure this has happened to Democrats, too, but I will let them address their situations.
2 Based on what happened in the last Senate run-offs in Georgia, the Republicans’ best chance of winning may be to keep Donald Trump as far away from Georgia as possible.
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