“The Road Less Traveled” by Philip Zelikow: A Great History with Mindboggling What-Ifs

Here is a gift for almost anybody on your Christmas list: The Road Less Traveled: The Secret Battle to End the Great War, 1916-17, by Philip Zelikow.^1,2  This is a fascinating book on several levels.  First, it is a great history of the efforts and discussions among the Germans, British, French, and Americans on the Great War and how it might be ended in 1916 or early 1917.  As you read Professor Zelikow’s account, you see an end to the war just beyond the reach of the parties.  Each party wants the war to end, but they can never seem to get there at the same time.  Even knowing that the efforts will fail, the book grips the reader and pulls them along.

Second, the book is, in a way, a story of alternate history.  As we see the possibility of an end to the Great War in 1916 or early 1917, we can’t help but think: Would such a peace have been so bitter for Germany as the Treaty of Versailles?  If the war had ended before the Tsar was overthrown, what would have happened in Russia: might the Tsar might have stayed in power; might Kerensky have succeeded?  Perhaps most importantly, the likelihood of a successful Bolshevik revolution would have been small.  The idea of a world with neither Hitler nor Stalin is amazing.  And there are all those people who would not have died.

Third, in explaining why the efforts to end the Great War failed, Professor Zelikow talks about the role of diplomacy – and diplomats – play in history.  The bottom line (my conclusion) is that United States President Woodrow Wilson just did not have the skill set necessary to achieve a negotiated end to the war.  It really wasn’t President Wilson’s fault.  He just didn’t know how to do it, and he didn’t have the advisers and staff who could have helped him learn.   You get the feeling that Teddy Roosevelt, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906 “for his role in bringing to an end” the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05, might have been able to do it.  In President Wilson’s discussions with Herbert Hoover, you see somebody else who might have been able to do it.  But President Wilson could not do it.  He didn’t know how; it wasn’t the kind of thing he had ever done.

Professor Zelikow’s discussion of the failure of President Wilson’s diplomacy is particularly interesting given that Professor Zelikow served in the George H.W. Bush administration, a prime case where a skilled president backed by highly competent staff was able to achieve great things; in President Bush’s case, peace, and freedom, in Europe without war. 

Which perhaps brings us to the last important point of the book: the role of contingency in politics, diplomacy, and war.  Things in 1916-17 could have been so different.  But a combination of bad timing and the wrong people resulted in two almost more years of war – and so much else afterward.
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¹ I have added the book to “Books Worth Reading” in the left sidebar.
² While the book was published in 2021, it is as good now as it was last year.