What’s Going to Happen in the Middle East?

Obviously, if I knew the answer to this, I would go to Las Vegas and get rich.  But here is one possibility with respect to how Iran/Hezbollah may react to the killings of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran:

1. Remember that Iran did basically nothing when the U.S. killed Qasam Soleimani in January of 2020 in a drone attack on Baghdad airport when Soleimani was visiting Iraq.  Soleimani was  commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC group responsible for Iran’s extraterritorial and clandestine military operations.

2. Iran follows U.S. politics.  They know about the Biden-Trump debate.  Like everybody else, they have to wonder how competent Biden is and who is running U.S. foreign policy.

3. Iran also has to wonder if the U.S. can control Bibi Netanyahu’s reaction to any retaliatory attack Iran and/or Hezbollah may make on Israel.  Netanyahu is almost impossible for a strong U.S. president to control.  Could Joe Biden restrain Netanyahu’s further reaction in response to any Iranian/etc. retaliation?  Does Iran want to take that risk?

4. Iran may decide they are better off to limit any retaliatory strike and then wait to see who wins in November – and hope for a Harris victory.  Because even if Harris can’t control Netanyahu (assuming he is still in office), she may not support Israel as much as Biden and his administration has (up to this point).