The View from Right Field

Why Should Anybody Trust Us? The Joe Biden Edition – #2

I wrote posts with this title (or at least this idea) during the Obama administration (here and here) and the Trump administration (here).  (Since this blog only started in April 2006, I might not have written one about the George W. Bush administration.) 

I also wrote one about Joe Biden’s abrupt abandonment of Afghanistan.¹  We had allies there with us, but President Biden decided to leave without consulting them.  He wanted to leave (he had wanted to leave since Obama’s first term), and he wasn’t going to let facts or friends, or anything else, get in the way of what he wanted to do.

And so, we have Friday’s decision to halt the permitting of terminals for exporting liquified natural gas.  President Biden claimed it was about the climate crisis, but it was really about the political crisis.  He wants to get reelected.  After 32 years, he finally got to be President and he doesn’t want to give it up – and he doesn’t much care what he has to do to keep it.

If Trump Is a Threat to Democracy, What If He Wins?

President Biden is campaigning hard on the idea that former President Trump is a threat to democracy.  I understand why he is doing this.  President Biden does not have great approval ratings, so he has to play to his strength – which is how bad his supporters think former President Trump is.  Attacking Trump as a threat to democracy is not going to sway many Trump supporters, but it might help a little on the margin if Trump says something crazier than normal for even him or if he gets convicted.  That might sway a few people in the middle.  Also, attacking Trump as a threat to democracy might motivate Biden’s supporters to get and vote.  The two of those together might be enough for Biden to beat Trump again.

The question I have, however, is this: If Biden spends the whole campaign talking about Trump being a threat to democracy, what happens if Trump wins the election?  It’s a long way to November, and polls this early don’t mean much, but they do indicate Trump and Biden are just about tied (Trump is actually a little ahead in some polls).  And Trump doesn’t need to win the popular vote; he just needs to win the Electoral College.  He won the Electoral College in 2016 while trailing Hillary Clinton by almost three million votes.  In 2020, he lost to Biden by seven million votes and still got very close in the Electoral College.  He could lose the popular vote in 2024 and still win the Electoral College.  And based on what the polls say, he could even win the popular vote.  If he does that, the Electoral College might not even be close.

37th Annual Cubs Convention – January 12-14, 2024

Back to the Cubs Convention after a four-year break.  I went in 2020, just before Covid.  There were no conventions in 2021 or 2022 (because of stupid Covid), and then I had a little issue last year.  So, it took a while, but I am finally up to 30 Conventions (out of 37; I missed the first four, then 2005, 2017, and last year). 

It was a lot different this year than it had been recently, but that was fine – and great – because Tad and Ruth were coming (along with Ross and Emily, of course). 

We watched Friday night’s Opening Ceremonies and “Off the Mound with Ryan Dempster” on Marquee at home.  It was easier and cheaper (didn’t have to drive; didn’t have to pay to park).  Plus you had a really good view and you did not have to sit/stand for an hour or more before the Opening Ceremonies started.  Wayne Messmer sang the Anthem, which is great!

If We Really Care About Ukraine, Why Not Do What Teddy Roosevelt Did

According to last Monday’s Wall Street Journal:

“The Washington stalemate over U.S. policy at the southern border is beginning to reverberate on the Ukraine battlefield, where Kyiv’s troops are running out of ammunition and the Pentagon says it can’t provide more without emptying its own arsenal. …

Short of congressional approval of more funding, the White House can either dip into the Pentagon’s arsenal with no guarantee the gear will be replaced, or leave Ukraine to rely on its own growing but still small arms industry and European allies.”

The Advantage of Living in Illinois

Sometimes I wonder why I keep living in Illinois.  What with the political corruption (do I really need to list it all?), the incompetent governments (see, inter alia, the mindboggling debt of the public employee pension plans and the “progressive paradise “of Brandon Johnson’s Chicago), and so much more, there aren’t all that many obvious advantages to living in Illinois (other than grandchildren and the Cubs, of course).

But as the 2024 Presidential contest proceeds, inexorably, it seems, to a repeat of 2020’s Biden-Trump horror show, there is one major advantage of living in Illinois: You don’t have to vote for either one of them – because Biden will win Illinois.  Even though even one vote can matter, and has (see here), one vote, or even one hundred thousand votes, isn’t going to make a difference in the 2024 Presidential race in Illinois.  Biden is going to win Illinois by a lot of votes, and he is going to get Illinois’s 19 electoral votes.¹  Which means I don’t have to vote for either Biden or Trump.  And that is the advantage of living in Illinois.² 
---------
¹ It says something about Illinois that, when John F. Kennedy “won” Illinois in 1960, he got 27 electoral votes.  When Joe Biden wins Illinois in 2024, he’ll get 19.
² It is also the advantage of the Electoral College.

Insurrections: 1861 and January 6. 2021

As I understand it, both the Colorado Supreme Court and the Secretary of State of Maine have decided Donald Trump cannot be listed on the Republican Party primary ballot for President in their states because his actions on January 6, 2021, disqualify him from being President.  Because, in the words of the Fourteenth Amendment, he “engaged in insurrection or rebellion” against the United States.¹ 

I am not an expert on the Fourteenth Amendment or what constitutes “insurrection” or “rebellion” under United States laws.  However, I would like to try a thought experiment on both 1861 and 2021 and ask whether, if history had played out differently on those dates, what might have happened would be considered “insurrection or rebellion”.

Shale, f/k/a Fracking, Does It Again

According to today’s The Wall Street Journal:

“A surprise surge in American oil and gas production and exports is helping to keep the world stocked, blunting the impact of widening conflict in the Middle East that has crimped key shipping lanes. 

When Iranian-backed Houthi militants began launching missiles and drones at ships crossing the Red Sea near Yemen in October, many feared disruption to the vital shipping lane would drive up energy prices. But oil and gas prices this past month have sunk about 5% and 23%, respectively.