We have a problem in Ukraine. Things were going great, but now they’re getting tougher for Ukraine. There is only so much that Ukrainian grit and Russian incompetence can accomplish. Also, while we can continue to rely on Ukrainian skill and bravery, we cannot assume Russia will always be stupid.
To shift the odds back in Ukraine’s favor, we need to ship more weapons to Ukraine, especially offensive weapons. And even more especially tanks. Nobody (except, of course, countries like Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, who understand what Russia can do, because it has done it to them) has wanted to send tanks to Ukraine. But that is changing. The UK is sending some Challenger tanks. The United States says Abrams tanks are too complicated for the Ukrainians to use and maintain, etc. Germany doesn’t want to send its Leopard 2 tanks either. While Germany has never wanted to send tanks (they claim they don’t want to escalate the war. Huh? Russia invaded eleven months ago and is now sending mass rocket attacks at Ukrainian civilians, And it would be the Germans who would be escalating?), they are now using the argument that they won’t send tanks unless the United States will, too.
If the United States is willing to do that, here’s my idea of a conversation President Biden could have with Chancellor Scholz:
“Olaf, we have a problem. This war isn’t going to end any time soon – unless we can help the Ukrainians win. We didn’t know that at the beginning, but we do now. Also, let’s admit we’ve both made a bunch of mistakes. Our “bugging out” of Afghanistan didn’t help. It may have encouraged Putin. Donald Trump didn’t help anything, either.
On the other hand, you guys haven’t been spending on defense. Angela Merkel would promise to increase defense spending, but she never did it. And she kept Germany’s economy in hock to Russia for its cheap energy.
Also, we both had bosses that screwed up when Vlad invaded Ukraine for the first time back in 2014. President Obama wouldn’t even send anti-tank missiles to Ukraine back then. He said he didn’t want to escalate the situation. That certainly didn’t work well, and I have to apologize to Zelenskyy about that. Chancellor Merkel didn’t do any better. She kept approving Nord Stream pipelines, thinking that being buddy-buddy with Vlad and buying Russian gas was the answer; i.e., the “Wandel durch Handel” theory. You can apologize for that one.
We both have to make up for our mistakes. You have said Germany won’t send Leopard tanks, unless the United States sends Abrams tanks. Well, we’re sending them. I don’t know if the Ukrainians can use them, but it doesn’t matter. We’re sending them anyway. I don’t know if they can go by air or they have to go by sea, but they’re going.
So, here’s the deal. I took it as a promise that, if the US sent Abrams tanks, the Germany would send Leopard tanks. Now, I don’t want you tell me you didn’t say exactly that and you still need to look at all of questions. That doesn’t cut it. In any case, Ukraine probably doesn’t need tanks from Germany. We don’t know how many of them work, anyway. What Ukraine needs is for Germany to not object when other countries, that bought Leopards from Germany, want to send them on to Ukraine.
And here is the deal. If you still object to those transfers, we’re going to tell those countries that, if they are still willing to transfer their Leopard tanks to Ukraine, we will indemnify them and protect them against any claim you bring against them, whether in court or anywhere else.
Obviously, this is not something we have mentioned to anybody and I’m not sending any letter or email to anybody about we are talking about. Our countries have been friends for a long time, since the Belin Airlift. We don’t want to embarrass anybody, but this war has to end. We’re going to send our tanks. I hope Germany will follow through on what it has been saying. But if Germany still won’t send tanks, or at least not object to other countries sending tanks to Kiev that they bought from Germany, then we’re going to have to do what I said and we’re going to have to go public about it. I’m sorry. I really don’t want to do it. That’s why I wanted to talk to you first, just between us. I hope you understand that I know the US can’t force Germany to send tanks, etc., just because we say so. But we, like you, have to do what we think is necessary. And this is one of those things.
Just one final request: Before you say no, go out to Truman Plaza on Clayallee and look at the statue of Baron Friedrich Wilhelm von Steuben. I’m told it’s a great place.”
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UPDATE (1/21 6:40 am): Thee Wall Street Journal reports today: “German officials initially said they wouldn’t approve sending Leopards unless the U.S. provided its own Abrams tanks, which the U.S. has so far declined to do, saying they are too difficult to maintain. Germany’s new defense minister, Boris Pistorius, has told German television that German and U.S. tanks don’t need to be provided at the same time and indicated that his government was still weighing what to do.” In other words, I’d still like to see the “conversation.”
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