Ukraine and the Failure of Sanctions – One More Time

I’m sorry to keep harping on the failure of sanctions, but it’s important because they are not working, or at least not doing enough, in Russia’s war against Ukraine.  As I mentioned here, there were two articles in the Financial Times last week about how sanctions against Russia are being violated and how they are aren’t getting the job done. 

There was another article in yesterday’s FT¹, this one about the “ghost trade” in dual-use goods.  Dual-use goods are products that can be used for civilian purposes and for military or intelligence purposes.  The ghost trade is when goods are ordered by a company in one country and never show up there.  What is happening, among other things, is that the dual-use goods are ordered by companies in places such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia and are shipped, from EU countries, through Russia to get to their destination,  But the goods are never arriving.  They are disappearing.

Public data reviewed by the FT found that, of a $2 billion sample of controlled dual-use goods, only half got to their listed destinations.  And this was just a sample.  The total is more.  Plus there are all the countries out there that aren’t agreeing to follow the sanctions.  I’m not saying that the sanctions aren’t hurting Russia; I’m just saying that they aren’t doing enough – and they never can.  There are too many loopholes; there are too many people and countries willing to violate them. 

Which means that this war is not going to be won by sanctions, but on the battlefield.  The United States has to decide if we are willing to help Ukraine do that.
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¹ Chris Cook, Federica Cocco, and Max Seddon, “‘Ghost trade’ in EU exports fuels Kremlin war machine,” Financial Times, May 11, 2023.